US Senior Men

[Scott]

I noted that Matt Savoie has now graduated from college. The question is will he now focus completely on training and maybe develop his quad? I expect that he could be a second place finisher at US Nationals this year. If he has no quad will there be anybody else to challenge him? What other men can we expect to round out the top five? Will there be any surproses by new faces coming from the Jr. ranks?

[Trillian]

Savoie and Weiss should probably be in closer competition internationally than they were last year, but I wouldn't expect either of them to challenge Goebel at nationals unless he has an off competition. I see Weir as the odd man out unless he starts trying (and landing) quads, and even that will depend on whether Savoie's landing them as well. At any rate, I don't see anyone challenging these guys in the top four.

Just past that, I hope to see Derrick Delmore keep building on the momentum he had last season--he'd have a pretty solid shot at fifth at nationals if he does. Ryan Jahnke should remain in the mix as usual, and I expect an upward move from Scott Smith as well. I'm not sure what to think about Ryan Bradley, since his skating has been pretty sloppy lately--his technical mark isn't going anywhere, and eventually the judges will stop rewarding him on the second mark for simply being charming. (I'm sorry, I don't even begin to understand how he could beat Jahnke without outjumping him substantially, which he generally doesn't do.) A few other guys from lower in last year's standings who should be watched are Lysacek, Pennington, and Ward. All of them will need to do a better job than they have at either putting down the jumps or presenting their programs (or both), but all of them have top ten potential. I don't see any of last year's juniors being major players, since Nick LaRoche doesn't have a triple axel and the rest of those moving up are either undeveloped or inconsistent. Chances are we won't have any new seniors in the top ten, just as we didn't this year.

[haribobo]

Well Shaun Rogers has been inconsistent in the past, but I definitely think he is capable of a top 10 finish since he can land a beauty of a triple axel. I wouldn't bet on it this year, but it surely could happen. Still, he will be subject to the first-year-in-seniors jinx that almost all skaters face. I think top 5 will still be Goebel, Weiss, Savoie, Weir, and Delmore barring disasters or meltdowns. Smith, Pennington, Jahnke, and Bradley, and Lysacek should be the next five...
11-15 will probably include Rogers, LaRoche, Dillon, Lind, and Miller......after that I guess the rest of the Pac Coast guys and whoever else makes nationals. Braden Overett could hit the top 10 if he improves on consistency and can get through sectionals...

I really have to wonder how many more years we will see Weiss, Dillon, Jahnke, and Bradley competing in singles, though. I would imagine that these 4 will be the next to retire and/or go pro....though Bradley may continue to do pairs.

[Aaron W]

It'll be interesting to see how Matt fares with the judges this year at Nationals. Looking back at the past 4 Nationals, he's always had bad luck with them. In 1999, he placed 4th on a 5/4 split behind Tim Goebel who had a terrible free skate. In 2000, he lost to both Tim & Mike in the short program - both of whom he should have been placed ahead of. In 2001, he arguably skated a better free skate than Todd Eldredge, yet was placed behind him. In 2002, he made one mistake in the entire competition and ends up being placed behind someone who made 5 mistakes throughout the event - the major problem being Matt's placement in the short program. He has a hard time ever getting much in the way of respect from the American judges, so I'm not overly confident that even if he skates his best and Tim and/or Mike are off, the judges will finally give him the nod. I'll be cheering him on though. My confidence in the US judges is low though.

I definitely expect Weir to be challenging Tim, Matt, & Mike for a podium finish, the later two especially. After that, I think it's completely up in the air. Delmore has been too sporadic for me to feel he's definitely going to end up in the top 5 or 6. If he can skate reasonably well though, I can't think of too many others who could be placed ahead of him so 5th place should be his. But he can't screw up in the short program like he's done in the past. If Braden Overett could just find some consistency, I could definitely see him challenging for a spot in the final group and a top 6 finish. He's a pleasant skater to watch with a nice triple axel, so I'll have my fingers crossed for him that he can at least qualify for Nationals. Ryan Jahnke I enjoy extremely, but the lack of a triple axel will continue to hurt him. It would be nice to see him make the final group so that we could finally see him compete in the free skate.

