Will there be a shake up in US Ice Dance This year?

[Scott]

Since Ice Dance is probably the USA weakest venue in skating I was thinking that this year may produce some real opportuntes for a new guard to move in and turn the tables upside down at nationals. The more I look at Lang/T I feel that they will not be moving up on the International scene. And I think that the judges willbe looking around for a team that coulod replace them. I have a feeling in my gut that some of the younger teams will be making major threats to topple them from their national gold medal perch. I see teams like Nussear/Gates and Silverstein and Forsyth bringing a new competitive edge to what I think has been a pretty mediocure venue for the past many years. I would also include Melissa Gregory and her husband as an interesting nerw element. With these teams coming on board I wonder how Beldon/Agosto will respond. Will they be able to hold off these new teams also or will they fall down the laddar as I expect Land/T will. Quite frankly I could see Beldon/A grabbing the title this year with Lang/T falling to 3rd or even 4th. This is going to be very interesting to watch. I will be very curious to see the reports coming out of Lake Placid to see how these teams are doing as they prepare for this competitive season.

[haribobo]

I think L/T and B/A will still be competing against only each other for gold. G/Petukhov should be secure with bronze if all goes well for them this year. I expect the battle for 4th to be between S/Forsyth, N/Gates, G/Obzansky, and N/Shmalo. Teams do not suddenly win gold at their first nationals...you have to work your way up the ladder. And I doubt that either of the new teams will be good enough to win gold or silver anyway...

[loveskating]

Hello Scott:

I'd be interested in your critique of L&T...I think their problem in the past is that they simply made a lot of mistakes in international competitions, but now I think they are solid, and they have been very good for 2 years. I thought their OD this year, which they debuted at Nationals, was awesome...and they also skated the heck out of it...took command, which they really need to do. Lang used to hesitate a lot, almost position herself...but she doesn't do that any more! I generally love the long edges, the way they don't pose, but really skate a fully loaded program. I love them, and would like to see them win and win internationally as well.

Otherwise, I love Tanith and her partner and I think Jamie Silverstein, once she works it out with her partner, and realizes her potential, is the one who can win gold in ice dance from the US...but it will take some time for her.

Anyway, whats wrong with my US faves?

[Josef]

I am almost intrigued by the situation in U.S. ice dancing next season. I have felt all year that Lang/Tchernyshev have been [b:14debf6c44]over[/b:14debf6c44]marked, not undermarked. Their programs this past season were extremely weak and simple choreographically, especially when compared to the top 10 international teams. I was not surprised at all to see L/T fall out of the top 10 in the world. I think the key for them to improve next season is to find a new coach. Since they are so close in ability to Navka/Kostomarov, Sasha Zhulin (Navka's husband) will obviously be pushing this team.. and they deserve a push, as they are very talented yet undermarked IMO. Last year you could tell who Zhulin favored.. just look at the material that he gave the two different teams and notice which one went up and which went down.

Belbin/Agosto are on their way up. I feel that they should have been National Champions last season. Their programs were almost on a different level than L/T, being so complex and original in their structure; particularly their free dance. It's too bad that the National judges felt that they needed to shower L/T with 6.0s at Nationals..

As for Gregory/Petukhov, they will be on the podium next season in my mind. How many dance teams medal in their first try at Nationals? Belbin/Agosto did and G/P did last season.. I am struggling to come up with any other teams.. Punsalan/Swallow way back in the late 80s maybe? Anyways, since Nationals I've heard reports that G/P have improved immensely and combined with international exposure on the GP series, I think they will definitely have an advantage over the new teams.

Silverstein/Forsyth.. Nussear/Gates.. We'll just have to wait and see with them won't we? Should be interesting, indeed. :)

[olivia]

It's definitely a "wait and see," but L&T and B&A currently have the edge in the visibility dept. nationally and internationally. Josef: Interestingly, I began to favor B&A last season over L&T also. I just love L&T together; they are beautiful. But they need tougher content. I've always noticed that L&T have had unison problems (esp. noticeable if you slo-mo dances from last season and REALLY the season before). Maybe they went with easier choreography to help in this area? I don't know. I do think they should seek out a different situation, maybe in both coaching and choreography. They definitely can be better than they currently are, IMO, and I hope to see improvement next year to rival that of Navka/Kostomarov's of this past season.

