Grand Prix Aftermath for USA

[Scott]

Well, I think that there are some interesting implications from the recent ISU Grand Prix Competitions for the up coming US National Competition in Dallas.

First, there is no question that Sasha Cohen is the new star and will be the lady to beat at Nationals. She was just wonderful and I doubt that anyone will come close to beating her. With Michelle on a light competition schedule and with Sarah not even competing yet I think that Sasha just has too much momentum for either of them to catch up. Jenny Kirk will look good and could be our bronze medal winner. She has improved so much this year. Angela will be afactor but she too has not competed and I am notnsure what this will do to her. Boy, we sure have a lot of talent in this group.

In ice dance we will have a new national champion. Belbin and Augusto have clearly established themselves on the international scene and if L/T show up at Nationals they will not be able to hold off B/A. I still wish B/A would do somethng about that Elvis program but it is difficult and they should win. I also see Gregory/P pulling up to second. I really think that for the first time in many years the USA is going to have some good dance teams to field on the international circut. The talent pool has gotten much deeper. Nice development for sure!!

Men, well who knows I jsut don't know what to say. Michael Weiss appears to be very determined but the question is can he deliver. Timmy hasn't competed and may be rusty. Matt Savoie could improve on his standing but he needs that quad. This one is up for grabs ( maybe this will finally be the year for Shep Clark!!! Can you believe that he is still competing? Wow.)

Now to pairs. All I can say is oh brother, What a mess! This one is really up fpor grabs and which ever team can skate a clean short and long will win. This is our weakest field and the level of technical ability is not yet where it should be. I Think that S/D are going to be hard pressed by Inoue/Baldwin. However, S/D standings in the grand prix competitions have not been encouraging and they are currently sitting behind I/B in the overall grand prix standings. S/d were anything but impressive in the Grand Prix; they looked tired, slow and out of sinc. They have lost the luster that they used to have. Orscher/Lucash are the third ranked USA grand prix team and could challenge for the third spot at Nationals. However, as much potential that they have, they must do something about speed and Garrett has to land all of his triples, not just some. I have a feeling that Kalesevich/Parchem may be fading and doing that fast. I saw their long at Lalique and it was horrid. They also skated poorly at Skate Canada and this bodes ill for them. Needless to say, this venue is WIDE open and we may even see some of the new pairings sneek in to the top five. The problem here is that we have to establish some consistency and longevity. Yikes, this picture is bleak!!
Oh, one last thought, I can not imagine that Roth and McPerson will break into the top ten at Nationals. They just do not have the technical ability and will be easily passed over by some of the new Jrs. turned seniors.

[JDC1]

First of all Sasha is not "new" and has been skating star since she won silver at Nats in 2000. Now she is in fact a "winner" in two GPF events that weren't exactly the best skated competitions in history so let's slow our roll a bit shall we? Second, the new "star" looks to be Yoshie Onda if she can land her 3 axel at Worlds along with 6 other clean triples. Third, you are really exaggerating Sasha's position in the ladies field at Nats, Sarah (injury allowing) will be there and be well rested and very ready and the idea that Michelle has to catch up to Sasha is ABSURD. What can Sasha do that MIchelle can't...nothing. (And don't even get me started on the Sashacurl and Sashaskid) And before you put Jenny Kirk up on the podium don't forget Angela N and Ann Patrice McD two skaters who are head and shoulders above Jenni in ability. Angela, Michelle and Sarah do not need momentum to beat Sasha and or Jenni, they just need to skate clean and with attack (if Sasha is clean). I am not suggesting it's impossible for Sasha to win Nats, I'm just saying she has as good a chance as Michelle and Sarah but she's going to have to skate better than she has been or hope Sarah and Michelle make mistakes.

As for the men if Timmy Goebel is healthy it's his to win. If he's not and Michael Weiss can keep his wits about him he's the next bet and wouldn't it be FAB if Matt Savoie could beat them both but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Pairs............it seems there are some really decent pairs in Juniors so hopefully they'll stay injury free and progress and in the next 2 years we may have a more interesting Seniors pairs field.

[icesupport]

I agree with you Scott, nice post on all disciplines. Sasha is awesome, Matt is due to receive his recognition at nationals, pairs is a mess and B/A should be nationals champs!!! Let me add on the dance prediction that given the injury to Naomi which has cut their on-ice time to unacceptable levels for top teams, I wouldn't be suprised to see them train leading into nationals, then ask for an injury exemption from nationals, to allow them to skate, IMO, one last time at worlds. They are quite aware of B/A success this year, although I totally agree that the Elvis thing is not good for B/A.

As for Gregory/Petukhov, yes, I guess. But there just isn't anyone else this year to challenge them. I have seen them, N/G and Gib/Pek live this year. Each team has its strengths and weaknesses, Greg/Pet looking the smoothest, N/G the quickest, Gib/Pek having the most difficult programs, look and potential but needs better execution. I would guess that that would be the order of finish at Nationals also unless one team has a problem or two. Of the three, as an "old" ice dancer, I like the look and line of Gib/Pek. While they are just too new this year to have much of an impact, this will be a team to reckon with next fall when they have had more time together. N/G are good, Emilie is a jewel on the ice, but simply put, too short as their line and look "looks" funny compared to other top teams. And, I heard they have financial issues also which I always hate to hear. Greg/Pet are very smooth but something isn't quite right. There programs do seem to be too simple and they need more speed but who knows. Melissa still has a ways to go to catch-up to Denis in terms of skating ability, IMO. As the phrase goes, more time is needed. Maybe its an attitude issue as several people (including me) saw them arguing with their coach at Skate Canada. I wish them good luck.

