What if Kristi Yamaguchi hadn't won Olympic gold in 1992?

[essence_of_soy]

If Midori Ito hadn't caved under media expectation and won Olympic gold in 1992, Kristi Yamaguchi was intending to stay in eligible competition until 1994.

Would Kristi have beaten Oksana Baiul at the 1993 worlds?
Would Kristi and not Nancy Kerrigan been the focus of attack at
the Detroit nationals.
Would Kristi have worked on a triple axel?

Your thoughts would be more than appreciated.

[Flatfoote]

Interesting question!

I am not professing to be an expert, but here's what I think could have happened....

Kristi probably would have won Worlds in 93, thus securing three spots for the US in 94 (we only had two in real life that year, right?).

The "Dumb and Dumber" gang in 94 would have to have seen that Kristie and Nancy were out of the way to make sure Tonya was in the number one spot. I would like to think that even they were'nt stupid enough to try and take out two opponents.

The hit may have never happened. Kristie, Nancy and Tonya would have gone to the Olympics in 94, and maybe Tonya would even have a career right now.

We'll never know. Anyone remember that short lived show Sliders? Where the stars "slid" into alternate worlds where different events led to different results? This would have been a good Sliders episode!

[bcskater]

Originally posted by essence_of_soy

Would Kristi have worked on a triple axel?
I'm pretty sure that she had been working on the 3axel. I remember a clip of Kristi working with her coach, Ness, on triple axels at Royal Glenora. I'm pretty sure it was a tape from the 1991 season prior to Kristi winning her first world title.

[DBZ]

Originally posted by bcskater
I'm pretty sure that she had been working on the 3axel. I remember a clip of Kristi working with her coach, Ness, on triple axels at Royal Glenora. I'm pretty sure it was a tape from the 1991 season prior to Kristi winning her first world title.

The network did a couple of fluff pieces on Kristi and Tonya during the 1991 worlds, and during one piece they did indeed show clips of Kristi attempting triple axels in practice with her coach.

She didn't come close to landing them, however. They showed two attempts and both were badly underrotated, causing her to fall on each.

I think whether she kept working on it or not would've depended on two factors:

1. Whether Midori stayed amateur or not after 92. Even if Ito won Olympic gold in 92, she might've decided to stick around. If so, then I imagine she would've continued to push ladies skating technically, so maybe having a triple axel would've been a necessity.

2. Same goes for Harding. By 94, she became lazy and unfocused, and wasn't nearly the threat she was in 1991. So I think it would've also depended on whether Tonya was still pushing the technical envelope.

If Midori retired and Harding continued to slack off, then I don't think a triple axel would've been necessary. Kristi was already doing more technically at that time than most ladies, landing 6-7 triple performances (with two lutzes and a triple/triple) when most women were doing 5 triple programs with only one lutz.

[roogu]

and more interestingly enough, if Kristi stayed until 94 ... would Michelle have made such a bang at nationals that year, finishing 2nd? and then placing 8th at worlds? Makes you wonder how Michelle ... and Tara's careers would have panned out, had Kristi stayed for an extra two years! ;)

Just to add to that, would any of the 'baby ballerinas' .. Nam, Kirk, Cohen moved up to senior so fast? Talk about a perfect Sliders! haha :)

[Inside Edge]

I don't think that there would have been any change for Michelle or Tara. Kristy probably would have won gold in 1994 after winning the 1993 Worlds. Both Kristy & Nancy would have retired in 1994. Tonya also would have been out of the picture after 1994. I think that Oksana would have been effected the most. She most likely would have won silver or bronze in 1994 and not retired until later. I don't think she would have remained competitive until 1998. She never would have won gold. Who knows she may have had a better life if she had not won a gold medal.

[duane]

i've always loved this particular "what if" question!

if kristi hadnt won Olympic gold in 92, i think she would have easily won World gold in 93 and Olympic gold in 94, and without the 3axel. kristi's LP would have likely consisted of the 3lutz/3toe, 3flip, 3toe, 3loop, 2sal, and 3lutz. this difficulty--as well as her great artistry--would have easily won in 93 & 94. heck, this LP would win today!

regarding the WACK: i think it's very likely that jeff and his goons (personally, i dont think tonya knew of the attack beforehand) would have targeted kristi. she had always been more a threat to tonya than nancy. i think kristi would have been targeted, and the goons would have hoped that nancy was her normally error-prone self (and she probably would have been).

i agree that oksana would have been most affected, and probably would have never won World or Olympic gold if kristi had remained eligible. remember, after 94, oksana had a serious growth spurt--five inches! i dont think anyone would have been able to oversome such a spurt, and continue landing difficult triples.

