Michelle's Chances At Worlds

[Buzzing84]

I'm well aware that there have probably already been several threads completely devoted to this topic, and countless more that have mentioned how Michelle will fare under CoP, but I took some time reviewing this season's results, as well as the aspects of the new judging system to come up with some general thoughts about her chances.

Looking at both programs, it looks as though Michelle's biggest disadvantage will be in the long.

Arakawa seems to have the highest short program value with a 29.7. Slutskaya's program comes in a close second with 29.5, although it has been as high as 31.2. After watching Michelle's short program at Nationals I came up with a value of 28.6 for her short program. I'm fairly certain that both her footwork and spiral sequence would recieve a 3 in Level of Difficulty. All her spins probably fall under Level 1, which is where she loses a little bit of ground.

2A 3.3
3Lz-2T 7.3
FSSp1 2.0
3F 5.5
CCoSp1 2.5
SpSt3 3.4
CiSt3 3.4
LSp1 1.2

Total 28.6

At the GPF Slustkaya gained an extra 5 points in her TES with 1.2 of that coming from the spiral sequence and .5 from the footwork. I think Michelle is clearly better on both of those elements, and could conceivably gain 5 points on those 2 alone (again, if they are considered level 3). Then she'd only have to make up another 1-2 points for all the rest of the elements to beat Irina's TES. Remember that I am only comparing Michelle's program to Irina's from the GPF. It's certainly possible that Irina will make upgrades and skate better at Worlds.

I'd say Michelle's Program Components are much stronger in her short program as well. Her weakest aspects in my mind would be Transitions and Choreography. Skating Skills, Performance/Execution, and Interpretation are all quite strong for her, and she should easily score in the 8-9 range with the judges. My guess is that if skated well, Michelle's short program could score easily within the range of 65-70 points.

Unfortunately Michelle would not only need to lead in the short program, but also create a large gap between herself and the other competitors. She is clearly at a bigger disadvantage in the long for several reasons. She doesn't have a triple-triple combination, she doesn't even attempt a triple loop, and all of her spins except maybe one would be graded as Level 1. The value I came up with for her long is a 52.1 at best, and perhaps even lower. For the long, I'll compare to Irina's result at Cup of Russia where she had her best free skate of the season. Her base score was a 57.6.

3T-2T 5.3
3Lz-2T 7.3
3F 5.5
2A 3.3
LSp1 1.2
3S 4.9x
FCSp2? 2.3
SpSt3 3.4
CCoSp1 2.5
3Lz 6.6x
3T 4.4x
FSSp1 2.0
SlSt3 3.4

Total 52.1

Michelle would have to make up a great deal in GOE to keep abreast of the other skaters with more difficult technical programs. I think her program components would be slightly lower in the long program as well.

I'm guessing she can rack up around 190 points combined for both programs.

I think it's certainly possible to win an entire competion under the new system simply by winning the short program, but I'm not sure Michelle could get that far ahead. It will also be interesting to see how things turn out since she'll have to skate her long program twice. I think winning Worlds might be out of reach, but for those who think she doesn't even have a shot at a medal, I disagree.

[fadedstardust]

Yeah but you're banking on everyone skating clean (or the same as they did in a previous comp, if you're looking at the marks). Fact of the matter is, you can't predict how everyone will skate, and thus, even if you know the choreography and previous levels each element was awarded, you cannot predict the outcome of a competitions. All these plus 3, minus 3, and whatever...tacked onto the base value of everything makes a WORLD of difference. You'll just have to wait and see. I don't think anyone expects/thinks Michelle will win gold, even if she did have a more COP friendly program, not with Irina there, and not in Russia, especially after what she did to the ISU with pulling out of Grand Prix late this year. These three factors can tell you more about the outcome of the competition than comparing program base values. Skating is politics, I know the ISU would like us to forget it with this whole COP hoopla being put into place, but the logicistics of the podium still apply.

[lilwish]

If her long is not as heavily weighted as the others and everyone skates clean, doesn't the qualifying really hurt her? Don't they use the long program for qualifying rounds?

Perhaps her seeding (since she hasn't competed this year in sanctioned events - or many of them - please don't get technical about this) will help her since she will be in a less strong group than usual. How would the cop work with that since people do not hold places (in theory)...I am very curious about Worlds this year. I am not sure how I feel about cop and this worlds may decide if I take such an active interest in skating.

I am a huge Michelle fan but I don't think Bolero has jelled and even under the old system I think she would have a tough road to go. Her presentation of this program is off, I think, and I will be interested to see if it improves by Worlds...

just a bunch of random thoughts...I wish all of the skaters to do well. Would so love to see Sasha really put it together. I think her programs this year have the potential but she really needs to buckle down and concentrate...I just don't have that vibe about MK this year...

