Download Michelle's mystery SP --all the way from Hong Kong

[Hannahclear]

http://pub1.ezboard.com/fmichellekwanforummkfanchat.showMessage?topicID=16 680.topic

It's an amazing program, and you can totally tell that Marosov did the footwork. Really one of her best.

[Oreo]

This is just a stunning program. and it ought to earn another line of sixes at Nationals. I had always loved Oksana's version of this music, but Michelle has taken it to such a mature level and with such presence. Who cares about jumps, Michelle has just set the bar once again. Plus she looked gorgeous!

Thank you, thank you, thank you for the link, Hannahclear. You just made my evening.

Oreo

[Hannahclear]

Did you notice how solid her jumps are? Plus they looked higher and stronger than last year. A very good sign.

don't thank me, thank MKF, they are truly dedicated to getting this kind of thing together.

[amethyst]

I love the footwork, the attitude, the "fire" with which she skated. This SP really lives up to the post-SA hype! Should make Nationals verrryyyy interesting if everyone skates clean programs! *knock on wood* :)

[KBW]

Well, thanks for providing the link, I think I'll go mad if I start visiting another skating board :) :oops: so I would not have known that the download was available.

By the way - downloaders who might not already know - make sure you right click the link and choose "save as" instead of streaming the video directly from it's location (left clicking (if you're right handed) - it could cause bandwidth problems for the webmasters. [I know the other thread specifies this, but I just witnessed a huge fight over this somewhere that ended in the closing of a highly-populated forum/website and want to really stress it]

[adrianchew]

The interpretation of the music is somewhat lacking? Otherwise, it looks like a good tech program.

[Yazmeen]

As someone who has studied middle eastern/oriental dance for several years, the interpretation was most certainly NOT lacking, and I was glad to NOT see cabaret style mideastern dance in this program. This is stunning. Utter perfection, and notice the firm OUTSIDE edge on the lutz. And the foot work was incredible. Ms. Kwan has definitely NOT left the building!!!!!

Now I understand why Janet Swan Hill described this as "menacingly sexy."


Nationals is going to be interesting, indeed.

[bunghodog]

wow!!! I loved her spiral and the edges, skating is so exciting this year.

[Hannahclear]

I thought that her intrepretation had alot of fire and passion, definitely not lacking......thanks for the insight into middle eastern dance, yazmeen. This is really one of her best...

[TAF2984]

Best short this season. Her footwork was sensational brillant deep edges and the most directional changes and just flows so well also by far the best this season as well. It's different and its good.

[Dustin]

Originally posted by Yazmeen
Utter perfection, and notice the firm OUTSIDE edge on the lutz.

There was a switch over before the toe went in - check again.

I think the footwork was good, things were placed well and overall the program was good. However, in some sections the choreograhy/footwork (not the straightline sequence) did not seem to be with the speed/complexity of the music (mainly between the 2 axel and 3lutz), sometimes it was right on.

[Badams]

i think that michelle's sp is by far the best of the season. it's unbeatable skated clean! congrats michelle on another masterpiece!!!!!

[2boysmom]

Loved it. Could someone tell me what competition that was from? I still don't get why they didn't show the short program at Skate America.

[thpme]

This clip is from the Skate America SP.
However, my friend in Taiwan captured this for all the Michelle Kwan fans to see it. ;)
The commentary was pretty lousy from Star Sports in Asia. :roll:

[TRAxel]

BOOOOO

It can no longer be downloaded :(

Can anyone help me out here?? I want to see it so bad!

waaaaaaaaaa waaaaaaaaaaaa!!! :cry: :cry:

[Spinner]

Wow! Just....WOW! Michelle yet again proves that you don't need an overuse of in-betweens to muddy up a simply beautiful program. Many skaters (and choreographers) sometimes put too much between the elements. It's hard to find the right balance and MK has done it again. Her quiet beauty never ceases to amaze me. Nothing overstated, serene elegance, subtlety at its best--BRAVO!

[Hannahclear]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Dustin
[B]There was a switch over before the toe went in - check again.

I checked my tape and even paused it on the spot. She ventures onto a flat, but no flutz.

[michelle K]

Originally posted by thpme
The commentary was pretty lousy from Star Sports in Asia. :roll:

I get Star Sports with English commentary. The guy is hillarious. He alawys calls a spiral a spead eagle and ladies have been landing triple axels for quite a while now. Most of the ladies double axels are triple axel according to him. ^^ He confuses me with a lot of misnomers.