[what?meworry?]

i find "alternate realities" questions really interesting. regarding the "dumb and dumber" issue, i think given two "targets" needed to take out, nothing would have happened. tonya (whom i believe was very involved in the plan) would have focused on her skating and possibly pulled it off.

[Darrell H]

You also have to consider that Nancy would not have stayed around that long. With Kristi still around, Nancy would not have been going for the Gold. Tonya also might have left then.

[Alexeiskate]

Originally posted by duane
i've always loved this particular "what if" question!

if kristi hadnt won Olympic gold in 92, i think she would have easily won World gold in 93 and Olympic gold in 94, and without the 3axel. kristi's LP would have likely consisted of the 3lutz/3toe, 3flip, 3toe, 3loop, 2sal, and 3lutz. this difficulty--as well as her great artistry--would have easily won in 93 & 94. heck, this LP would win today!


If Midori was out of the picture in 94 then I don't think Kristi would have kept the 3-3 in her program. I could see Oksana's swan lake short giving Kristi a run for first place, because that short was amazing. Although I don't think the judges would have been brave enough to put Oksana over Kristi at that point in time. However, in the long I could totally see the judges favoring Kristi's style and technical content over the broadway's program of Oksana, although I still think that Kristi was simply doing "what she's told" on the ice as oppose to actually feeling and skating with the music like Oksana was doing (just my personal opinion).

[jwcardinal11]

Personally, I think Kristi's triple lutz-triple toe was so solid that she would have kept it in even if other ladies were not doing them. Just look at her professional career ... she has maintained each of her four good triples throughout - even the loop, which any other skater would have abandoned considering it wasn't her most consistent jump.

This "What If" also brings this up: What if Nicole had kept it together and won 1995 Worlds? Chen Lu won with only 5 triples, Nicole had already had four before she fell on her loop. It would have been very possible (considering her standing after the short) for her to have won the event easily. In any case, this would have almost definitely assured her a bye to Worlds in 1996, kicking Tara out. And with Tara out of 96 Worlds, her inexperience may not have been able to carry through to 1997 ... and so forth.

My two cents.

[hoptoad]

Hmm, so what happened at 93 Worlds that the US only earned two spots for the 94 Olympics? And what would have changed if the US had had three?

[Alexeiskate]

NK was first after the short program but then had a melt down in the long and finished 5th overall, I think.

I don't remember who was the other American lady or where she finished.

[roogu]

I think it was Tonia Kwiatkowski who was the other person at 93 worlds, but she failed to make it out of qualifying. But back then, the point system wasn't in place so it didn't really matter where Tonia finished. It mattered where Nancy finished though because a country had to place in the top 3 to get 3 spots for next season.

[JockProf]

This "What If" also brings this up: What if Nicole had kept it together and won 1995 Worlds? Chen Lu won with only 5 triples, Nicole had already had four before she fell on her loop. It would have been very possible (considering her standing after the short) for her to have won the event easily. In any case, this would have almost definitely assured her a bye to Worlds in 1996, kicking Tara out. And with Tara out of 96 Worlds, her inexperience may not have been able to carry through to 1997 ... and so forth.


*************************

Actually, if this "alternate universe" was a reality, Tara would have not been eligible to go to 1997 worlds because she was too young. In our universe she was onlly allowed to go because she had particiapted in the 1996 worlds. Had she not participated in those worlds, she would not have made the age requirements for either the 1997 worlds or 1998 Olympics. Talk about an alternate universe!!

[jwcardinal11]

That is very true ... that never entered my mind. Tara finished 4th at 95 Junior Worlds and 5th at 96 Junior Worlds. Conceivably, she could have medalled at 97 Junior Worlds and be exempted from the age restrictions.

And as for 1993 Worlds ... the US sent Nancy Kerrigan, Lisa Ervin, and Tonia Kwiatkowski (personally, I thought Tonya Harding should have finished third and got the third spot). Nancy was indeed in the lead going into the long, but fell to 5th. Lisa Ervin finished 13th. Tonia Kwiatkowski did not make it through qualifying. Because of Lisa's 13th place finish, the US was only allowed to send 2 women to the 94 Olympics and Worlds.

[Flatfoote]

I'm not sure if Lisa's 13th place finish caused the US to only send two ladies.

I was under the impression the point system wasn't in place yet, and a country had to have someone place in the top three to secure 3 spots for the next year. So, that would mean poor Nancy's meltdown actually caused the loss of one spot..

[md2be]

At the Ultimate 4 in Dec of 96, Kwan and Yamaguchi met for the first time. Kwan won, both with flawless programs.

With Kwan sprinting up the ranks in 92-96, would this match have taken place earlier, and would Kwan have been "mature" enough to beat her?