O-

[lrng to skt]

I agree with [b:2ab0c1d26c]Josef[/b:2ab0c1d26c] - to me L/T are just not competitive - Peter is/was, but Naomi, as much as she's improved doesn't impress me for amateur competition. I do think they would make wonderful show skaters, but then we'll never get to see them on TV again :evil:

Belbin/Agosto - I'm not sure - I've seen them when thought they looked terrific but not with any type of regularity.

Looking forward to seeing what can be put together with Jamie Silverstein...

Any top five for US in the near future seems unlikely...g

[Ellyn]

[quote:1f3bd94a57="Josef"]As for Gregory/Petukhov, they will be on the podium next season in my mind. How many dance teams medal in their first try at Nationals? Belbin/Agosto did and G/P did last season.. I am struggling to come up with any other teams.. Punsalan/Swallow way back in the late 80s maybe?[/quote:1f3bd94a57]

First try together as a team? Well, for many of those, including Belbin/Agosto, it would happen at novice or junior level, which is less surprising.

First try at senior Nationals, after some sort of success in juniors? Chalom/Gates 1996, Joseph/Butler 1998, Silverstein/Pekarek 2000...surely others I'm not thinking of at the moment.

[Trillian]

[quote:27f09931af="Josef"]How many dance teams medal in their first try at Nationals?[/quote:27f09931af]

People have awfully short memories considering that G&P were the second team in a row to do it. Joseph & Forsyth won the bronze in 2001 after skating together for approximately five months (and Brandon had never competed as a senior at all). Other than that, I can't think of any others recently who medaled at the senior level in their first year as a team--didn't Robinson & Breen finish fourth (and therefore win pewter) in their first year together back in 1995? I think Roca & Sur won the title in their first nationals together (1993), but I also believe they'd skated together for some time previously as professionals. Punsalen & Swallow didn't medal in their first national appearance together--they were sixth in 1990.

Personally I think it's awfully optimistic, even if you don't like L&T's skating, to think they're going to finish anywhere lower than second next season. And that would entirely depend on how the international season went beforehand; Belbin & Agosto would have to outdo them or come very close on the Grand Prix to make it a possibility. Personally, I don't see it happening. IMO L&T are the stronger team right now anyway in terms of speed, ice coverage, etc. Factor in the possibility of a new coach and choreographer (which I understand is a very good possibility), and they should certainly have the difficulty to remain ahead of B&A. Give B&A time to develop--they're still extremely young by dance standards.

Beyond the top two, I'd say Gregory & Petukhov are likely to hang onto the third spot next year, but I wouldn't speculate past that. Between Silverstein & Forsyth and Nussear & Gates, I suspect S&F will eventually be the stronger team, but N&G have been together substantially longer at this point (since late last year) and may have the edge because of that at first. I do think it's highly likely that at least one of those teams, if not both, will beat Navarro & Shmalo and Goodwin & Obzansky at nationals, though. I'm also curious to know if Galler-Rabinowitz & Mitchell are moving up (would be the smart thing to do IMO), and if so, how they'll match up against G&O. I'd give the edge to G&O, but that's just a hunch.

[NAdancefan]

I agree with many of the things that have been said about Lang & Tchernyshev. As much as I enjoy watching this team skate, I feel that they'd be far more suited to the pro ranks - they'd definitely add a lot to a show like SOI. IMHO, they don't have the technical content or the competitive nerves to move from being a perennial top-ten team to being podium contenders. Their programs this past season were sorely lacking in technical difficulty, and the fact that every judge but one placed Belbin & Agosto ahead of them in the technical mark at U.S. Nationals sends a message that they are definitely not unbeatable in their own country. Also, they have a disconcerting tendency to look awesome in practice, but not be able to deliver clean performances when it counts. This, combined with the fact that Peter isn't getting any younger and Naomi, while [i:7c9809dcd2]much[/i:7c9809dcd2] improved, still isn't his equal in terms of technique, leads me to believe they will soon be passed. I doubt it will happen next season - with Worlds in Washington, the USFSA is going to be throwing a lot of weight behind their most established champs to increase both ticket sales and medal chances (or, in terms of L&T, top-five chances). However, Belbin & Agosto have youth on their side, not to mention solid technique, good coaching, versatility (a huge plus for the ODs) and the fact that the international judges really seem to like them. I think they have a strong chance of moving into the top ten at 2003 Worlds, or if not, definitely by 2004 - quite remarkable for such a (comparatively) young team.