He is not annoying but I sometimes wish he would get the elments right. His skating element and jump recognitions are really poor for a commentator.

Anyway, I love Star Sports. Their Grand Prix coverage has been really nice.

[jss]

Well before watching this I thought Sasha had the best short program by far. After watching this, however, I think it is a toss up between her and Michelle. It will be very interesting to see who wins the short program if both skate clean. It might come down to skate order and who gets the crowd more excited. Can't wait to see this at Nationals when it has been polished.

[RoseAugust]

I love this program. I was a afraid that it wouldn't live up to the hype, but it totally drew me in and did not disappoint. I was also a little afraid that the footwork would look like a clone of Yagudin/Sasha/Arakaya/etc, and I was relieved that it did not. Yay! I do wish the camera hadn't focused on her upper half during some of the parts where she was obviously doing some interesting stuff with her skates. Both Michelle and Sasha have great programs . . . now, I can't wait to see Sarah's!

[Arsenette]

Originally posted by TRAxel
BOOOOO

It can no longer be downloaded :(

Can anyone help me out here?? I want to see it so bad!

waaaaaaaaaa waaaaaaaaaaaa!!! :cry: :cry:

It seems fine now.. I just downloaded it..

WOW!!!!! GOD I love this program! I love that she never stops!!! You know when they all stop to pronounce that they are doing a footwork sequence? She just floats through it and back and forth.. COOL!!! Not bad for helping the USFSA out in coming in at the last second.. Now I REALLY can't wait until the GPF!!!

THANKS GUYS AND GALS!!! :twisted: :mrgreen:

[TAF2984]

Jss said:
"Well before watching this I thought Sasha had the best short program by far. After watching this, however, I think it is a toss up between her and Michelle. It will be very interesting to see who wins the short program if both skate clean. It might come down to skate order and who gets the crowd more excited. Can't wait to see this at Nationals when it has been polished"


well jss if you think their programs are around the same then MK will win the short because she's the better skater and more polished. IF Irina beating her in the short at COR and Sasha having some marks as low as 5.5 for presentation and half her marks for tech 5.5 or lower, didn't tell you something about not just having a good short program but also being very polished and having all the quality in your skating then I don't think anything will.

[lilwish]

I adore Michelle and have not, until this season been enamored of Sasha. Still, before seeing this short of Michelle's I was convinced that Sasha had the short program of the season locked up to win. I had forgotten just how great Michelle can be when fired up! I am excited to see them both skate well and see who wins. I would most likely give the win to Michelle in that case! She just has it all! Sasha is getting close but on a good day for both, I give this one to Michelle.

[yogurtslinger]

Wow, I'm impressed. One complaint of Michelle I've always had has been that she lacked speed/energy. This program really gives her that much needed "shot in the arm".

I think it's so appropriate for her right now... while some might compare this to Salome, I think this program is really a lot different.. there was less Michelle "modern dance emoting" type of thing, and not the huge emphasis on the "Michelle spiral" coming in on the poignant note of the music etc. Overall, I have to say that a lot of it probably has to do with the music selection- it's passionate, it's heated, and yet there isn't this typical arc- (with the high note coming in on Michelle's inside edge spiral).. instead the music drives all the way to the end.

Her spins and her speed look pretty good as well. On the other hand, this program isn't as much of a departure as that rock and roll thing she attempted a while back- she's wearing a simple dress, it's a "simple" program.. yet I think she has succeeded in "breaking the mold" in a way. There are a lot of subtly different things in this program... having to do with underemphasizing elements which, imo, tended to have been overemphasized in the past... it succeeds in making her look sleeker and faster as a result. Which is I guess what she wanted.

Good job. It's also probably the sexiest Michelle program.. her other musical choices have tended to be more languorous (sp?). And I'm saying all this as a Sasha fan and as a Oksana fan ;).. good choice of music!

[yogurtslinger]

Oh, I also wanted to add that I was curious as to what sort of program she would come up with at this point of her life.. like, would she be tempted to try to give herself a total makeover in light of what happened at the Olympics? But no, it seemed like she has a pretty healthy mindset on this- the program was well put together, simple, striking, somewhat new and challenging... but she wasn't trying hard to do something totally different and unfeasible. It was kind of an understated program.. and it seemed a lot of fun. So, it seems like she's still having fun with skating.. and just seeing where it takes her.