It'll be really interesting to see who actually make it out of Midwestern Sectionals and qualify for Nationals: Jahnke, Bradley, Pennington, Lysacek, Ward, Overett, Clausen, & even Lee all seem to be main contendors.

[Artistic Skaters]

I hope this will be a great year for Derrick, Scott, & Shaun ...

[haribobo]

Hopefully the USFSA will assign Bradley and Jahnke to Zagreb so they can bypass sectionals...thus opening the field up a little bit...

If that happens, the battle will be among Pennington, Lysacek, Ward, Miller, Overett, and maybe Clausen and Lee.

[mikey]

[quote:335f919a7a="haribobo"]11-15 will probably include Rogers, LaRoche, Dillon, Lind, and Miller......[/quote:335f919a7a]

I still think Justin Dillon has a good chance of staying in the top 10...

[Scott]

I can't believe that Weiss is going to compoete this season. I truely believe that he peaked and should retire and I can see judges looking to give other men a chance if they show potential. If Mike falters in any way i think that he will fall from the ranks like a rock. I think that Matt will pass him by and probably Johhny Weir. However, both of these guys have got to get the quad down. If they don't they won't be around long as others are waiting to take up the challenge. I don't know but it seems as if American men are having the most difficult time mastering this jump. If you look at US top finishers from last years nationals only Tim was consistant.

I also see potential in Parker Pennington. But I believe he needs to develop his artistic marks. He can jump and as long as he maintains his confidence he should be able to move up. I don't know however if he can do a quad, or if he has even tried.

I think that one of the most personable skaters the US has is Ryan Bradley. With some solid coaching and and focused determntaion on his part I think he could soar! I just don't know if he has it in him however.

[Aaron W]

The problem with Parker Pennington & Ryan Bradley is that their triple axels are extremely inconsistent. I'm not sure Ryan has even landed one yet and Parker seemed to have been hitting the jump better a couple of years ago. It's almost as if he's progressed backwards on this jump. Maybe his triple axel will start to show up again this season, but I'm not very confident that Ryan's will. I believe Ryan's been working on the quad toe loop, but I really think he needs the triple axel more than the quad to be truly competitive at the US Nationals. The triple axel is what measures everyone against each other with the quad being a separating factor for those with a triple axel aiming for the title. IMO you can win the US title without a quad, but you can't without a triple axel. Ryan Jahnke is living proof of this. He's one of the best American male skaters in the business, yet hasn't even made it into the final group at Nationals yet because of an inconsistent triple axel - this despite his almost god-like status in his basic skating. Tim Goebel has both fairly consistent, so that's why he's the main contendor for the title. Michael Weiss has neither consistent which explains why he's almost always hanging on for dear life while Matt has the triple axel fairly consistent giving him a clear edge over most American men.

[ChicaTica]

[quote:ba6a35e028="mikey"][quote:ba6a35e028="haribobo"]11-15 will probably include Rogers, LaRoche, Dillon, Lind, and Miller......[/quote:ba6a35e028]

I still think Justin Dillon has a good chance of staying in the top 10...[/quote:ba6a35e028]

My sources tell me that Justin Dillon will not be competing this up coming year. Of course, it is early enough in the season for him to change his mind.

--ChicaTica

[Rachael]

I read an interview with Parker and he said that he is working on the quad. I'll find it and link it.

[lBrokenAnkle]

I have some vague memory that Matt had an injury early in last season? Am I remembering that correctly? Anyway, I would be thrilled if he could challenge Weiss.

Laura

[Aaron W]

That's correct. Matt was suffering from a groin injury at the beginning of the season. I believe he suffered it in July, 2001.