If I put my USFSA business hat on (and it is a business skating fans), which of those three would I put my energy and money behind going forward? Considering age, experience, former rankings, potential, look, and like it or not, citizenship, IMO, the choice is Gib/Pek. Only time will tell.

[RoaringSkates]

If Shepherd Clark could skate clean, he could do well, but he looses his jumps. I'd read that he had some jump problems at Easterns, if I remember correctly. Nonetheless, I hope he skates well enough that his program is televised. I'd like to see him again. I enjoy his style of skating. Shep Shep Shep!

Another man to take into consideration may be Derrick Delmore. Derrick is another man who is rarely skating cleanly, but when he does skate clean, he's wonderful. We'll see what he can do at nationals. I always have such high hopes for Derrick.

I know, I know...I'm not being realistic with Shep and Derrick. Neither has skated cleanly in some time, and both have problems with consistancy and their jumps. However, I think they are both GREAT! Rah Rah.

Realistically, I think the top men may be, in no order, Tim G., Mike W., Todd E. (if he competes) and Matt S.

I think that the ladies' title is up for grabs. It's hard to judge who might win since we've seen so few of the top US ladies skate - really, we've only seen Sasha and Jenny. Michelle skated only once, although she did well. Sarah and Angela we haven't seen at all. Also, don't forget Ann Patrice - she may end up on the podium. I also like Andrea Gardner, who may end up in the top 6 - is she going to be at Nationals? Beatrica Liang may also be top 6.

Realistically, I think the top women may be, again in no order, Sasha, Michelle, Sarah and Ann Patrice.

Pairs is really hard to call. None of the US pairs have been skating well. I agree that it depends on who skates cleanest, rather than who has the best programs.

Dance will be interesting. It should be between L/T and B/A for the top spot. I hope Naomi is recovered and that L/T are fit and ready to go. I like competition!

[loveskating]

I hope Sasha skates well and wins Nationals and Worlds...she is the one pushing the envelope on all aspects of skating as to quality these days. Virtually all her elements are among the best or the best ever and her program is "the program". Her overall quailty all down the line is one reason I just love to see her skate, no matter what the outcome of the competition.

This includes Sasha's jumps, which while not as big as Irina's, Onda's etc. are really just so powerful and pure, with such a perfect, magnificent backspin position in the air and wonderful arc. Even her loop has gotten so good under Tarasova...its almost delayed! Her 2 axel is absolutely perfect, among the best technically. Her only deficit is a very slight flutz, no worse than Irina's or Kwan's. Her musicality and innovation are also unrivaled.

Also, it would be so good for skating if Sasha won. She is just magic on the ice, even more than Oksana Baiul was. If she is given her due, she will pack them in is my bet...

It will be close between L&T and B&A...its tough because B&A now have a rep among the international judges given their placements in the GP events, and they deserve it too.

Pairs. Hmmmmmm. K&P have a great LP, and IMHO, the basic goods, but one senses that the program is a bit past their comfort zone and that they are just not "there" yet.

Men. Hmmmmm. W/o quad, cannot travel. Its amazing how internationally most of the men just knock off those quads like they were nothing.

[RobinA]

The only edge I see Sasha having over Kwan or Hughes at Nationals is that she's been competing all season, which is worth a lot. I'm a little skeptical that Hughes can bring out a brand new program at Nationals and win the title, but it's entirely possible based on what the other two do. Angela is completely out of the picture as far as I'm concerned. Not only will she have a new program, but her consistancy is non-existent. Jenny just doesn't appear to be there yet. AP WAS having a good year, but we haven't seen her enough to know if she can sustain it. At any rate, I'm not sure she's quite competitive with the top three girls, all things being equal. I think the person to beat at Nationals is Sarah.

Pairs I have a hard time caring about in the U.S. right now, and Pairs is my favorite discipline. I like S/D well enough, but I don't think they are on the level of the World's top pairs. Every other U.S. pair is Junior level on a good day.

Mens is almost as bad. I had hopes for Weir, but he seems to be constantly injured or sick. I don't think he's had a full season in two years.

[icenut84]

Obviously it depends on the performances given, but I find it hard to see the judges leaving Sarah, Sasha or Michelle off the podium. Think about it - Sarah has just won the Olympics. Sasha is a bright new star who's been doing really well this year. Michelle is Michelle Kwan. I can't see any of them missing the world team. I think it'll be 1-2-3 between them, but who knows in what order... :)

[leepn]

Scott- I totally agree with your predictions. I believe Sasha if she skates well will win hands down. We will see if the nerves hold up throughout the week. Sarah is probably concentrating on getting into a fine school which is good for her after having won a gold medal. Where do you go from here? Michelle probably can't believe she is even in the GPF. As far as the men go I am not sure if there is any clear cut winner here. And as far as the pairs go well let's just say the U.S. is in desperate need of a good pairs team. We don't have one pairs team that can actually do the jumps that are in their programs. S/D are not holding it together this season. O/L well hopefully in time the jumps will come together for one of them. The only team I see that is ok is Baldwin and his partner.(Sorry I keep forgetting her name) She is really good and he looks good with her. He should have tried pairs long before this. In dance I do believe that B/A has made a name for themselves this year. L/T are always having a problem during the season and maybe we need to look to the future. G/P I have heard has revamped programs. And I think that Melissa has really come into her own and looks great with Denis. N/G well they are just too short for the sport even though they are both individually good skaters. It is obvious when you see them they have lost some ground during the years. I cannot comment on G/P because I haven't seen them in person.
It will be an interesting year for all and can't wait for Nationals to start. Good luck to all those who are competing.

