2008-2009 Worlds predictions?

[Artemis]

With Canadians, US Nats, and Europeans over, is it too early to make a prediction? Here are mine -- mostly based on reality but with a shot of wishful thinking thrown in here and there too.

Women:
1. Kim
2. Asada
3. Rochette

Ok, definite wishful thinking there. If Joannie can keep it together she definitely has the goods to be on the podium this year. And I'm picking Yu Na over Mao because I think Yu Na has the better overall package -- as exciting as it is to watch Mao's jumps, her Tarasova LP is not doing her any favours this year. But Yu Na has battled nerves at Worlds in the past, so nothing is a given.

Men:
1. Kozuka
2. Oda
3. Joubert

I'd love to see either Chan or Abbot on the podium but I don't think it will happen. And although Brian has undeniably amazing jumps, he's still fighting the artistic side and that's holding him back. But the two Japanese guys aren't completely consistent, so it could be anyone's game. Any of those five, or Verner or Lysacek or Ponsero could be on the program, depending on who puts it in on the day.

Dance:
1. Virtue & Moir
2. Delobel & Schoenfelder if they're back, otherwise Domnina & Shabalin
3. Domnina & Shabalin if no French team, otherwise Davis & White

Again, some definite wishful thinking there, but I think Tessa & Scott have it to be on top this year, despite (or perhaps because of) their late start. And I'm definitely showing a bias by picking Davis & White over Faiella & Scalli. I can't stand the Italians' LP this year -- I figure if you need a program explanation to understand how the costumes, music, and theme all work together, it shouldn't be allowed.

Pairs:
1. Pang & Tong
2. Savchenko & Szolkowy
3. Zhang & Zhang

This one is the hardest to predict, but that's how I'm calling it. Sadly I don't think Jessica & Bryce can repeat their podium finish, not unless there are a lot of falls by some of the other top teams.

[AgnesNitt]

I think the US is going to have its head handed to it on a plate (except in ice dancing).

Mroz---is it just me or are his connecting elements about what you'd expect to see in someone working on a FS3 program? I mean, I watched him on youtube, and it was crossover, crossover, 3turn, jump, oh look there was a mohawk. His footwork didn't ring my chimes either. The Japanese will have him for lunch.
USFSA is crazy to send him over Weir. It's the waste of a spot.

(I'm taking a deep breath, my rant is over.)

Hey congratulations on post 5003.

[MQSeries]

Mroz---is it just me or are his connecting elements about what you'd expect to see in someone working on a FS3 program? I mean, I watched him on youtube, and it was crossover, crossover, 3turn, jump, oh look there was a mohawk.


Upon initial viewing I thought his program really lacked inbetween stuffs also. However, after seeing his LP skate 3 more times now, I feel that Mroz did have a decent amount of inbetween stuffs, and the program itself wasn't as bad and as empty as I had initially thought. His presentation now is still somewhat stiff and juniorish, but it's still a lot better than when Tim Goeble debuted as a senior. I have to agree with Bezic that Mroz's futre looks promising if he can continue to grow. I think he'll be in top 10 for his senior World debut. (Please ditch the hideous LP outfit though.)


Ladies
------
1. Mao
2. Kim
3. Rochette


Men
----
1. Oda
2. Joubert
3. Ponsero

Pairs
-----
1. S/S
2. Z/Z
3. P/T

Dance
------
1. V/M
2. D/S
3. D/W

[Petlover]

I compared the scores for the top 2 pairs in US Nationals to the Top 5 pairs in Europeans. Based on that, I am predicting that McLaughlin/Brubaker and Denney/Barrett will both come in somewhere in the top 7. Keeping in mind that McLaughlin didn't skate as well as she usually did since she was very ill with flu, if she is fully healthy and trained, I think McLaughlin/Brubaker have a good chance of medaling. Denney/Barrett are very good and with the extra 2 months of training may just surprise everyone and medal - keep your fingers crossed!

[Artemis]

I compared the scores for the top 2 pairs in US Nationals to the Top 5 pairs in Europeans. Based on that, I am predicting that McLaughlin/Brubaker and Denney/Barrett will both come in somewhere in the top 7. Keeping in mind that McLaughlin didn't skate as well as she usually did since she was very ill with flu, if she is fully healthy and trained, I think McLaughlin/Brubaker have a good chance of medaling. Denney/Barrett are very good and with the extra 2 months of training may just surprise everyone and medal - keep your fingers crossed!

Top 7 is definitely doable for both teams, but the podium is a very long shot and they'd have to rely on faults by some of the other teams.

Don't forget that it's never a good idea to try to compare marks from a national competition to an international one -- national judges tend to inflate the marks somewhat, and you can never compare 2 different judging panels. And also don't forget that aside from the Europeans, you have to factor in the other 4 Continents countries, esp. China (obviously) and Canada. If you do want to compare marks, the top two teams at Canadian nationals got 188.43 (for Dubé/Davison) and 182.50 (for Duhamel/Buntin), compared to 178.76 for McLaughlin/Brubaker and 176.27 for Denney/Barrett.

So. Like I say, the Pairs event is hard to call.

[MQSeries]

Keeping in mind that McLaughlin didn't skate as well as she usually did since she was very ill with flu, if she is fully healthy and trained, I think McLaughlin/Brubaker have a good chance of medaling.

I have yet to see a clean LP from M/B. They have great speed and attack, especially for an Amercian pairs, but unless they can deliver clean performances with all the planned technical content executed, I don't see them being on the podium.