[jss]

well jss if you think their programs are around the same then MK will win the short because she's the better skater and more polished. IF Irina beating her in the short at COR and Sasha having some marks as low as 5.5 for presentation and half her marks for tech 5.5 or lower, didn't tell you something about not just having a good short program but also being very polished and having all the quality in your skating then I don't think anything will.

Well my personal opinion, and I know others share it, is that Irinia shouldn't have won that short program. Her new short program, IMHO, is AWFUL. The coreagraphy looks juniorish. I watch the tape and wonder why she won. It couldn't hurt that she is the world champion or that it was held in Russia. I still think that it will be a close call if Michelle and Sasha skate clean, but of course I always want Michelle to come out on top.

[JDC1]

I think it's absolutely brilliant and from the camera angle her lutz looked clean to me and if not "pure" better than last year. I think she looked awesome and totally on. I much prefer her footwork to Sasha's, too much starting and too much "tada" both are difficult but I prefer the effortlessness that Michelle is able to attain in hers. She interprets the music absolutely beautifully and she is so sexy without tht Sandra Bezic sex kitten attitude that many skaters have adapted as they get older and want to portray more complex elements of who they are. I could gush for hours and hours I am so happy and I believe if Sasha and Michelle are both clean at Nationals we will all be so lucky!!!!

[spiralsrfun]

WOW 8O

I just saw it this morning and I have to say that this SP lived up to all it's post SA hype...it's a winner.

Can you believe that was only a 2-3 weeks old at SA?!?!

Can you imagine what it must look like now?!?!?

Her speed was exciting, her jumps were big and powerful, her lutz combo was a thing of beauty, her spiral sequence was so fast and powerful, her spins were excellent and her footwork was absolutely AMAZING! 8O

Her sexy, mature and seductive approach to the choreography is not only refreshing and different, but it really sets her apart from the others we've seen this season IMO...yes she's a woman now and it shows, and she's not afraid to show it.

Kudos to her and her team on this short...it's just spellbinding! :lol:


Nationals is going to be quite the event! ;)

[adrianchew]

Originally posted by spiralsrfun

her spins were excellent

They are merely good - well centered but certainly lacking the speed and difficulty that some of the other top ladies achieve.

The layback position is certainly easier than a classic layback (Angela) or layback with free leg variations (high + low that Sasha does) or a catch foot layback that Irina does.

The combination camel/sit/backsit/crossfoot is very very basic in positions... I've seen novices/juniors with more interesting combinations and variations in position.

The flying camel is not great... there is a reason definitely that she has relied on the deathdrop/backsit for years as her flying spin.

[Lee]

Originally posted by adrianchew
The flying camel is not great... there is a reason definitely that she has relied on the deathdrop/backsit for years as her flying spin. Which is not a bad thing, since the deathdrop/backsit is definitely more difficult than a flying camel.

[Hannahclear]

I disagree about the spins in a couple of ways, but will concede that they are merely good.

Michelle is never going to be the kind of spinner that Sasha is, she's a good spinner, but not a great spinner. To me, she has improved on speed from last year, so this is progress. I'd rather see her skate classic easier positions with wonderful carriage and centering than slow herself down by trying spins that are beyond her. Her spins are perfectly centered and have wonderful posture, that is their area of excellence, not speed or positions which are average. I did think her flying camel was lovely, what was wrong with it? As for novice and juniors doing better with spins, I've never seen a novice with that kind of posture and centering, though I have seen those who were much more flexible.

[JDC1]

Her spins looked "very fast" compared to last year but ofcourse if you compare them to Irina or other fast spinners Michelle's spins are not as fast but they are secure and do not travel. I never worry that Michelle will fall out of her spins or travel around the ice.

[travellingfan]

did they ever broadcast this on American television? i can't believe they did not show the short program's from skate america but i do not remember. :?:

[adrianchew]

Bear in mind that you're looking at it via Real Player - when someone posted a Real Player of Sasha's SP performance from Skate Canada, it made her look like she was skating at hyperspeed! 8O

Telling speed on TV is bad, speed on Real Player videos is even harder. If she looks fast, its likely slower in real life.

[spiralsrfun]

Yes, I agree Adrain...RealPlayer makes things look faster.