[icyboid]

The only reason why I'm hesitant to peg Sasha as the favorite is because of her inconsistency. Despite her improvements, she hasn't shown this season that she can skate a clean program.

Granted she has done well and competed a lot in the GP, but who were her biggest threats? Viktoria Volchkova isn't nearly as consistent nor competitive as Sarah and Michelle. Fumie Suguri is a lovely skater but is definitely outclassed by Sarah and Michelle. Yoshie Onda can outjump, but her presentation scores are atrocious compared to the rest of the American ladies. She also dealt with an ailing Irina Slutskaya who was competing far below her usual skill level while in the GP.

I'd say Sasha will win only if she's clean, and if Sarah lands less than 7 triples and Michelle lands less than 6 (possibly 5, I think it could go about 50/50).

[sk8lvr]

Here is my 2 cents about Nats.


Ladies:
I agree with those that have said that no one is a shoo-in for the title. It will come down to who puts the goods down in the form of 2 excellent (maybe even not just clean, they're so close) programs. I've enjoyed seeing Sasha over the Grand Prix but I don't believe that she is the be all, end all best skater ever. Her big test of consistency begins in January with Nats.

Pairs:
Scott/Duhlebohn had horrid SPs at every GP event they entered (IIRC). But they had excellent LPs in Canada and Paris. I just watched the Lalique prog and was amazed at the improvement over last years LP. Its more musically accesible and flows much more. To me, they are the US's best hope on the international scene.

Inoue/Baldwin-I think they will take the silver (maybe gold if S/D falter). They have a great fast exciting style but are not polished.

Kalesavich/Parchem-I love this team's line and smoothness. But the bottom line is that if they can't land jumps and throws, they are going nowhere fast. I'm not sure what the problem is with her jumps. Does she even land the 3 sals in practice???

Orscher/Lucash and Roth/McPherson are a step below these pairs but could capitalize on their mistakes. O/L impressed me on the GP that they actually completed their elements pretty consistently. Hopefully they can smooth out the rough edges and get some speed. I've also heard good things about Hinzmann/Hartsell and can't wait to see them at Nats.

Mens:
I have no clue!!!!!:D

Dance:
It should be a fight between B/A and L/T. I'm not overly impressed with the Elvis freedance but who knows where L/T are with training. It should be pretty exciting.


I just love Nationals. Its my favorite competition of the year.8-)

[jss]

My thoughts about Nationals this year (and I'm even more excited cause I'm going!!!):

Ladies
I agree that Sasha has the upper hand in that she has been competitng, but I don't think she is THE one to beat. First I think Sasha is great, but I don't agree that her programs (especially her long) are these perfect masterpieces. I was particularly unimpressed with her COR version of her long. It just seemed to lack spark, although I do think she should have beat VV. I do think her short program is the best I've seen this season. Michelle, well she is Michelle. I think that is all that can be said. It will be interesting to see what changes she has made since Skate America. I will say that when Michelle has been counted out she always come roaring back, so watch out. Sarah I don't know about. I have no doubt she will show up well prepared but I don't know if she will have the polish that she needs. I still think that a clean Sasha or Michelle will beat a clean Sarah any day. JMHO. Ann Patrice is the spoiler this year. I think she can most defiantely shake things up. Jenny has improved and I enjoy her skating but she still has a little ways to go before she can be a BIG threat to the other ladies. Angela is a huge question mark. She is absolutely wonderful, but has been inconsistant in the past and without any competitions I'm afraid she might look rusty. I hope not. Overall this competition is going to be the best, I think.

Men
Well the whole competition is one big question mark. What will Timothy look like? Which Michael Weiss will show up? Will Todd be there and if so what kind of shape will he be in? Can Matt finally break through? What about Johnny Weir? I think Timothy and Michael will probably be on the podium. Todd should be, but again what kind of shape is he in.

Dance
Well I've thought about whether I will even go to this event, but I like L&T alot and B&A have definately improved so it will be interesting to see the two battle it out. Other then those two I have to honestly say I don't care.

Pairs
I agree that this competition could be one big mess, but at leat it is WIDE open. S&D always improve as the season progresses, but I've never been overly impressed with them. I do think they will for sure be on the podium though. I&B are my picks to win. I think they are a nice pair and might be the pair of the future. K&P are my favorite, but like others have said they can't do the jumps and throws with any consistancy. Hopefully a break through will happen at Nationals. O&L and R&M can make the podium if these other teams don't perform well. And of course, I always pray for a miracle that the Stieglers will finally deliver on the promise they once showed.

Just my thoughts.

[thvudragon]

Wait just a minute, to say that Sasha is the one to beat is really pushing it. Sasha has never come close to beating Michelle. Sasha has yet to show that she can overcome her consistancy problem. I really have no idea about Sarah. She is going to come into the season late. From what I saw at Campbell's, she has a lot to do. Her program doesn't flow. It's seems to jam-packed with in betweens. Angela is also another anamoly. It will all depend if she keeps her head together.