Beneath the top two teams, things are really starting to get interesting. I hope both Silverstein & Forsyth and Nussear & Gates decide to skate at Lake Placid, since I'd love to hear early reports of how they're looking, gelling together, what their programs are like, etc. While it's extremely unlikely either team will be contending for the championship, it's quite possible they could be contending for the bronze - it hasn't been all that rare in recent years for brand-new teams to make the podium. As Trillian pointed out, it happened both in 2001 and 2002, and I wouldn't be all that surprised if it happened again, especially considering that it's quite possible that both G&P and B&A will be ineligible for the 2006 Olympic team and I'm sure the USFSA would like to start promoting an all-American team (like S&F) just in case. However, right now I'd say G&P will probably keep their place on the podium, and S&F and N&G will be fighting it out with Goodwin & Obzansky and Navarro & Shmalo for the 4-7 range.

All in all, things will definitely be interesting on the U.S. dance scene, and I'm definitely looking forward to seeing how things play out.

[Eyesk8r]

I'd like to know where Nick Traxler fits into this picture. How is his partner search coming along? Any word?!

Nick's #1 Fan

[Scott]

I wonder what effect the coaching situation is going to have on Bldon/Agusto and Silverstein/Forsyth. Aren't these two teams now going to train with the same coach? This could prove interesting. Lang/T were also at one point training in Detroit and left. I wonder if having two potential stars may be too much pressure for one rink. How do you set your two prized students to compete against each other? I wonder how Beldon/Agusto will react to this deelopment.

[Josef]

Actually, Scott, Igor Shpilband would probably do fine with this.. in case you don't remember, at one point he (along with Liz Coates) was coaching three of the top four dance teams in the country (or was it four of the top five? I know Webster/Kravette were the only team *not* coached by them in the top group).

I'm sure that Igor will be able to handle both B/A and S/F well, although he would probably give B/A better material because he is more used to their skating *together* and won't be training a skater who had left him for Zhulin just a year earlier.

[quark]

[quote:a4cac02999="Josef"]Actually, Scott, Igor Shpilband would probably do fine with this.. in case you don't remember, at one point he (along with Liz Coates) was coaching three of the top four dance teams in the country (or was it four of the top five? I know Webster/Kravette were the only team *not* coached by them in the top group).[/quote:a4cac02999]

In 1998 it was 5 of the top 5.

[Trillian]

[quote:8435062105="Josef"]Actually, Scott, Igor Shpilband would probably do fine with this.. in case you don't remember, at one point he (along with Liz Coates) was coaching three of the top four dance teams in the country (or was it four of the top five?[/quote:8435062105]

Shpilband had the top five senior teams in the country in 1998--Punsalen & Swallow, Joseph & Butler, Lang & Tchernyshev, Chalom & Gates, and Robinson & Breen (plus the junior silver medalists, Silverstein & Pekarek). However, within the next year, one of those teams turned pro, two split, and one left him for another coach. By the time of the 1999 nationals, L&T were the only one left (along with S&P).

I don't think the question is whether Shpilband can handle having two young teams with potential. There isn't any issue with them being in close competition right away since B&A are already pretty established. Anyway, I've heard Shpilband's attitude is that he'll try to give his teams equally strong programs and how they skate those programs is their own responsibility. More likely, it's going to come down to the skaters (usually, in cases like this, the girls) and whether they can handle any real or perceived rivalry.

[Shae & Vic Forever]

L/T have defintately been overmarked. I'm even surprised they had 10th place at worlds and Olys this year. Yes I am a D/L fan but I truly strongly feel they were better than L/T this year.

[hippiechick]

Oh well, speculate all you want guys. Just cause Igor had all of those teams at once doesn't mean there weren't problems! Why do you think L&T were the only ones left after that season? This is not a nice, 'let's all be friends' sport; it's highly competitive and cutthroat! Mark my words, there WILL be problems with S&F and B&A both being coached by Igor. And I'm truly surprised that the grapevine hasn't gotten the latest on L&T. This grapevine is slipping!!! :wink:

[Trillian]

[quote:cf2e117a02="hippiechick"]Oh well, speculate all you want guys. Just cause Igor had all of those teams at once doesn't mean there weren't problems! Why do you think L&T were the only ones left after that season?[/quote:cf2e117a02]

Bingo. However, all those teams did coexist for a couple of years. While I wouldn't necessarily consider it likely that B&A and S&F will be sharing a coach three or four years from now (if both teams are even still together), I think they can make it through one season in that situation. Probably mostly because they won't be directly competitive.