I do think Michelle's spins are excellent Adrain. But if you prefer I reserve that adjective for others, I will concede to very, very good. ;) ;)

As a skater myself, I know how hard it is to do even a basic spin, let alone a fast and very well centered one.

You pointed-out what you feel are her weaknesses in her spins, well here are her strengths:

Michelle isn't the "best" spinner in the World today...true...but she's one of the best. Look at her straight back position in that combo spin....that's excellent. Her transition form position to position in all her combo spins is effortless and seemless...that's excellent. Her speed has increased in all her spins so far this season...that's excellent. Her stretched-out position in her flying camel is superier to most in the world, true it's not as "fast" as some...but it's a winner. Her layback isn't a classic position, but her "back" position, which is "key" in a lay"back" spin is completely arched, and the speed is incredible and the centering is again, excellent. Her spins more than meet the requirements for the SP, and exceed them.

Yes, Irina, Sarah, Sasha, Angela and some others can achieve harder positions, or faster speed, etc. that, we know. ;) Michelle, in turn, is stronger than these ladies in some other areas, like centering and transition flow for example.

[Spinner]

Not sure if I'd agree with a 'merely good' assessment of her spins. IMO, the only thing lacking in her spins overall is speed of rotation. Barring that, she's top of the line. Her layback looked much-improved (lower back in the arch), her sitspin has always been the best in the world (her back position is textbook perfect), her camels have always had nice stretch, always transitioning well from one position to the other, and her centering is almost unrivaled (a feat not always achieved by the speed-spinners). I've never been a fan of the catch-foot layback--it just looks awkward. I guess the same applies to some of the 'gimmicky' spins we see today. While I like a few of them, most--again--look awkward. Savoie's sideways-stretched half sitspin, the donut-on-a-stick, and most hyper-stretched spins for example just aren't my cup of tea. I suspect some judges feel the same way. ;)

And fercryingoutloud, can Irina PLEEEZE get a new combination spin? It's been that same one for years. I appreciate she can do the Biellmann on both feet, but shake it up a bit. Put them in different places in the program.

Spinner (who's now really looking forward to a great showdown at US nationals--our glut of talented ladies is sickening, ain't it? ;) :D)

[Louis]

The short program has become amazingly important now that it will be a three (or maybe four!) way race to gold at Worlds. Remember, third in the short program is NOT good enough if the person who wins the short program also has won her qualification round. I think Kwan and Cohen have both realized this. Oddly enough, they could each be the other's biggest help in effectively eliminating Slutskaya, Onda, etc. before the free skate. But only one can be the helper and one can be the helped....

[spiralsrfun]

Good point Louis.

Look how the qualifying groups will break down:

In one Qualifying group we'll have:
-Slutskaya
-Suguri
-Onda
-Volchkova

And in the other will be:
-Kwan
-Cohen
-Liashenko


...add to that, if Sarah goes to Worlds...which group will she be in? Both groups are already intense and the pressure is really on to WIN your group...and IMO for the first time in several seasons, the groups are well-balanced (for now at least).

This will and exciting Worlds for sure.

[jss]

Surely if Sarah goes to Worlds she will be in the group with Slutskaya as it hardly seems fair for all three skaters from one country to be in one qualifying group.

[Luenatic]

Originally posted by Louis
Oddly enough, they could each be the other's biggest help in effectively eliminating Slutskaya, Onda, etc. before the free skate. But only one can be the helper and one can be the helped....

How about this:

Last year Worlds' standing:
1. Slutskaya
2. Kwan
3. Suguri
4. Cohen
5. Onda

That means, Slutskaya, Suguri and Onda are on the same QR next year Worlds. Kwan and Cohen will be on the other.

Let say, Kwan is 1st and Cohen is 2nd on their QR.
And Slutskaya, Onda are 1st and 2nd respectively on their QR.

So now with 20% of the total,
Kwan 0.2
Cohen 0.4

Slutskaya 0.2
Onda 0.4

Let say after the SP with 30% of the total, this is the outcome:
1. Cohen 0.3
2. Kwan 0.6
3. Slutskaya 0.9

Sub total after QR and SP:

1. Cohen 0.4+0.3 0.7
2. Kwan 0.2+0.6 = 0.8
3. Slutskaya 0.2 + 0.9 = 1.1

Any one of them who won the LP will have 0.5 (50% of the total) and be the overall winner.


Worlds is going to be exciting.