On the men, Tim will win only if he lands those quads he's famous for. If not, his very poor artistry will put him into 2nd or 3rd. The other factor that needs to be considered is if Todd chooses to compete. Michael has had problems lately. Only if he lands a clean quad will he have a chance of winning.

TV

[SkateGuard]

Even though the media has touted this GP season as disappointing, I thought (except for pairs, of course) it was pretty successful for the US..

I think Sasha Cohen and Belbin/Agosto have set themselves up as the ones to beat at Nationals, but with Kwan only skating at SA and Sarah Hughes and L/T injured, anything is possible....

What I am the most excited about is the amount of competition. I just recently watched my 1999 nationals tape, and the aura from the coverage (I wasn't there) was a bit deflated. We lost half of the Olympic team, there was only 8 senior dance teams (and the junior champs got better marks than the senior champs), and the SLC scandal was brewing. This year, we have the first matchup of Hughes vs. Kwan since the OOOOOs, wide open races in pairs and mens, and an incredibly talented and exciting dance field (don't forget about Navarro/Shmalo and the two teams who have moved up from junior!).

Only six weeks!

Erin

[nits]

I agree with JDC1's post.
I'd also like to add that of the ladies, it is Onda, NOT Sasha that is pushing the envelope this year.

[duane]

here's my 2 cents.

like most, i'm looking forward to Nationals mainly for the ladies!! i think sasha is presently the best, most exciting female skater out there. she has built momentum throughout the year, and her performances have improved with each competition (IMO, her most recent competition--COR--was her best showing). still, i dont think she is the "skater to beat" at Nationals. the woman who has won Nationals for the past 5 consecutive years owns that title. michelle is still the darling of the National judges, and IMO they will be looking to give the title to her (and no, i am not saying that michelle hasnt earned her National titles). also, Nationals always seems to bring out the best in michelle. she had the whole arena rocking last year (and i had the pleasure of being there! yea!). so, even tho this has been sasha's "coming out" year, i still think michelle is the skater to beat at Nationals.

i have no idea whatsoever about sarah. i mean, other than Campbells, we havent seen her perform since SLC. still, one can never count her out, as she is very competitive and has built a reputation of being extremely consistent. still, i think the National judges have repeatedly shown their preference for both michelle and sasha over sarah, and think the gold medal with be a showdown between michelle and sasha.

AP, Angela (?), and jenny are all dark horses to end up on the podium...extremely dark if michelle, sasha, and sarah all compete. if sarah doesnt compete, i see AP as the skater on the podium. she could even be on top of the podium if both michelle and sasha were to meltdown.

p.s.
why is onda being mentioned? isnt this discussion about US Nationals? still, one triple axel does not a star make! (and this is from one who LOVES the big jumps!) ;)

[nits]

I mentioned Onda because I think it's a bit unfair to say Cohen is pushing the envelope this year. The absence of Kwan and Hughes has made this season relatively easy for Cohen. I don't think one can count either MK or SH out just because Sasha has won 2 GP events. I just don't see her pushing the envelope.
If anything, it is Onda that has risen to the occasion and the Japanese ladies.
sorry if that offended anyone.

[Mayra]

I agree, Sasha has *the program* of the season. But her biggest weakness is her inconsistancy and her habit of making "silly" mistakes. And you can never underestimate Michelle Kwan. Personally though, I think the title will be decided by Hughes or Cohen. In the past, the U.S. judges have gone with Sasha at Nationals, but that was before Sarah became an Olympic Champion. Given equal skates by both, I think they will go with Sarah. Its hard to see where Angela stacks up right now given we have not seen her at all this season.

Right now, the men are looking to be a bit zzzzzz. In the dance competition, I think L&T will win the title again. I lurves B&A but I'm not to sure about their FD, even though Ben is a ROCK STAR!

Apart from the ladies, I think I'm looking forward to seeing the pairs competition. With so many new teams coming up H&H, D&H, V&I, O&L etc...that third spot on the team is up for grabs(assuming S&D and I&B skate clean). I hope it isn't a splat fest. 8O

[Badams]

i sort of think that, for the women, it will be sarah. she is doing the ratings a favor by staying in it and i think she will be rewarded. of course sasha looks like the one to beat becasue she is leading the GP with points, but look at who she has competed against! nobody! and didn't she come in 4th at campbells?(although she deserved 3rd in my opinion). so the podium is far from predictable.

i think michael weiss will win it for the men. timmy is hurt and not sure about todd.


worlds...now that's another story. that all depends on what happens at nationals! we are all in for some exciting skating!

[Scott]

Very interesting responses to this so far.

Regardless of what has been said i can only say that Sasha is the one to beat this year. She has the elegance and has in fact delivered on the Grand Prix. Quite frankly she should have won Cup of Russia ( I still don't get how she lost out on this one!). By competing she has had the ability to work out the kinks in her programs which Michelle, Sarah and Angela have not. whatever you think this will have an impact. Sasha will most probably have more of a comfort level with her program than the other three mentioned. While I really like this ladies field I still have to say that this event is Sasha's to loose at this point.