[Meredith]

[quote:5c6853402e="ChicaTica"] My sources tell me that Justin Dillon will not be competing this up coming year. Of course, it is early enough in the season for him to change his mind.[/quote:5c6853402e]I hope your sources are wrong. They probably aren't, but . . . I particilarly enjoyed Justin's skating at LA Nationals and was looking forward to seeing more of him.

[Scott]

Aaron, I think that you are correct about parker Pennington and Ryan Bradley. Hoever, I wonder if the lack of consistency with the triple axel may have to do with the dfact that both of this guys grew in the past two years. Parker used to be considerable shorter and the additional of more "body" may have caused him to slip back a little. My quess is that he will over come this.

I also think that you are correct about Michael Weiss. However, as much as I like Matt Savoie I find that he needs more presentation skills. He does the elements but the programs are rough. I really think he needs some ice dancing and ballet training.

[Orable]

Scott, maybe Matt does need to up his presentation skills, though I'd rather send Timothy to ballet class! lol...anyway, I think Matt is a very introverted skater, and while I have no problem with that myself, I'm sure teh judges probably take off for it, and the audience might not feel a connection to him.

[nymkfan51]

I don't see anyone really challenging Timmy for the top spot next year. I also think it's pretty understandable why Michael Weiss would want to compete next year, with Worlds being in his backyard.
On a personal note ... I would LOVE to see Johnny Weir do well ... I think he is such a beautiful skater ... just not sure he will ever have the jumps to seriously challenge the top competitors.

[Mel On Ice]

I hope Rohene Ward can crack the top 10. Year after year, I've grown more impressed with his abilities.

I've tried liking Parker Pennington's skating, but he really bores me. Music? Costume? Can't pin it down.

[Ellyn]

[quote:10c0887873="Orable"]Scott, maybe Matt does need to up his presentation skills, though I'd rather send Timothy to ballet class! lol...[/quote:10c0887873]

Well, there's always room for improvement and both those skaters can certainly do morel to improve their presentation skills, to various degrees. Ballet training is one means to do so but not the only one.

[quote:10c0887873]anyway, I think Matt is a very introverted skater, and while I have no problem with that myself, I'm sure teh judges probably take off for it, and the audience might not feel a connection to him.[/quote:10c0887873]

I don't think judges take *off* for introversion at all. And obviously some audience members, who have posted here, feel enough of a connection to be rooting for Savoie to do well.

However, if a skater is particularly charismatic, which usually occurs with more extroverted skaters, they may convince judges that they are presenting their programs with more conviction and get some intangible extra credit that skaters without that charisma don't get.

Hwoever, I think that any skater, including introverted ones (look at the improvement in Todd Eldredge's presentation in the past 8 years), can gain more credit for presentation by performing every move with conviction, attack, strength (yes, physical strength and power definitely count, and speed across the ice), clarity, however you want to phrase it. And I do think that both Savoie and Goebel, probably Savoie more than Goebel, have room for improvement in this area as well as in things like posture and extension where Savoie has already improved more than Goebel has.

[lilwish]

Hasn't Ryan Bradley been injured for the past two Nationals? Isn't this part of the problem for him? I enjoy him so much and it has been frustrating to watch him the last two years. Also, what is the news on Braden Overett? I very much enjoy him and hope he can make it to Nationals but that is a tough field!

[ChicaTica]

[quote:28e39aa58c="lilwish"]Hasn't Ryan Bradley been injured for the past two Nationals? Isn't this part of the problem for him? [/quote:28e39aa58c]

That along with growing has been a big problem for him. I last heard that he was struggling with a hip/hip flexor type injury. I hope he heals up and hangs in there...I see him as being a great one in the future.

--ChicaTica

[lilwish]

I am so happy to have found you online again Aaron W. I have always valued your opinion at FSW and found you fair and correct in your information and well informed. The saddest thing about the new system at iskater is that people who I have learned from are scattered around the web and I have no way to find them for sure. It is good to know I have at least one person I feel I have found again that I can look to for information and undiluted opinion who knows what they are talking about and whom I can learn from.