[Aaron W]

Originally posted by jss
Surely if Sarah goes to Worlds she will be in the group with Slutskaya as it hardly seems fair for all three skaters from one country to be in one qualifying group.

It doesn't matter at all if 3 skaters from the same country are in the same qualifying group. It happened in Vancouver where Kwan, Hughes, and Nikodinov were all in the same qualifying group (they finished in that order by the way).

We'll have to wait to see who else will be going to Worlds that wasn't there last season so that we can figure everything out alphabetically to determine who will be in which qualifying group. I'd sure like it though if Hughes was not in the same group as Kwan and Cohen.

[cello]

Regarding a three way race...maybe a three way between Kwan, Cohen and Slute would benefit Slute the most. Some of Michelle and Sasha's positives overlap and they could feasibly 'take' ordinals from each other. Judges who prefer Irina's strengths may end up being the default majority in a three-way race. Now if Volchkova is a contender, that would get messy indeed.

[roogu]

I think a lot of the positive response to Sasha and Michelle's new shorts have a lot to do with a "look at me, I'm so pretty" short programs we've been seing from the ladies a lot the last season or two. Generally, it's been a lot of one piece, slow music and now , we're seeing a lot of attack, aggressiveness ... very in your face, do or die type programs which I think is awesome.

Taking a look at last year:
Slute, Cohen, Suguri, Butyrskaya, Hughes, Volchkova, Malinina, Kwan (for half the season), Maniachenko, Nikodinov ALL had the "look at me, I'm so pretty and romantic" programs.

So the change is just refreshing.

BUt I also do agree that the fire in Kwan this year is awesome .... she just seems very light .... very different from the last year or so.

[duane]

this is a great SP. michelle skates effortlessly, the jumps are solid, the footwork sequence is awesome, the spins are centered, she seems to be skating with great speed, and she looks absolutely beautiful. this is Skate America, was a fairly new SP, and she skates as if it's the end of the season. i love sasha's SP, but if both she and michelle skate cleanly at Nationals, michelle will definitely be in 1st place. i think she will get a much more spirited reaction from the crowd, as well as a more positive response from the National judges. Worlds may be a different story. i think skating order will play more of a role at Worlds.

regarding COR, i think that if michelle had skated this program at COR, irina still would have "randomly" been in first, and probably with the same 4/3 split that she received over sasha. :(

[skaterina]

Originally posted by Luenatic
How about this:

Last year Worlds' standing:
1. Slutskaya
2. Kwan
3. Suguri
4. Cohen
5. Onda

That means, Slutskaya, Suguri and Onda are on the same QR next year Worlds. Kwan and Cohen will be on the other.

Let say, Kwan is 1st and Cohen is 2nd on their QR.
And Slutskaya, Onda are 1st and 2nd respectively on their QR.

So now with 20% of the total,
Kwan 0.2
Cohen 0.4

Slutskaya 0.2
Onda 0.4

I believe that the ISU counts the 20% as .4, so it would be:

Kwan .4
Cohan .8

Slutskaya .4
Onda .8

Let say after the SP with 30% of the total, this is the outcome:
1. Cohen 0.3
2. Kwan 0.6
3. Slutskaya 0.9

The short program would be as follows:

1. Cohen .6
2. Kwan 1.2
3. Slutskaya 1.8
Sub total after QR and SP:

1. Cohen 0.4+0.3 0.7
2. Kwan 0.2+0.6 = 0.8
3. Slutskaya 0.2 + 0.9 = 1.1

So after the short it would be:

1. Cohen .8 + .6 = 1.4
2. Kwan .4 + 1.2 = 1.6
3. Slutskaya .4 + 1.8 = 2.2


Any one of them who won the LP will have 0.5 (50% of the total) and be the overall winner.

Worlds is going to be exciting.

The tenths may be different, but the result is still the same.

If one of the ladies wins both the QR and SP then the lady in 3rd place after the short program could only win the gold if the lady in 1st place came in 3rd or lower in the LP.

I can't wait for Worlds to get here!

[cem]

Originally posted by cello
Regarding a three way race...maybe a three way between Kwan, Cohen and Slute would benefit Slute the most. Some of Michelle and Sasha's positives overlap and they could feasibly 'take' ordinals from each other. Judges who prefer Irina's strengths may end up being the default majority in a three-way race. Now if Volchkova is a contender, that would get messy indeed.