[pancakes]

ladies:
1.Asada
2.Rochette
3.Kim

men:
1.Oda
2.Abbott
3.Chan (wishfull thinking)

Pairs:
1. Savchenko Solkowi
2. Zhang Zhang
3. Ukraine Team (love them)

Dance:
1. Delobel Shoenfelder
2. Khoklova Novitski
3. Virtue Moir
4. Davis White

[singerskates]

After watching 4CC at cbc.ca and some on CBC TV and some of the Europeans online and seeing the result protocals, these are my "Possible World Results" when I used the result totals from 4CC and Europeans; Ice Dance.


K/N Russia 196.91
D/W USA 192.39
V/M Canada 191.81
F/S Italy 186.17
K/K Great Britain 185.84


Note: V/M had only 4 weeks on the ice together before competing at 4CC with one of those weeks being taking up with Canadians. Translation? The score they recieved at 4CC was from only 3 weeks of tentitive training do to Virtue's surgery in the fall to both legs. Just think what V/M will score in total 6 weeks from now at Worlds with more training?

Scores adjusted because of Virtue's legs getting more healed and because of Virtue and Moir getting 6 weeks more training in.


V/M Canada 210
K/N Russia 200
D/W USA 196
F/S Italy 190
K/K Great Britain 187

[singerskates]

After watching 4CC at cbc.ca and some on CBC TV and some of the Europeans online and seeing the result protocals, these are my "Possible World Results" when I used the result totals from 4CC and Europeans; Mens.


Patrick Chan Canada 249.19
Evan Lysacek USA 237.15
Brian Joubert France 232.01
Takahiko Kozuka Japan 221.76
Samuel Conesti Italy 220.92


Note: Really hoping that Chan only wins Silver at Worlds so that he doesn't get the Canadian Mens World Champ Pre-Olympic curse; Winning Silver instead of Gold at the Olympics. I don't really believe it, but if you look at the history of the pre-Olympic Canadian Mens Champs (Orser, Browning & Stojko) when they got to the Olympics they usually won Silver or nothing at all. What is it about the Olympics that gets to competitors?

[singerskates]

After watching 4CC at cbc.ca and some on CBC TV and some of the Europeans online and seeing the result protocals, these are my "Possible World Results" when I used the result totals from 4CC and Europeans; Ladies.


Yu-Na Kim S. Korea 189.07
Joannie Rochette Canada 183.91
Mao Asada Japan 176.52
Cynthia Phaneuf Canada 169.41
Fumie Suguri Japan 157.74


Note 1: Top 5 from all from 4CC. Hope Rochette is #1 and Kim is #2 at Worlds.

[singerskates]

After watching 4CC at cbc.ca and some on CBC TV and some of the Europeans online and seeing the result protocals, these are my "Possible World Results" when I used the result totals from 4CC and Europeans; Pairs.


S/S Germany 199.07
P/T China 194.94
D/D Canada 185.62
K/S Russia 182.77
M/T Russia 182.07


Note: Hoping that D/D skate the Worlds clean and over 200 mark threshold to be 2nd or 1st.

[Petlover]

Singerskates, I really like your analysis! Thanks for doing that.

[sk8ergalgal]

singerskates I agree with most of your placings execpt for ice dance. what about D/S from France? I am sure they will try to make it back to Worlds no matter what as these results determine how many teams their country can send to the Olympics.

[skatedancer]

Women:

1. Kim
2. Rochette
3. Asada

Men:

1. Oda
2. Joubert
3. P.Chan <3

Pairs:

1. Pang/Tong
2. Zhang/Zhang
3. Dube/Davison

Dance:

1. Virtue/Moir
2. Delobel/Schoenfelder
3. Davis/White


* GO CANADA! BRING HOME THOSE MEDALS :)

[doubletoe]

On the other hand, if each skater skates her season's best, the top placements will be as follows, minus Yukari Nakano and Caroline Zhang, who are not being sent to Worlds:

1 193.45 Yu-Na KIM KOR Skate America 10.26.2008
2 191.13 Mao ASADA JPN NHK Trophy 11.29.2008
3 188.89 Joannie ROCHETTE CAN Skate Canada 11.01.2008
4 172.53 Yukari NAKANO JPN Skate America 10.26.2008
5 171.22 Caroline ZHANG USA Four Continents 2.06.2009
6 170.88 Miki ANDO JPN Cup of China 11.08.2008

For the men, season's bests are:

1 249.19 Patrick CHAN CAN Four Continents 02.07.2009
2 237.72 Jeremy ABBOTT USA Grand Prix Final 12.13.2008
3 237.15 Evan LYSACEK USA Four Continents 02.07.2009
4 236.18 Nobunari ODA JPN NHK Trophy 11.30.2008
5 232.01 Brian JOUBERT FRA European Champs 01.22.2009
6 230.78 Takahiko KOZUKA JPN Trophee Bompard 11.15.2008

[sk8ergalgal]

Delobel/Schoenfelder are not competing at Worlds due to Delobels injury. Anyone have an idea who might take a spot on the podium now??

[Artemis]

Delobel/Schoenfelder are not competing at Worlds due to Delobels injury. Anyone have an idea who might take a spot on the podium now??

Well I had earlier predicted that Davis & White would reach the podium if Delobel/Schoenfelder dropped out of Worlds, and I'm still hoping for that. I really don't want to see Faiella/Scali move up, I think they're massively over-rated. Khokhlova/Novitski will probably be in the mix too.

Too bad for Delobel/Schoenfelder though, they're such a great team, and it would have been such an exciting competition to have duelling Pink Floyds.

[sk8ergalgal]

Yeah I have been waiting all year for the dueling Pink Floyd's. Oh well. I think Davis and White can definitely move up in the rankings. They are having a really good season.