Concerning pairs I would say that of all the teams the one that has the strongest consistency with the Jumps is Orshcr/Lucash. They also have the best executed throws. I had the opportunity to see them at Skate Am erica and the other US teams did not compare in these areas. However, they have avery difficult long with lots of intricate moves and this is slowing them down. They need more speed!!

Roth and McPherson are out and have no hope of a top five finish this year. One team that has to be watched that no one has mentioned is Vise/Ibera who knocked off Hinzman/Hartsell at midwesterns. They could really be interesting.

Getting back to Ladies I predict that Sasha will win, Michelle will get the silver and
Ann Patrice will be third ( should I duck now?).

MEN: Tim (1st); Matt Savoie (2nd) and Michael Weiss (3rd) I really wonder how Ryan Bradley will make out this year, could he be in the top 5?

Pairs: I have no idea!!!! The top three will involve a shootout between Scott/Dulebohn, Inoue/ Baldwin, Orscher/Lucash and Don/Hunt. I say Don/Hunt because I see Kalsevich/Parchem fading. I was really disappointed with their performances at the Grand Prix events and really think that they have a big problem this year. I hope that I am wrong because I really like this pair. But facts are facts.

Dance: Belbin/Augusto win it with Gregory/Petukov in 2nd. 3rd-who knows?

[karina1974]

Originally posted by thvudragon
Wait just a minute, to say that Sasha is the one to beat is really pushing it. Sasha has never come close to beating Michelle.
TV

Hello, obviously, you didn't watch the 2000 Nationals. I believe the standings after the short had Sasha in 1st place. She came VERY close to beating Michelle, but a fall in the long dropped her to Silver.

Not to mention that, had she stayed on her feet, she just might have skated away with Michelle's Bronze in SLC.

[jss]

Not to mention that, had she stayed on her feet, she just might have skated away with Michelle's Bronze in SLC.

Yeah and if Michelle hadn't fallen she would probably be the Olympic champion. What is your point?

[Chris_E]

Hello, obviously, you didn't watch the 2000 Nationals. I believe the standings after the short had Sasha in 1st place. She came VERY close to beating Michelle, but a fall in the long dropped her to Silver. Not to mention that, had she stayed on her feet, she just might have skated away with Michelle's Bronze in SLC.


Ummm... and if Michelle stayed on her feet in the SLC she would have won gold.

There are a lot of what ifs...

Chris

[duane]

Originally posted by Scott
Sasha is the one to beat this year. She has the elegance and has in fact delivered on the Grand Prix. Quite frankly she should have won Cup of Russia. By competing she has had the ability to work out the kinks in her programs which Michelle, Sarah and Angela have not. whatever you think this will have an impact. Sasha will most probably have more of a comfort level with her program than the other three mentioned. While I really like this ladies field I still have to say that this event is Sasha's to loose at this point.

very interesting comments.

and, if sasha enters Nationals as the favorite, i wonder how she will respond to this pressure. she was the favorite at Lalique and Skate Canada, and even tho she won, she made silly mistakes. she seemed to do her best at the competition where she wasnt the odds-on favorite (at COR, a russian skater is always the favorite. LOL!). michelle may actually like the idea of entering Nationals with someone else (finally) as the favorite, which may trigger the "attack" mode that she performed with at 2000 Worlds! :)

[karina1974]

Originally posted by jss
Yeah and if Michelle hadn't fallen she would probably be the Olympic champion. What is your point?

Read what I quoted in my first post and you will see my point, that Sasha has come close to beating Michelle twice, contrary to thvudragon's opinion.

[sk8pics]

Originally posted by Scott

However, S/D standings in the grand prix competitions have not been encouraging and they are currently sitting behind I/B in the overall grand prix standings. S/d were anything but impressive in the Grand Prix; they looked tired, slow and out of sinc.

I'm not going to argue with you about Scott and Dulebohn's performance at Skate America, but how can you call their long program performances at Skate Canada or (especially) Lalique "tired, slow and out of sync?" :?:

And while it's true that I&B are ahead of S&D in the points standings, their finishes were no better than S&D (two 5th place vs. a 6th and 2 5th place finishes) and were related to which event was the nonscoring event for S&D. Neither pair did great overall in terms of their final placements, and although I&B did make fewer mistakes they are still a bit rough and lack polish. But congrats to them for skating relatively cleanly throughout.

I'd still bet on S&D to win the gold medal in pairs, but of course, ice is slippery, so who knows what will happen!
Pat

[Trillian]

Originally posted by Mayra
(assuming S&D and I&B skate clean)

Now THAT is a bold assumption at this point. If any of our pairs was at all likely to go out there and skate cleanly it might be Orscher & Lucash, and considering the improvements that are needed still in their skating, I doubt it would be enough to win them the title. "Reasonably well" is about all I'm expecting of Scott & Dulebohn or Inoue & Baldwin, though I think it would be enough to get either of those pairs onto the world team. By most people's standards this year's pairs event probably will be a splat-fest, but I think it'll be very interesting in terms of the future potential. I'd pick S&D and I&B to duke it out for the top spot, K&P and O&L as the most likely contenders for third--with lots and lots of other contenders. Aside from Hinzmann & Hartsell (who I really like, btw, now that I've seen a tape of them) and Don & Hunt, you've also got to factor in Vise & Ibarra and the Stieglers, both of whom could surprise people this year. I know Roth & McPherson have gotten more exposure because they were on the Grand Prix, but I really can't see them being in the mix or anywhere near it this year. I hope there's not too much pressure on them to be big time contenders at nationals this season; they've had a lot of things to deal with in the last year and they obviously aren't done adjusting yet. I still think they have potential, but they need time. In addition to the pairs I've already mentioned, it sounds like Spielberg & Joeright and possibly even Handy & Allen will also be able to challenge R&M.