[quote:cf2e117a02]And I'm truly surprised that the grapevine hasn't gotten the latest on L&T.[/quote:cf2e117a02]

Ditto, but I'm not at liberty to post what I know or how I know it, so no one's getting anything out of me. :wink:

[Scott]

Well, Trillian, I think that the cat is out of the hat concerning L/T. But isn't it neat that secrets can stillbe kept until the appropriate time? :D

I also tend to agree that there are going to be competitive juices flowing in Detroit when these two teams take the ice. While this coach has had several teams in the past I also find it interesting that all but B/A left him or quit. I do however, wish him the best with these two young teams.

[Mayra]

What new coach and choreographer for L&T?! Who? What? When? Where? Won't ask why, as thats pretty obvious. Someone spill! :wink:

[NAdancefan]

Oh brother! What's with all the hint hint stuff about L&T? It's been widely speculated elsewhere that they're leaving Zhulin and going to train with Tarasova, who is moving her entire stable to Hackensack, NJ. As for "confirming" this news, no one would be able to "confirm" it unless they're willing to reveal inside sources (definitely don't look at me for this! ;)), so people are just going to have to wait a bit, I think.

[Trillian]

[quote:24ad3fa598="NAdancefan"]It's been widely speculated elsewhere that they're leaving Zhulin and going to train with Tarasova, who is moving her entire stable to Hackensack, NJ.[/quote:24ad3fa598]

Since when is Tarasova going to Hackensack? Last I heard, she was settled in Simsbury for the time being, and spending some time in Cromwell again as well.

[Scott]

Trillian, I also have heard that Tarasova is leaving Connecticut. She was at Newington and is apparently moving down toward the Big Apple! I suppose if this is true that it will mean the end of the Newington training facility. Won't be anybody left there. I have also heard rumours that Sylvia Fontana is moving to New Jersey. With her leaving Simsbury it leaves Orscher/Lucash as the only nationally ranked or internationally ranked skaters training in Central Connecticut. Quite a change from years past.

[NAdancefan]

[quote:aceb950610="Trillian"]Since when is Tarasova going to Hackensack? Last I heard, she was settled in Simsbury for the time being, and spending some time in Cromwell again as well.[/quote:aceb950610]

There was an "official" report somewhere that Tarasova's contract with the CT rinks was up, and that she'd be relocating. The Hackensack thing is still "unconfirmed", publicly, but if you put together the official report of relocation with the many people who have unofficially posted about her future move to Hackensack, well... Take that as you will. ;)

[Trillian]

[quote:ba1fd37d36="Scott"]With her leaving Simsbury it leaves Orscher/Lucash as the only nationally ranked or internationally ranked skaters training in Central Connecticut.[/quote:ba1fd37d36]

Well, Appel & Harris are there too, unless Bob Young is moving and they're going with him. I expect Naumov's new pairs team could be a nationally-ranked couple at this time next year as well. But still, it certainly wouldn't be as crowded as it once was. As I said, I hadn't heard anything about Tarasova leaving Connecticut, but it's entirely possible.

[IdmaIjan]

I haven't heard anyone mention Justin Pekarak and his new partner lately. Are they considered to be in the mix of teams that could shake things up at Nationals? Are they still skating together or not? Does any one know?

[Scott]

Trillian wrote:
[color=green:23c4e77263][i]"Well, Appel & Harris are there too, unless Bob Young is moving and they're going with him. I expect Naumov's new pairs team could be a nationally-ranked couple at this time next year as well. But still, it certainly wouldn't be as crowded as it once was. As I said, I hadn't heard anything about Tarasova leaving Connecticut, but it's entirely possible."[/color:23c4e77263]

I called down to Connecticut last night and talked to a few people about Newington. Appell and Harris are following Bob Young down to the New London area. Not to do so would leave them coachless as there is no coaching staff left at Newington. Their only option would be to consider a move back to Simsbury which given the politics of the matter seems unlikely.

[IgglesII]

[quote:3bbb3f1eec="Scott"]
Their only option would be to consider a move back to Simsbury which given the politics of the matter seems unlikely.[/quote:3bbb3f1eec]

That has nothing to do with politics. That has everything to do with the owners of Simsbury telling their coach "We don't want you here" - which is their right. You tend to do that to people who've wronged you in the past.