Arakawa leaves me cold. I get the talent and the jumping and all of it...she's just not my thing. Would love to see Irina really grab it! She is such a doll and has been through so much and has been skating so well this season.

[NoVa Sk8r]

I'm fairly certain that both her footwork and spiral sequence would recieve a 3 in Level of Difficulty. All her spins probably fall under Level 1, which is where she loses a little bit of ground.Nice overall assessment BUT (and I am a Kwan fan) there is no way that Kwan's footwork or spiral rate as level 3. She has the edges but not positions mandatory for level 3. Her footwork needs more 'work.' I'm not even convinced it's level 2.

That said, I am dying to see the PDF 'rap sheet' listing her component scores. I wish she would have done a Grand Prix event just to get a sense of hwere she stnds points wise.

[Buzzing84]

For Spiral Step Sequences here is what is required for a level three.

Element includes five of the following features:

-Sequence incorporates three or more spiral positions plus:
-Two difficult variations of position
-Spirals are skating bothe forward and backward
-Use of both edges
-Unsupported change of edge during one spiral (3 second hold following the change)
-Unsupported spiral position with the free leg either sideways or forward
-Free leg in a total split position either sideways or forward, but holding with one arm

I'd say she has items 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 easily checked off.

If you want to get into the pluses and minuses, here's what a plus three says for spiral sequences as well as footwork sequences.

Step sequence is superior in all phases of execution, highlights the skater's skating ability and is an integral part of the content of the program

-Spiral position held in more than 70% of the time
-excellent flexibility and body line

Seems all there to me. The footwork is a little more on the line.

For a level three here's what it says for footwork:

Element includes four of the following features:

-Mainly use of complex turns and steps
-4 or more changes of direction
-Quick changes of speed during step sequence
-Full use of upper body movement during steps
-Quick changes from steps to turns

I think you could argue for her short program footwork anyway that she could easily have 4 of those characteristics. The long program footwork seems to be weaker, but I think both are clearly level 2 and could be considered level 3.

[Debbie S]

Perhaps her seeding (since she hasn't competed this year in sanctioned events - or many of them - please don't get technical about this) will help her since she will be in a less strong group than usual.

Actually, the groupings for the QR are based on placement at Worlds the year before. The 1st place skater from '04 Worlds (Arakawa) is put in group A, the 2nd place skater (Sasha) in group B, the 3rd (Michelle) in group A, and so on. If a skater from last year's Worlds is not competing this year (Jennifer Robinson), then the next skater moves into her place and the alternating process keeps going until everyone is "assigned". The skaters that did not compete at Worlds last year are placed into groups in the same alternating fashion, only this time the order is based on an alphabetical listing of skaters by country.

What this means for Michelle is that unless someone who placed between her and Irina (9th) is not competing this year, she and Irina will be in the same QR, with Arakawa, Carolina Kostner (she was 5th last year, right?) and others that I'm blanking on right now. I believe Julia Sebestyen was 6th, so she will be grouped with Sasha, Miki Ando (4th), and the 8th place skater (wasn't that Joannie Rochette?). This is the part that worries me about MK's placement. If she gets placed behind Irina in QR and the SP, it would be doubly hard for her to win even if she placed ahead of Irina in the LP - but then again, w/o the ordinal system and the top-3-control-their-own-destiny factored placings, maybe the QR matters less.

From Michelle's comments after Nationals, I am confident that she's going to make the necessary improvements to her program. The one good thing about COP is that 3/3's don't seem to be as important as they used to be - the attention to "program components" could really help Michelle, if she plays her cards right.

[lilwish]

Thanks for the explanation Debbie. The qr worries me for Michelle also. She can end up behind before the short even happens. That is a fairly impossing group to be in. Of course, if she can't handle it then she should be marked accordingly.

I hope she really does the work she said she intended to after Nationals. I love her skating so much but Bolero really has not worked for me all season.

[prunes89]

Worlds keeps looking better and better for Sasha!!!!!!!!
As shown by these posts, Michelle doesn't stand a chance. Irina isn't skating well.......GO SASHIE!

[iskatealot]

Michelle's spiral (as much as I and everyone else love it ) is probably not level 3.......the reson Irina has as many points as she does is because she uses the Beillman position so much which is a higher level position..........I have a feeling that this year isnt gunna be Michelles year at Worlds but then again shes so well known the Judges might try to hold her up so that she places fairly well.......... and I just wanna say how upset I am that Kimmie is too young for Worlds....I think she would probably place pretty well.......