[Scott]

Originally posted by sk8pics
I'm not going to argue with you about Scott and Dulebohn's performance at Skate America, but how can you call their long program performances at Skate Canada or (especially) Lalique "tired, slow and out of sync?" :?:

And while it's true that I&B are ahead of S&D in the points standings, their finishes were no better than S&D (two 5th place vs. a 6th and 2 5th place finishes) and were related to which event was the nonscoring event for S&D. Neither pair did great overall in terms of their final placements, and although I&B did make fewer mistakes they are still a bit rough and lack polish. But congrats to them for skating relatively cleanly throughout.

I'd still bet on S&D to win the gold medal in pairs, but of course, ice is slippery, so who knows what will happen!
Pat

Well maybe I am being a bit harsh on S&D because they did skate a fairly good long at Lalique. Still the program was not up to par and had lots of little glitches that a team of this calibre should be well past. They were slower than usual and several of the lifts looked as if he was having trouble. And while their placements were similar to Inoue/Baldwin this is very bad news for them. This was Inoue/Baldwins first season on the international circuit -Scott and Dulebohn are far more experienced and should have been way ahead of this team. Quite frankly I think that Scott and Dulebohn need to do something quick because when inexperienced teams who are not yet technically there, and I am talking about Inoue/Baldwin and Orscher/Lucash beat them in Short and or long program placements, I think that the warning signs are blairing look out. I like Scott and Dulebohn a lot. I think that they have the best pair look on the ice. Unofortunately something has happened here that may cause them not to be national champs this year. I hope this is not the case. This team must get its act together in the Short. If they skate the short at Nationals they way they did on the grand prix circuit they will be in big big trouble. Skating a clean long is good but if they dig a deep enough hole with the short someone else will be holding the gold medal. ( BTW I really like their long music! it fits them well.)

[sk8pics]

Originally posted by Scott
Quite frankly I think that Scott and Dulebohn need to do something quick because when inexperienced teams who are not yet technically there, and I am talking about Inoue/Baldwin and Orscher/Lucash beat them in Short and or long program placements, I think that the warning signs are blairing look out. ... This team must get its act together in the Short. If they skate the short at Nationals they way they did on the grand prix circuit they will be in big big trouble. Skating a clean long is good but if they dig a deep enough hole with the short someone else will be holding the gold medal.

Neither I&B nor O&L beat S&D in the long program, at any event.

Agreed that Scott & Dulebohn need to clean up their short, but whether they would be in big, big trouble with one mistake or even two, obviously depends on what the other teams do. I suppose it is possible they could dig a deep hole with a poor short program at nationals, but I think it's unlikely, given their past record at nationals and their usual pattern of improving as the season progresses.

Pat

[Scott]

Pat, they were beat by Orsher/Lucash in the short at Skate Canada. And by a wide margin at that. I didn't mean to allude that they beat them in the long, or anyone else. Howver, I/B's placements enabled them to have a better record. That is what I was trying to say.

[thvudragon]

The SP doesn't matter much as long as you place in the top 3. From there, you control your own destiny. MK's long had much more sophistication. Sasha still has those lower jumps and poor, shallow edges. And for the Olympics, Sasha's program had relatively low speed. If she stayed on her feet, she would have won gold. Sasha's skating quality is better than Sarah's. If Sasha nailed that 3lutz/3toe, she would have won. The judges favor the skating of MK, Irina, and Sasha over Sarah. With her fall though, she didn't skate nearly as well as Michelle.

[Mayra]

Originally posted by Trillian
Now THAT is a bold assumption at this point.

LOL, Wishful thinking? :P

[Scott]

Originally posted by thvudragon
The SP doesn't matter much as long as you place in the top 3. From there, you control your own destiny. MK's long had much more sophistication. Sasha still has those lower jumps and poor, shallow edges. And for the Olympics, Sasha's program had relatively low speed. If she stayed on her feet, she would have won gold. Sasha's skating quality is better than Sarah's. If Sasha nailed that 3lutz/3toe, she would have won. The judges favor the skating of MK, Irina, and Sasha over Sarah. With her fall though, she didn't skate nearly as well as Michelle.

well, in the case of the US National Pairs competition this year the Short is going to play a major role. With so many teams basically on an equal footing there is no "favorite" like in the ladies or ice dance. Therefore, If, for example Scott and Dulebohn skate like they have at the grand prix they may be place out of the top three which could have a seroius impact on their ability to recover and grab the national title by skating a good long. If you look at Lalique I thought S/D skated one of the cleanest longs and yet what good did it do them? The couldn't come anywhere near to breaking into the top three. The short held them way back. So, the short does matter. Actually with no favorite and so many variables in this event, the venue will be interesting to watch and see who or what shakes out.

I don't think that you can compare Sasha's performances this year to what she did in the past. I really have noticed a new maturity and an improved elegance to her skating. I don't think that she is slow and i think that her jumps are fine. I don't think thaht Michelle's jumps are any higher but maybe I am wrong. Overall I think that these two skaters are comparable and they should dominate US Nationals. I just don't know how Sarah will do this year not having seen her compete. I do think it was a mistake not to do the Grand prix events but she must have ad some good reasons to do so.

