Sasha C.'s chances for next year

[Hannahclear]

What does everyone think are Sasha's chances for a National or World title next year? Bear with me, I'm so bored with the off season, I've resorted to purely idle speculation.

I think Sasha's chances are good, but she is still a question mark. TT is a very positive move, I think, and I like her program choices, even if they're not terribly original, they're very powerful pieces I know that Sasha can "sell".

As for the much discussed "consistency" issues, I'm not worried, yet--but curious to see if they improve this season. Last season was her first majors, and a clean SP at the Olympics is nothing to sneeze at. She was also very nearly clean at Nationals, no major errors anyway. She hasn't absolutely put 2 clean programs together, but she's come fairly close. I would begin to be concerned if we saw the same results this season, but for now, I think it can be chalked up to inexperience.

Regarding the quad, I think she should avoid it until she has nailed at least 2 seven triple programs in competition. It's too risky with injury, and so hard to land. I'd rather see 3lutz/3toe. :o

[Dustin]

Im not sure - didnt Kulik (and maybe Yagudin?) have a tough first year with Tarasova? I can see Sasha adjusting pretty fast, but I think the consistency will come over months of work with Tarasova. She could be more consistent but you cant just get consistent in 2 months (but if anyone can get a skater consistent that fast, Tarasova can do it). I think the biggest improvement we will see is in the area of programs.

So, I wouldn't base anything on how Sasha does in the Grand Prix (Im thinking she will do very well though), but more on how she does later in the season after working with Tatiana more.

[Lark]

I do not think Sasha will fair too well in International competition, but I think Nationally she has little to worry about.

So I will have Sasha 4th at the GPF (behind Irina, Sarah and Fumie), 1st at Nationals (with Sarah second and Angela 3rd) and 3rd at Worlds (behind Sarah and Irina).

[duane]

i think when it comes to Nationals, it depends on whether or not Michelle competes. i think she is still the favorite of National judges. if michelle doesnt compete, sasha's chances of winning are excellent.

i think sasha's chances of standing on the Worlds podium are excellent; her chances of actually winning are less excellent, but good. the international judges seem to appreciate her artistry/presentation, and if she nails her jumps, her chances of standing on top of the podium are as good as anyone else.

[Lark]

And in my first post I was of course assuming that Michelle will not compete.
If Michelle competes, I fully expect Sasha to finish behind her every time.

[nits]

I think we need to remember that the judges placed Sasha ahead of Michelle in the SP in '00. I think if Sasha skates well and deserves to be placed ahead of Michelle in either the SP, or the LP the judges will do just that.
That said, I think Sasha's chances next year are very good. She just has to get her triples consistent, and put together two clean programs. The US judges seem to like her skating better than Sarah's, so I'd say she has a good shot at winning the National title over Sarah this year as long as she skates clean. Worlds may be another story though. Fumie has shown improvements, and many think Irina is unbeatable, so I am going to wait on that one.

[Tony Wheeler]

Originally posted by nits
I think we need to remember that the judges placed Sasha ahead of Michelle in the SP in '00.

You've also got to remember that Michelle fell on her 3toe and was placed behind Sarah in the short, as well.

[nits]

Excellent point! This shows that the US judges do not hold anyone up and are willing to reward good skating when it should be rewarded.
If I remember correctly, wasn't it very close for 2nd place at Nationals that year.....between Sarah and Sasha?

[duane]

Originally posted by nits
Excellent point! This shows that the US judges do not hold anyone up and are willing to reward good skating when it should be rewarded.

actually, this shows nothing. there is such a thing called a "mandatory deduction", and when someone--even the judges' "favorite"--falls on a jump in the SP, such a deduction must occur.

i do think that "holding up" exists, at most National competitions, including the US Nationals, and at International competitions. tho i think michelle is the US judges "favorite", i also think she has rightly earned most of her National titles--the exception being 2000 Nationals.

[loveskating]

It was Kulik that had a rough first year with Tarasova; Yagudin won Worlds in 1999, which was towards the end of his first year with Tarasova, and if I recall, skated "Lawrence of Arabia" almost perfectly for his LP. Yagudin had already won a world championship under Mishin, however.

IMHO, Kulik had a growth spurt during that year, and it threw his jumps off a bit.

