Lang/T Competing at US Nationals?

[Scott]

On a another thread someone raised an interesting circumstance. Will Naomi and Peter compete at US Nationals or ask for a medical bye to allow them to focus on training for Worlds? If they ask for a bye will they get it? Should they get it?

I really think that this team may sit out nationals this year. They have not been on the ice to any great extent because of the shoulder injury that Naomi has ( I still wonder how it was that they were able to pull off an appearance at the Mohegan Sun Casino show in Connecticut this fall!!) and I wonder if they are going to want to go up against the energetic Belbin/Augusto. They also have had to deal with the recent split up of their coaching staff.

If they do decide that they want to compete and ask for a bye I would not be in favor of them getting it. It seems to me that if they were well enough to skate in a show at a Connecticut Casino they could have competed during the Gran Prix.

[Trillian]

Originally posted by Scott
If they ask for a bye will they get it? Should they get it?

I'd feel pretty sure the answer to the first question is yes, provided they're likely to be ready for worlds. And I'd say the answer to the second question is yes as well. L&T may be about to fall behind Belbin & Agosto this year, but there's still no evidence to suggest that the next team in line (looks to be Gregory & Petukhov at this point) is even close. Even if L&T finish out of the top ten at worlds, they'd still finish well ahead any of our lower-ranked teams. Yeah, the fact that they haven't competed all season will work against them, but the fact that they haven't lost to another U.S. team since 1998 definitely cuts them a little slack IMO.

[Artemis]

The US gets to send 2 dance teams to Worlds, right? If so, then I think they should get a bye if they have a documented medical reason. If there was only 1 Worlds berth on the line, that would be a different story, what with B&A's performances this year.

[bcskater]

i dont know alot about L&T's situation, but they are 9th in the world? not that that isnt an amazing accomplishment in itself, but i dont see it as a basis for a medical bye to WORLDS. it seems that only competitors with previous world medals or atleast top 5 finishes have been sent directly to worlds (i.e.-shae & vic) but to be sending a 9th ranked to team, having not competed all season long, seems a little risky. maybe it is best that they take the season off. (heck, nicole bobek didnt even get a medical bye granted to her for '96 worlds after being 3rd the year prior!) i could be totally wrong here but it just would seem odd to me if they had a bye to worlds having not competed on the grand prix circiut.:??

[hoptoad]

I think it's completely up to the federations to decide which teams they send to worlds, whether they honor the standings at their national championships or not, give byes, or whatever.
I can see that the USFSA might give a medical bye to L/T, since there isn't another team after B/A that has any chance of doing better than L/T.

Personally, I don't think it would be good for L/T to be sent to Worlds less prepared than they should be and probably slip a few places. If they aren't able to compete at nationals, let them get an early start on their comeback for next year. On the other hand, it would do a LOT of good to give one of the up and coming dance teams the experience and exposure of going to Worlds.

[TheIceKing]

I would think if L&T asked for a bye they would probably get it. If the dance field was as deep as the ladies, or even the men, they probably wouldn't. But they HAVE been the US Champs since 1999. Also, L&T, even injuried and not 100% will probably place better at Worlds then a trained and healthy Gregory & Petukov, who will mostly likely place 3rd at US Nationals. Another note to make is...IF L&T compete at Worlds, and place in the top 10, and B&A also place in the top 10, won't that be enough to get us 3 spots for Worlds 2004? If that is not correct, what would it take for us to get 3 spots in 2004?

[Aaron W]

Originally posted by TheIceKing
Another note to make is...IF L&T compete at Worlds, and place in the top 10, and B&A also place in the top 10, won't that be enough to get us 3 spots for Worlds 2004? If that is not correct, what would it take for us to get 3 spots in 2004?

Having two teams finish in the top 10 doesn't guarantee 3 teams at the 2004 Worlds. The magic number is 13. So if, for example, Belbin & Agosto finish 9th and Lang & Tchernyshev finish 10th, that adds up to 19 points. Now if by some miraculous miracle they finish 6th and 7th, then we'll get 3 teams (or 5th & 8th, 4th & 9th, etc). Not that I'm counting on that though, lol. :)

Hmmm, I wonder when was the last time the US got to send 3 dance teams to Worlds?

[Trillian]

Originally posted by Aaron W
Hmmm, I wonder when was the last time the US got to send 3 dance teams to Worlds?

I looked it up for you. :) 1985--Blumberg & Seibert (3rd), Roca & Adair (11th), Semanick & Gregory (12th). Theoretically a medal should have allowed for three spots the following year as well, but there was still a rule in place at that point that one of those three spots had to include the skaters who'd actually medaled--so since Blumberg & Seibert turned pro before the 1986 worlds, we lost their spot and only got to send two teams in 1986. And that was the last time a U.S. team medaled at worlds--closest we've come since was Wynne & Druar, who were 5th in 1989 and 4th in 1990 before they split.