Based on how they skate the three way race could be between any one of these skaters:
Kwan
Slutskaya
Hughes
Cohen
Onda
Volchkova
Suguri
Arakawa

The skater that wins worlds will have to be consistent thru all three phases of the competition. Skaters that have trimmed their diffcult jumps in the qualifying round is not going to work this season. I for one cannot wait.

[icyboid]

Wow, that was more than worth the wait.

That footwork sequence at the end was amazing, I can't get over it.

Was it just me, or did she seem to have a lot more positions and moves where she swiveled and twisted at her hips? Yazmeen? :)

I don't know if it was the sound balance on my computer, but the announcer seemed REALLY loud compared to the music.

[Yazmeen]

Yes, icyboid, she did, and it was more like the old traditional type of dancing you see in bellydance (a good kashlimar or gawazi tiype dance) not the cabaret style we are used to seeing. There was "economy of movement" in some of the hip and arm gestures that still sold the music but wasn't blatant, "flapping,"or overly obvious. (Old dances, like gawazi's show more subtle movements, because the women used to dance for hours and couldn't afford to waste all their energy on one dance). Michelle captured some of that very nicely. I loved it. Geez, it was nice to see something done to middle eastern style music without those tired "walk like an egyptian" arm movments over and over again.

[bunghodog]

This was a breathtaking program. it was strong and aggressive and powerful and fast. the footwork was quick and strong. The connecting moves that needed to be held were held to great effect. there was absolutely nothing ethereal about the entire program. ... When she started covering ice, she seemed to fly... but ... it wasn't the absolute speed that you noticed ..... it was the authority.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Janet Swan Hill once again slays the demons of doubt with her keen judge's eye!
this what Janet had to say.

[Mayra]

Originally posted by adrianchew
They are merely good - well centered but certainly lacking the speed and difficulty that some of the other top ladies achieve.



Hers spins IMO have always been merely good. Its when Michelle Kwan delivers those "merely good" spins with clean jumps and wonderful spirals, that the programs themselves become excellent.

As for the program, I love it! 8-)

[catija]

another way of saving clips in any format is by using streambox! sometimes its impossible to save things in ...for example: asf files. and by using this program which just requires 'copy and paste' of hte link, you'll get your file!

[Kemy]

Wasn't it nice to see someone choosing to play to a certain style and sticking to it all the way through the program? She wanted to be "Menacingly sexy" (Janet Swan Hill's words, I believe) and she kept that attitude ALL the way through. She didn't even smile like she usually does on the spiral (Well, she smirked in an "I dare you" kind of way.) It was very convincing.

I hate skaters who try to be either sad, angry, or emotional in their skating programs, and then, on some elements, are shown to be smiling like they have no care in the world. Same goes for happy programs in which the skater in frowning in concentration. Facial expressions during the program have as much to do with the presentation as those at the beginning and end of the program as well as the arm movements.

Anyways, my two cents worth.

[catija]

omg!!!!!! i just watched that clip it's her best SP to date! its like she woke up from the dead! wow!!!! her footwork amazed me...and her spins!

wha'ts her LP again? :)

[TAF2984]

I dont understand all these comments about competitions and making it seem as if there are SO many skaters that can win worlds which I doubt very much. Several skaters you can always count on to make a mistake and when Irina and MK are at their best and they more than likely will be at the end of the season they have no chance at all of beating them with any mistake in their program. They would need a picture perfect performance at their standard plus a huge tech weapon(3axel, triple triples) I dont see the hype regarding several skaters because they are still making mistakes and still not doing anything that shows a huge weapon that could beat someone like MK that includes AP, sasha, onda, VV, fumie and whoever is continullly getting all this hype.

[michele]

Originally posted by TAF2984
I dont see the hype regarding several skaters because they are still making mistakes and still not doing anything that shows a huge weapon that could beat someone like MK that includes AP, sasha, onda, VV, fumie and whoever is continullly getting all this hype.

I agree that AP, Fumie and VV (simply because she'd have to be solid in *three* rounds, which I think is beyond her) are definitely not the top contenders for gold.

Onda's getting some huge marks though, and the qualifying groups could really benefit her - especially if Slutskaya's still not in form and Sarah's not in. So it's not out of the realm of possibility but she'll need the skate of her life in the final freeskate and poor performances from the rest (ala SLC).