[nits]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but at Nationals '00 wasn't it very close between Sarah and Sasha for silver? So it seems Sasha came very close to being the broze medalist...and not as close as some think to winning the gold that year. And many felt Sarah "wuz robbed" of silver that year.

[SkateGuard]

Nits, you are correct. I want to say it was 6-3 or 5-4 between Sasha and Sarah for the silver.

And yet the media keeps saying that Sasha nearly beat Michelle for the gold......

Erin

[Scott]

Who cares what happened among Sasha, Michelle and Sarah in 2000 Nationals. What counts is what is happenng now. Lots can change two years. Right here and right now hregardless of what some may want to believe Sasha has established herself as the one lady to be beat this year. This is not to say she won't be beat, nothing is guaranteed. Michelle and Sarah could rise up to the challenge and polish her off.

[Cmoneynoair]

In the ladies event I think it will really be a toss up between Sasha and Michelle if they both skate clean programs. I personally don't think Sarah will even medal this year, she hasn't been in events this year and has got to be pretty hard to come back an have Nats as your first real comp. of the year. I think AP if she skates clean she will probaly win 3rd. I think that Jenny is good, but still can not yet compete with Michelle, Sasha, and Sarah because she is often very inconsistant. Ad for Angela she is huge question mark because she hasn't competed at all this year and it will be interesting to see how she does.

I think it will finish like this:
1. Sasha
2. Michelle
3. AP
4. Sarah
5. Angela
6. Jenny

[JDC1]

How has she established herself as the lady to beat? You have me very perplexed in snowy Washington, DC as I wait to be told I can go home early.

She had not completed one clean complete 7 triple free skate this year.

She has not completed one "true" 3/3 this year.

She has been beaten by - Michelle, Sarah, AP and Victoria Volchokova

Sorry, but her season hardly is exemplary or extraordinary. This kind of Sashahype(TM) makes it hard for a person like me who ADORES Sasha's skating to not roll my eyes so hard into the back of my head that they get stuck there. Sasha has established that she can indeed beat a relatively weak international field and actually that's good, it's important to get winning under your belt . HOWEVER, Michelle Kwan KNOWS she can win Nats - 7 times and World - 4 times and can medal at the OLYS - silver, bronze. Sarah knows she can medal at Worlds, bronze and knows she can win Olys - Gold so "HELLO" how is Sasha the one to beat? Let's atleast wait until Nationals until we start saying so and so has established herself. MIchelle and Sarah don't need to prove anything this season so I think in fact we may see them both skate gorgeously at Nats.

[adrianchew]

JDC1 - you can unroll your eyes now. ;)

I'll say this as a Sasha fan - Michelle Kwan is the lady to beat at US Nationals. All Sasha and Sarah have done at this point is established their own names that the judges will willingly give them the title, if they can outskate Michelle.

If Michelle pulls off 6 triples, it will very likely take 7 from Sasha or Sarah to grab the title away. I suspect both Sasha and Sarah know what they need to accomplish to win at Nationals. It sounds like Sasha is putting in 110% effort in training and preparation, while Sarah is taking a relaxed approach (she's got nothing to proof like JDC1 says).

Trying to pre-determine the winner of a competition is mostly pointless - we can predict, and guess, and hope - but until its done with and the results are known... it counts for nothing! :P

[quarkiki2]

I think Adrian is right -- Michelle Kwan OWNS Nationals. That's not to say she will win this year or ever again, but c'mon! She's finished first or second since 1994, for cryin' out loud! Sarah and Sasha have done a terrific job in the last two seasons and have deserved every medal they've won, but Michelle is currently holding the title and that alone makes her the one to beat.

You can bet that a win at Nationals for anyone will be all the sweeter if they beat Michelle.

[JDC1]

Thank you Adrian. Eyes unstuck and back on screen.

I adore Sasha and I think she has the goods to beat both Michelle and Sarah but I also think the reverse is true. If Sasha truly outskates Michelle, I a die hard MK fan, will be thrilled!! I think it would be fabulous to have these skaters exchanging titles and pushing each other like Tara and Michelle did in the mid-late 90's. I do think going by skating ability, innate talent and grace both Sasha and Michelle have an edge on Sarah and if Sarah does attend Columbia full time I just don't see how she'll stay on top of her game but that won't factor in until next competitive season. However, for this years Nats she's going to be well rested and skating without a lot pressure.

[Yazmeen]

Good points, JDC and Adrian, but I disagree on one thing: I think Sarah has more pressure than Michelle, Sasha, AP or anyone else. She is the Olympic champion and now the world EXPECTS her to win Nationals and Worlds. Even in the recent NY Daily article she commented how people keep reminding her she hasn't won a National title. She may be taking a relaxed attitude, but the lights are going to be bright on the Olympic champ in Dallas, and it will be hard not to sweat it!!!!

[duane]

She has not completed one clean complete 7 triple free skate this year.

who has?

She has not completed one "true" 3/3 this year.

didnt sasha land the 3toe/.5loop/3sal at Campbells? this is a true 3/3 sequence.

there have been great comments on this thread. a legitimate argument can be made for each of the top three ladies as being the one to beat...whether it's the 6-time National Champion who will be defending her crown, the reigning Olympic Champion who many will expect to become National Champion, or the skater who has won two Grand Prix events (and should have won three!), and should enter the competition with momentum on her side.