[hoptoad]

I guess it depends how much confidence the USFSA would have in L/T in those (hypothetical) circumstances. If they are too injured to compete at Nationals, is there reason to think they will be able to compete credibly at Worlds? Have they competed at all this season?

I wish L/T well and hope they can eventually move further up the world standings. It just doesn't seem like this is their year and they have more to lose from a mediocre performance than from being out this year.

What's the magic number to send 2 teams to Worlds next year? Without L/T, we may not make that cutoff--reason enough to hope they can compete...

[Aaron W]

Originally posted by hoptoad
What's the magic number to send 2 teams to Worlds next year? Without L/T, we may not make that cutoff--reason enough to hope they can compete...

The magic number to keep two teams is 28. Considering what's happend with Belbin & Agosto this season, it's pretty likely they'll move into the top 10. If Gregory & Petukhov is the other US team, all they'd need to do is make it to the free dance which is pretty much a guarantee. It won't matter from that point on where they place because the maximum points they'll receive is 16. With 16 points, Belbin & Agosto could place 12th and the US would still keep it's two dance spots (I'd be absolutely shocked if Belbin & Agosto aren't in the top 10 though).

[legjumper]

Originally posted by Aaron W
(I'd be absolutely shocked if Belbin & Agosto aren't in the top 10 though).
I wouldn't be, but I don't predict them anywhere below 12th at the absolute lowest. The top ten is going to be a dogfight, and there are many worthy teams all looking for a spot, especially in the 8-10 range.

Edited to add: Now, if some teams *don't* show up at Worlds due to injury (e.g., B&K or L&T), then I'd definitely expect B&A to move into the bottom rungs of the top ten.

[Scott]

Originally posted by legjumper
I wouldn't be, but I don't predict them anywhere below 12th at the absolute lowest. The top ten is going to be a dogfight, and there are many worthy teams all looking for a spot, especially in the 8-10 range.

Edited to add: Now, if some teams *don't* show up at Worlds due to injury (e.g., B&K or L&T), then I'd definitely expect B&A to move into the bottom rungs of the top ten.

I fully expect that Belbin/Augusto will defeat Lang/T if L/T are able to complete this season.

[speedy]

And I fully expect L&T to release a lot of pent-up frustrations from all this and show everybody that they are still the number one team in America. I enjoy watching both teams, should be fun. ;)

[Leela]

I have heard that Naomi and Peter are back on the ice training. Has anyone seen them? Is Naomi well enough to really train hard? How does their new choreography look? I believe they went with Morosov after the split---is he giving them the attention and TLC they need?
Talk about breaking out with frustration---why is there no info about the U.S. Champion dance team :?: :cry:

[Trillian]

Originally posted by Leela
I believe they went with Morosov after the split---is he giving them the attention and TLC they need?

From what I've heard Morozov is very dedicated to these two, so I'm sure he's giving them plenty of attention and support.

I highly respect his abilities as a choreographer, and those of L&T as skaters, but after all this missed training time and the strong international showing of B&A (better than L&T have ever done on the GP), I just don't see things going their way at nationals this year. If it's an iffy decision, which it likely would be, I'd expect the judges to lean in favor of the team that's clearly in political favor internationally at this point. The fact that L&T slipped in the international standings last year isn't going to help them either, but that doesn't mean they can't work their way back up next season if they can stay healthy.

[Anjelica]

L&T have been back on the ice training and are looking awesome. Their programs are the best they have ever had. Nikolai has been giving them plenty of time and support. They are ready to kick some **. Not to belittle B&A's bronze medals at the Grand Prix, but there wasn't much competition there and I hardly think this is grounds to say they will surely win Nationals.

[Maximillian]

Originally posted by Anjelica
L&T have been back on the ice training and are looking awesome. Their programs are the best they have ever had. Nikolai has been giving them plenty of time and support. They are ready to kick some **. Not to belittle B&A's bronze medals at the Grand Prix, but there wasn't much competition there and I hardly think this is grounds to say they will surely win Nationals.

Boy Anjelica you sure seem to have the inside track on L/T, one would think that you had something invested in their future.

[Anjelica]

;)

[what?meworry?]

yes. from my experience with commentary from Angelica on 2 other boards, i would put money on her "personal commitment" to promoting the l/t team (along with "sparkle..."

so, after business and holiday travel, i've read the boards and talked to as many folk as i could reach about gossip and sectionals. regarding l/t, several sources, not related, reported that there was a good chance that they would not compete at nationals. while peter was showing up for practice, naomi was not. injury. and he was very frustrated.

the guesses from my sources 1) they will go pro 2) he will seek a new partner.

reaction to the usfsa article of their return: usfsa had a "chat" with them in that they have invested incredible finances in this team and they are expected to perform this year. (fyi, for starters only, cause there is more invested if the skater(s) have a shot at top 10, they get at least $25,000 for being in the "a" team envelope.)

i would like to say i would hope they are "happy-happy-joy-joy" team who will carry usfsa to greater success at worlds this year, but i fear they are in the twilight of their career.

without a doubt, given peter/naomi's current problems. ben/tanith should win nationals this year.

bye the way, naomi has a "shoulder problem?" i thought it was a tendon problem of some sort! anyone out there with accurate info?

