Michelle's 2002-03 Competition Strategy

[rack]

There's a hearsay/rumor on the MK Forum that Michelle is telling people she intends for US Nationals to be her first (presumably post-Campbells) competition of the season. Since Michelle doesn't seem to be listed for any of the Grand Prix events, this particular hearsay/rumor has at least a chance of being accurate.

What I'm curious about is whether you think this is a good strategy. Ordinarily Michelle would have at least 3 international competitions under her belt before Nationals.

I assume Michelle can afford a TV, and quite possibly cable, so she can keep an eye out on what her competitors are doing all season. And I'm sure there are many people who believe if not competing makes Michelle happy, then that happiness will translate into a more successful Michelle (I'm not saying that isn't true, just that I anticipate people saying it).

So those positions aside, and given that injuries are not an issue, is it a good move not to compete before Nationals, or a questionable one?

[quarkiki2]

It seems to me that it's a strategy she's not tried yet. and that's not good or bad. Although she has skipped the Grand Prix before (1999), she did compete in Opens that fall. Since that season, and because she and a few others passed on the Grand Prix that year, the rule was instated that if you are a seeded skater, you couldn't compete in ISU open competitions unless you did the Grand Prix. She won't have the competitve exposure that the Grand Prix/Open skaters will, but I doubt anyone, let alone judges, will forget about her. Heck, she may even be a treat by then, or at least something they haven't seen every weekend!

Typically, Michelle has a fairly strong debut, falters around Skate Canada, and then charges back for Nationals and Worlds. Already this season she looks better than the Goodwill Games, so who knows?

She's generally a cool competitor who doesn't usually falter due to nerves. Of all of the competitions she's entered, you can really only say that nerves affected 3 or 4 of them -- and even then she didn't fall of of the podium. I don't expect her to freak out about Nationals, after a break it may feel like "coming home." Without all of last season's immense pressure, Michelle looked very comfortable at Campbell's -- and a comfortable Michelle will make any podium, especially when her program is older than two/two-and-a-half weeks!

I predict that if she's relaxed and happy she'll be making her 10th trip to worlds and that might be with another national championship. It's a tough call -- all of the ladies looked terrific at Campbell's and I'd call odds fairly even for Nationals between Michelle, Sasha and Sarah. If any of them have an off-night, I fully expect Ann-Patrice and Jenny Kirk to knock them off the podium.

[JDC1]

I think she should sit the whole season out and go to school full time and then if she really misses it come back next year. Ofcourse the problem with that is she wouldn't be seated and she might have to do more competitions to "qualify" for Nationals. She typically skates her best at Nats & Worlds so I think the timing is right. She's a pretty seasoned competitor so I don't think it really matters all that much that she hasn't competed much during the Grand Prix. I think she'll have a much tougher battle at Nats than she has in the past so it should be very interesting. She did look happier and freer at Campbells, last season she only looked that "loose" during exhibitions.

[spiralsrfun]

Well IMO her strategy seems wise and she has a few things going for her this season:

1) For the first time since her 1994-1995 season she has NO pressure to win...absolutely none.
2) A fresh perspective from Scott Williams, someone off-center, risky, and fun...a motivator.
3) She seems peaceful and happy again since her 2002 SLC exhibition.

Michelle came to Campbell's I'm sure not expecting to win...nobody really expected her to win. All of the women made errors, but Michelle was by far the most relaxed looking and happy out there, and she won. This was a very good debut for her, the program flows and is fun.

Nationals:
Always a tough competition because the USA ladies field is so deep and talented. All the same players that were there last year will be there this year, and again it will be extremely competitive. That said, Michelle usually skates very strong at Nationals and, like at Campbell's, will go into it without high pressure to win, unlike Sarah and Sasha...this could bode well for Michelle, and I expect her to skate very well and medal, if not win.

4Continents:
Hey, you never know. Michelle could very well go to this competition since it's a month after Nationals and a month before Worlds...plenty of time in-between, and since she isn't going to the GPF, why not go. This competition could be a chance for her to expose her programs to the judges before Worlds, allowing feedback for tweaking before Worlds. Also, she could have a very strong chance to win this title and add another prize to her full cart...one she's never had or been to. Her competing here would certainly add more exposure to this event...which needs more exposure.

Worlds:
Michelle's warmed-up while others have been competing all-season long and are tired from travel. This could also bode well for her, and the fact that it's in her home country could as well. She'll certainly be very comfortable with her programs now. Michelle usually shines at Worlds with strong 6-7 triple performances since 1995 Worlds. Again, without the pressure monkey on her back, she could skate excellent and medal, if not win.


This season will be amazing for all the ladies. Irina and Victoria will be strong...team Japan is way on the rise...and team USA is just amazing. We shall see whether Michelle's strategy will work or not...that depends on her, but so far she seems to be on the right track. ;)

[michele]

I wonder if having 2003 Four Continents in China might also be an extra incentive for Michelle to go, but I guess it depends on a lot of things (school for instance). Anyway, it's way too early to speculate when we don't know for sure if she'll compete at Nats. :)

[AxelAnnie22]

Let me start by acknowledging that I have absolutely no idea what is in Michelle's mind. (I hardly know what is in MY mind).

However, as a strategy, sitting out the season until Nationals is a smart one for her.

First of all, she completely eliminates the risk (however small or large,)of losing to Sarah, Sasha, or AP (not to mention anyone else). When she arrives at US Nats., there will be much mystery, hype, and fanfare. All to the good for Michelle. US Nats., since Tara, has belonged to Michelle. It is like a homecoming.

Second, by waiting out the season, she can watch the others. If Sarah and Sasha are consistently landing two 3/3 (and I include the Sasha's 3/3 Sequence in this), she can make a determination as to whether or not it is worth the risk or competing. And, since there has been no formal announcement, she doesn't even have to withdraw!

So, as a strategy, it is a smart one. She has nothing to lose, and everything to gain.

Having said that, I will add, that I think she should just sit out, have a fun year, and see what she wants to do.

[kara]

Great posts, spiralsrfun and AxelAnnie...very true.

[Mayra]

How good her strategy is, probably depends on what she hopes to accomplish this season. Winning Nationals and then Worlds being the obvious purpose. Any stragety that allows her to feel comfortable skating, is probably the best stragety for her.

If not competing makes Michelle Kwan happy though, then maybe she should question her motives for continuing to compete at a World level.

[bunghodog]

well we now know she will ne at skate america go michelle!!!!