And it would be foolish to discount Sasha. :) But yes, she'll only win if she can have the best overall competition of her life to date. CoR was a step in the right direction, but obviously not enough yet. I think she's the hungriest of all, and it'll be interesting to see if that might carry her through.

I love it when you can start analysing for Worlds! :) But this is really going to be a race as Louis pointed out. It's definitely the most open ladies competition in a long time, on the level of the men in 97. I love suspense, so it should be great (even with the stupid sekret komputer).

[Chico]

Wow.......... I loved the program. I mentioned last spring that I thought a mature program would be great for Michelle and for once my opinion was good! It has a sexy feel without being too much, in fact I thought it was just right. Michelle was Michelle with a fresh spark and maturity. I appreciate Sasha's footwork this year, but I like Michelle's flow even better. My personal preferance is deep edges and flow and not the stop and go thing Sasha is doing. However, I do appreciate her improvement here and understand that some might like it better than Michelle's flow. Too awesome. Go Michelle!

Chico

[duane]

Originally posted by TAF2984
They would need a picture perfect performance at their standard plus a huge tech weapon(3axel, triple triples)...that includes AP, sasha, onda, VV, fumie and whoever is continullly getting all this hype.

i agree that AP, onda, VV, and fumie will need a perfect performance and a huge weapon to beat irina or michelle, but i think it's ludicrous to put sasha in this group. these skaters are not receiving the presentation marks that sasha is now receiving. actually, if one looks at the presentation marks michelle, irina, and sasha have been receiving lately in international competitions, michelle's marks have fallen (a 5.8 was once considered low for her), irina's have remained somewhat steady (there are usually more eastern bloc judges on the panels), while sasha's have greatly improved (and deservedly so). i now think that if michelle, irina, and sasha all skate cleanly--or not cleanly, but somewhat equally--who will end up ahead of the other will depend on the panel of judges...meaning, irina has the edge because eastern bloc judges usually are the majority.

[JDC1]

I have to agree with Duane here, I think Sasha is generally above Fumie, VV, Yoshie et al with ABILITY not necessarily results. I think Sasha is a wild card, if she's clean with 7 Triples then I think it will take a clean 7 triple program from either Michelle or Irina to beat her. I think Sarah might even need 7 triples with one combination to beat Sasha, remember at Nats a 7 triple Sarah was placed behind Michelle and Sasha. We won't really know until after Nats how Sarah and Michelle are skating. And Irina is a huge question mark, she has not had an impressive season but she has months to put it together. I think this year it is really open til after we see or hear about everyone at their respective Nationals.

[TAF2984]

duane of course sasha is stronger than those skaters. I put her in that group because it still would take a great performance by her to beat MK or Irina if they just make a small mistake. I say 7 triple and a triple triple and a mistake by MK or Irina with 6 triples would end up being a toss up. The fact that I was saying is that those skaters have still not given any perofmrnace that would be good enough to beat an usual performance by the top 2 or certainly not one that would beat their best.

MK getting 5.8s at SA certainly wasn't bad seeing she made mistakes in her long, skated early, and the long needs more content to it. She also got 5.8s and 5.9s for her short which is very good for a debut, and early skate.

Duane all you are doing is sepculating in your post about if they all skate cleanly.It has happened and none of that of what you said has occurred sasha had half of her tech marks in the short at COR be 5.5 or lower(even a 5.2 from a judge) and she even had some 5.5s for presentation for a "clean short." The judges even placed VV over her so they obviously were looking at some qualities that she does better as well(even though I would have given it to sasha)

I bet if they all skate cleanly the results will be very similar to the Olympics with all judges uniamously putting Kwan over sasha. sasha stealing some ordinals from Irina and Irina taking some from MK by the eastern judges in the short. Actually that has been the most decisive decision of the judges with all the oridinals all over the place at OG was Kwan over sasha and it has been at every competition they have gone to even with mistakes. Sasha doesn't have any critieria of presentation that could be looked at overall that would be placed over Kwan while with Irina she does such as her posture, character, style and Irina has criterias putting her over sasha. it's just a degree of how they want to stress the strengths between the two. With MK, it's either MK is just simply better in the criteria or they are around the same or close in it. ALL I am saying is that if Kwan and Irina skate lights out there's nothing anyone else can really do at this point definitely more so with MK and none of those skaters have come even close to giving a real performance that could challenge them.