[Scott]

I think that Trillian has hit the right point: B&A have proved themselves internationally this year in a way that L/T never have. This is going to propell B&A into US Nats with a strong edge and I don't see L&T overcoming it. I really think that they should consider other options because to be truthful I think that they are even going to face a very stiff challenge from Gregory/Petukov for the silver.

If it is true the L&T have not been training and are just now getting back on ice I think that this is way too late in the season to get ready for Nationals. I mean we are really talking about a month- This is even a bigger problem if they are in fact doing a new program.

[pennskater]

I agree - L/T will have a fight with B/A, and B/A might just beat them. B/A have been training and competing, and doing well. So they have the benefit of having a well 'tweaked' program and the input from judges.
Coming off an injury is always difficult, and Naomi may still not be 100%. With only four weeks, it makes it very difficult, but not impossible, to get in shape to the degree to beat B/A. (If she is indeed back on the ice)
But to repeat, it is not impossible. Look at Scott/Dulebohn in pairs last year. They practiced only a few weeks prior to nationals, and did well enought to go to the Oly's. (Of course, they are not doing so well this year, but the team they beat (K/P) are also not doing well.) Many people discounted them last year as being able to come back so strong.
So, I don't count L/T out of second (or first) and agree that sending them to Worlds is probably better than any other choices. The other teams are still very weak in comparison to other international teams.

[IdmaIjan]

I think it is pretty much in the bag that B/A will win Nationals at this point. I just hope that L/T don't compete at Nationals. I'd rather have B/A win without L/T losing their title.

[what?meworry?]

i agree, l/t, if they choose to compete at nationals, will not retain their title. b/a will win.

b/a have, year after year performed sucessfully for usfsa in national and international competitions. and, with the reported exception of boston, presented themselves well within the skating community.

they are also the only usa team to survive within the dsc/igor environment.

i have also heard from separate sources that naomi in not doing well regarding returning to the ice, and that peter is very frustrated about this. how it will play out remains to be seen. everyone seems to have an opinion.

[Trillian]

Originally posted by what?meworry?
they are also the only usa team to survive within the dsc/igor environment.

Depends how you interpret that. B&A have been with Igor for around five years now. Punsalen & Swallow were also with him for at least five or six years IIRC. He had Joseph & Butler for at least six or seven years, Chalom & Gates for at least six years, and Robinson & Breen for about five. I'm not saying they won't ultimately last longer with Igor than these skaters did, but at this point their record (in terms of staying with Igor, not competitive record) isn't any better than that of several other teams who ultimately either left him, split, or retired.

[what?meworry?]

Originally posted by Trillian
Depends how you interpret that. B&A have been with Igor for around five years now. Punsalen & Swallow were also with him for at least five or six years IIRC. He had Joseph & Butler for at least six or seven years, Chalom & Gates for at least six years, and Robinson & Breen for about five. I'm not saying they won't ultimately last longer with Igor than these skaters did, but at this point their record (in terms of staying with Igor, not competitive record) isn't any better than that of several other teams who ultimately either left him, split, or retired.

you make good points regarding the overall length of time these teams spent with igor, but i'm looking at the long-range development of senior teams, not just in terms of the number of years with igor.

many of igor's early teams like c/g and j//b and s/p, started as kids or teens and entered the arena as teams in novice (j/b started as juveniles, i think) and were highly successful through junior titles and international competition at junior level.

in fact, i think the "igor era" can be credited with raising the ice dance standards significantly. but none are around now as seniors. the most recent unfortunate loss to skating being jamie. and, of course, justin no longer works with igor.

p/s went to igor as married adults with a strong competitive history for that stage of usa dance development. and, igor made remarkable improvements in their skating.

robinson initially went to hess (i believe) in order to skate with breen for a season before igor reeled them back into dsc. again he made significant improvements in the team's skating. additionally, breen had a preset retirement planned, and it was thought robinson would be able, with their positive competitive record, to find another strong partner. (in fact, rumors actually had robinson matched with tchernychev (he had flowing golden locks to match her at the time) who was already an adult at the time and obviously highly trained in dance from ussr.) tchern. was at dsc working solo around that time, i believe.

my definition of successful transition for teams, is to see teams or recombinations of teams (with as few as possible, or even no "retirements") successfully move along into senior. right now none of the other dsc/igor skaters, let alone teams, have made that transition successfully except b/a. it isn't just tenure, but the transition into senior and becoming successful in senior that i'm looking for.

[what?meworry?]

by the way, given the very limited actual competition exposure l/t have had this year (on top of the consideration of last years injuries), i think it is really important for their crediblilty to compete at nationals, whatever they fear the outcome may be.