If Tarasova's going to Hackensack, that would certainly be running contrary to the info I was getting last season that said that building was cutting out more and more FS ice time in favor of hockey. Did they suddenly have a change of heart on that issue?

I would also assume that if she's going to Hackensack that Moskvina and Zhulin are leaving. If they're not - that scene is going to be really, really ugly by the end of Grand Prix season. I can't imagine Moskvina, Zhulin and Tarasova coexisting under the same roof...no more than I could picture Tarasova & Zmievskaya coexisting in Simsbury.

Tarasova should go to North Branford, CT. 20 miles or less to the commuter train to NY, two sheets of ice, and NO other Russian/Soviet coaches to contend with. Not to mention rink owners who aren't digging through their couch cushions for loose change to pay the rinks bills (Newington, does that sound familiar?).

[JS]

I haven't heard anyone mention Justin Pekarak and his new partner lately. Are they considered to be in the mix of teams that could shake things up at Nationals? Are they still skating together or not? Does any one know?

Justin Pekarek was last seen at Laurel, MD rink training with Genrikh Sretenski and Liz Coats.
I don't think he and his partner with shake things up at Nationals any time soon though. She is nobody famous, still has to pass some test to even start competing. Which is strange since someone of Pekarek's level shouldn't have problems finding a suitable partner.

[Trillian]

[quote:882e509c14="JS"]She is nobody famous, still has to pass some test to even start competing. Which is strange since someone of Pekarek's level shouldn't have problems finding a suitable partner.[/quote:882e509c14]

Ah, but apparently she's his girlfriend; therefore, they wanted to skate together.

I'm not going to hold my breath for these two. If they show and up and are competitive, great. But I don't know anything about her skating except that she (so far) isn't particularly accomplished in competition. And from what I hear, she was also learning dance pretty much from scratch. In some cases a team has been successful almost immediately under these circumstances, and they definitely have a great technical coach in Liz Coates. But I prefer to take a wait and see approach, rather than assume a team will be strong just because ONE partner has a notable history.

[hippiechick]

TT is not going to Hackensak, people!

[ChicaTica]

[quote:b9c698fcbc="Trillian"][quote:b9c698fcbc="JS"]She is nobody famous, still has to pass some test to even start competing. Which is strange since someone of Pekarek's level shouldn't have problems finding a suitable partner.[/quote:b9c698fcbc]

Ah, but apparently she's his girlfriend; therefore, they wanted to skate together.

I'm not going to hold my breath for these two. If they show and up and are competitive, great. But I don't know anything about her skating except that she (so far) isn't particularly accomplished in competition. And from what I hear, she was also learning dance pretty much from scratch. In some cases a team has been successful almost immediately under these circumstances, and they definitely have a great technical coach in Liz Coates. But I prefer to take a wait and see approach, rather than assume a team will be strong just because ONE partner has a notable history.[/quote:b9c698fcbc]

Never say never! I personally watched Galit take (and fail some on the first try) her dance tests from the beginning and now look at where she is. At the time, her launching a dance career seemed like an afterthought or a desperate attempt to get to U.S. Nationals. And IIRC, Galit was dating Max, her first dance partner, when they started skating together. I tell you, 10 years ago [b:b9c698fcbc]NO ONE[/b:b9c698fcbc] would have guessed that she would have acheived this level of sucess. I guess we will have to take the wait and see approach.

:D ChicaTica :D

[ESK]

I'm just so happy that we have all these teams to talk about. Remember a couple of years ago when there was only 8 senoir teams at Nationals. It's nice to be able to look forward to a season with so many developing teams. Let's just hope that the majority of them stay together.

[Trillian]

[quote:917d2503b8="ESK"]I'm just so happy that we have all these teams to talk about. Remember a couple of years ago when there was only 8 senoir teams at Nationals.[/quote:917d2503b8]

There were only eight in the last post-Olympic year, actually, so we're lucky we don't have to face that again. I saw that event in its entirety, and the bottom four teams probably wouldn't have made the top half at the junior level.

I've also heard more on Tarasova lately. While it does sound like her leaving CT is a distinct possibility, it doesn't sound like she'll end up in Hackensack.

[terisalyn]

[quote:584f7a995c]I've also heard more on Tarasova lately. While it does sound like her leaving CT is a distinct possibility, it doesn't sound like she'll end up in Hackensack.[/quote:584f7a995c]

I'm not so concerned about where she is as who's with her...any news on that?