[loveskating]

It is impossible to predict, but nationally, I think that if Sasha skates clean, she can beat anyone except Sarah, IF Sarah lands 2 3/3s in her LP...even with one 3/3, I'm not sure Sarah fairly can beat Sasha skating clean because Sasha is likely to pull some 6.0s for presentation in a clean skate, and IMHO is at least a 5.9 for presentation in a clean skate. Even at Cup of Russia in 2001, before her injury, the Italian judge gave her a 5.9 in the LP, if I recall.

That goes internationally, except I think that Irina can beat Sasha in a clean skate sometimes, because of the tech mark...Irina does not normally underrotate her jumps at all, and they are both huge and of very high quality, all of them.

Sasha has a very solid 3 flip/2 toe loop, for one thing, of very high quality, so in a clean skate, its going to take a 3/3 to beat her, even for Irina.

[Badams]

I think that Sasha has excellent chances this year. In my opinion, if she skates clean she will will be the next national champion...and possibly the next world champion. Sarah has a lot of expectations placed on her this season and she seems rather busy doing things other then training while Sasha seems to be well focused on this season. I'm not so sure what Irina is doing for preparation for this season so worlds will be interesting. But Irina isn't really a slacker and i think she would like to remain world champ. I'm sure she's focused too. Sarah already has the Olympic Gold...and the way some people make it seem...that's the only medal that matters . :roll: I'm sure Sarah doesn't believe that though. But she's smart to take advantage of all that comes with winning the olympic gold. If she doesn't win it this year...there's always next. But who knows what will happen if Michelle gets her head on straight? ;) :D :?: I would just like to add that THIS IS ONLY MY OPINION! :!: :!: :!:

[Excidra]

Sasha's chances next season is good. She will have no trouble making the podium if she turns in a 6 triple program. I don't know about winning competitions internationally. I think the judges are waiting for a show-down between Sarah and Irina. And Sasha will take that third place. But She could shocks us all and take the world title next season(just like Sarah)...

Nationally, I think she is going to be a national champion next year. American judges prefer her skating to Sarah's. All she has to do is deliver the goods and the title is hers. If Michelle is there, then the title belongs to her. Sasha or Sarah will just have to wait until Michelle decides to leave eligible skating.

[JDC1]

I am just wondering about your idea that if Michelle is at Nationals neither Sarah or Sasha can win it? Based on what? That Michelle is so much superior to them both they cannot beat her, even if she falls? Or because Michelle seems to often skate her best at Nationals? I think you are totally wrong. I think whoever skates best with or without Michelle present will win. The season hasn't even started and I will roll on the floor with laughter if Angela Nik or Anne Patrice come along and win Nationals.

[Excidra]

well, Michelle is superior to both Sasha and Sarah on some elements and American judges do favor her.
Also, she turns in a clean skate at Nationals almost all the time.
If you watched last year's nationals, Michelle skate with passion and attack.After her skate, it was clear that Sasha and Sarah were fighting for the 2nd spot.
Also,I did not say Michelle would win nationals with a fall or two.

[AxelAnnie22]

Originally posted by Excidra
well, Michelle is superior to both Sasha and Sarah on some elements and American judges do favor her. Also, she turns in a clean skate at Nationals almost all the time.


Can't argue with what you have said. However, I would have to add that Sasha and Sarah are superior to Michelle in some elements. Spins, to be sure. Sarah's Axel is certainly superior, as are her 3/3's. And, often, Sasha's jumps are better than Michelle's. So, it is kind of who does what and when. Any of the three, could win on any given night

[loveskating]

Well, when it comes to all the spins, Sasha is better than both Michelle and Sarah, or Angela...the only one who is close to Sasha is A.P. with that incredible sitspin of her's...by criteria of speed, centering, fluidity, difficulty, and innovation...and as to presentation of the spins, likewise, its Sasha.

Sasha's, Angela's and Sarah's laybacks are pretty much the same unless one nitpicks a lot, but otherwise, Sasha has the standard amongst U.S. ladies on the spins, IMHO.

IMHO, its Sasha's axel that is superior in the field, because she steps up into it, and Sarah does not (I really have to find my tape of A.P. and check her out more). Michelle steps up into her 2 axel, as well, has great technique on it, but she covers less ice and gets less height than Sasha, and has less speed into it and out of it, too. Sasha's axel is really great, IMHO, very big, technically pure and exciting.