[JDC1]

I believe atleast one of the young Japanese female skaters is the only one who has this year, Yoshie Onda?

My point wasn't that anyone else has , my point was what has she done that should be the marker for all other skaters to aim at this year? And in my opinion, nothing yet. If Sasha had skated a clean 7 triple program with a 3z/3t or something that had more value than Michelle's 3t/3t or Sarahs 3s/3t or 3l/3t then I'd agree, yep Sasha has set the standard. My point is she has set no standard, she has skated well but not spectacularly and if medals were won simply on momentum she'd have the edge, but the Olympics certainly reminded us that momentum can be ended quite easily.

As for the true 3/3 in my opinion the 3s/.5loop/3toe is a sequence not a 3/3 and I know that the rule books may disagree nonetheless it's not harder than a 3t/3t so my point is she hasn't set any standard or bar.

[Louis]

Cohen has done enough internationally that the judges will have no problem giving her the National title if she outjumps Kwan, but she won't win the title either by default or by merely matching Kwan. She and Tarasova need to decide how important this title is -- is it worth peaking for? I would vote "no" and leave the risk elements for Worlds. But we all know Sasha :).

Hughes will face a similar dilemma if she shows up -- something that I am not convinced will happen. With McDonough's recent surgence, Sarah could find herself watching Worlds on TV if she risks too much. I suspect we'll see "comfortable" jump content -- two (f)lutzes, the double axel-triple toe sequence, an attempt at the triple salchow-triple loop, and an optional "Kwan" triple toe at the end of the program in case the combo doesn't materialize. Much as she might not want to, she needs to skate with the goal of just making the World team, not winning. Not letting the triple count dip below six is critical. I don't think the Olympic title will have any weight, frankly; there's too much talent going around for anyone to be held up.

At this point, I think Angela Nikodinov has been relegated to hoping for a disaster from Kwan/Cohen/Hughes. Even if she has the skate of her life, her competitive track record can't compare to any of the other three. McDonough might even have an advantage over Nikodinov at this point. Unless Angela miraculously lands seven triples including one or more triple-triples, I think we can write her off. Jenny Kirk could be a factor next year, but I don't think there's any way she could beat any of the "big 3" with her current programs and GP results.

In the men's event, I think the USFSA will (and must) reward the competitors who stand up on the most difficult jumps. All three slots are wide open. I wouldn't rule out a surprise medallist, such as Scott Smith, based on the way the rest of the guys' jumps are looking.

For pairs, all Scott/Dulebohn need to do is not play giveaway. There's a good chance that they'll be interim champions rather than the next big thing in U.S. pairs, but their pair ability and experience will probably be enough to carry them to the title if they can keep it to one mistake in both programs. They have already skated two completely clean long programs this season, and they have been great clutch competitors at Nationals/Worlds in the past. We'll see.

Two of the other three spots are wide open. Inoue/Baldwin and Orscher/Lucash are the best technical pairs, but Don/Hunt (especially Don) just ooze star quality and are pretty good on the elements, too. And, of course, there's Kalesavich/Parchem, who have the best basic skating, but I don't know how her continued inability to do the difficult solo jumps will factor in.

In dance, it's a no-brainer to go with Belbin/Agosto, who have "won" Nationals (or at least the FD) for the past two years. The third time will be the charm, and they'll finally get the title to back up their performance. This season on the GP alone, they've already doubled L&T's career GP medal count, and they have the added advantage of having an extra 4-5 months of training. I bet Lang/Tchernyshev withdraw and are granted a bye to Worlds in order to delay the matchup. Gregory/Petukhov should be a solid third (or second, if L&T withdraw) based on international results, but a shakeup isn't out of the question. Should be interesting.

[adrianchew]

Originally posted by Louis

She and Tarasova need to decide how important this title is -- is it worth peaking for? I would vote "no" and leave the risk elements for Worlds.

I would actually vote "yes" - I do think Nationals will be a big highlight this year, and frankly I'm not thrilled that she's going to have 2 competitions (GPF & Worlds) with 3 programs each within a short period of time.

But we all know Sasha :).

That statement is priceless! :lol:

And I totally agree with all the rest of Louis' analysis - except I have a feeling Sarah will be at US Nationals, unlike him. ;)

[adrianchew]

Originally posted by JDC1

As for the true 3/3 in my opinion the 3s/.5loop/3toe is a sequence not a 3/3 and I know that the rule books may disagree nonetheless it's not harder than a 3t/3t so my point is she hasn't set any standard or bar.

It used to be considered a combo but no longer - recent ruling change, now counts as a sequence. I wouldn't put too much weight into how much a 3-toe/3-toe combo buys you by itself... Amber Corwin doesn't get much credit for doing it in the short program... a 3-lutz/2-toe seems to count for more.

I'm willing to wait for Sasha to land the 3-lutz/3-toe in competition - she definitely can do it easily enough which I've seen myself. I suspect she could easily do a 3-toe/3-toe... she did some 2-toe/3-toe combos as a way of warming up the 2nd half of 3-lutz/3-toe without stressing the body as much as constant 3-lutz/3-toe attempts.

I suspect we won't see a quad sal attempt this season - but who knows if she might suddenly get the inclination to attempt it again?