[Schmeck]

I think if Sasha can stay off her butt, Worlds is hers for the taking, but she hasn't been skating all that great this season, has she? I think she'll be getting negatives on her 3lutz and 3flip, but can make up for that with her gumby spins. Why doesn't she do a Bielmann spin or two?

It will be interesting to see how Michelle's 3lutz is called in CoP - I don't think the edge is flutzed, but it isn't a good outside edge either - more of a scraped flat into the take-off. Probably not going to get her any extra points. I've got to get a new ink cartridge in my printer to print out all the data sheets we get with CoP!

[fadedstardust]

Worlds keeps looking better and better for Sasha!!!!!!!!
As shown by these posts, Michelle doesn't stand a chance. Irina isn't skating well.......GO SASHIE!


...No, Irina isn't skating well. She just won Europeans against National champions from a bunch of different countries, but I'm sure that means nothing. Irina beats National champions from a bunch of countries, including her own, and Sasha isn't even the U.S. champion- when she has next to no competition. Worlds is pretty much printing Irina's name as the winner already, not to mention it's held in Russia, which yes, makes a difference. Plus Irina has a triple/triple and triple/triple/ double (or triple/double/double, on bad days). And her spiral is a level 3 not because of the biellman position as people seem to think, but because she does a change of edge on it going in BOTH directions (which means inside to outside going forward, and outside to inside going backwards) THAT is what is getting her the level 3. I really really loved Sasha's skating in the past, and I still do like it, but posts from people like you make me so irritated that I start to enjoy it less and less- because when I hear people think she should be winning the gold medals, all I can do is pick out everything she's doing that prove she SHOULDN'T be winning them, and then I can't enjoy her performance. Sasha is not a champion. Never has been, and while she may still very well become one, she looks more and more to have a fate similar to Nicole Bobek- great ability, no competition nerves. She's got the talent and natural ability, but she just has the wrong attitude. Irina's not nearly as graceful or bendy as Sasha, and not even near as interesting to watch, but she's got the inner strength and fight of a champion, which is how she can get from a convalescence bed to the top of a podium in less than a year, while Sasha goes from beach house in Laguna Niguel to all-American home in Connecticut to plush New York apartment and back to the beach house all under the tutelage of 3 elite Olympian coaches, and still can't climb to the top step. It doesn't matter how well or badly everyone else is skating at any given time, as long as Sasha doesn't change her mentality, she's not going to win. The only difference between a champion and every other elite skater is what is in their heads, and hearts. If I'm not mistaken you're the one who likened Irina's life-threatening illness to Sasha's mild reoccuring back injury, so I won't expect you to understand the differences between these two competitors, or even with Michelle, who has more strength of mind in one finger than Sasha has in her entire body. This isn't to say Sasha isn't the most pleasing skater to watch, because she is, but she's not the strongest, and that's all that matters come Worlds. I expect her to get 3rd, if she stands up. A clean Irina, considering her jump difficulty and level 3 spins and spirals, will beat a clean Sasha. A clean Michelle wouldn't, however, but there's a much better chance of a clean Michelle than a clean Sasha.

[icedancer2]

...No, Irina isn't skating well. She just won Europeans against National champions from a bunch of different countries, but I'm sure that means nothing. Irina beats National champions from a bunch of countries, including her own, and Sasha isn't even the U.S. champion- when she has next to no competition. Worlds is pretty much printing Irina's name as the winner already, not to mention it's held in Russia, which yes, makes a difference. Plus Irina has a triple/triple and triple/triple/ double (or triple/double/double, on bad days). And her spiral is a level 3 not because of the biellman position as people seem to think, but because she does a change of edge on it going in BOTH directions (which means inside to outside going forward, and outside to inside going backwards) THAT is what is getting her the level 3. I really really loved Sasha's skating in the past, and I still do like it, but posts from people like you make me so irritated that I start to enjoy it less and less- because when I hear people think she should be winning the gold medals, all I can do is pick out everything she's doing that prove she SHOULDN'T be winning them, and then I can't enjoy her performance. Sasha is not a champion. Never has been, and while she may still very well become one, she looks more and more to have a fate similar to Nicole Bobek- great ability, no competition nerves. She's got the talent and natural ability, but she just has the wrong attitude. Irina's not nearly as graceful or bendy as Sasha, and not even near as interesting to watch, but she's got the inner strength and fight of a champion, which is how she can get from a convalescence bed to the top of a podium in less than a year, while Sasha goes from beach house in Laguna Niguel to all-American home in Connecticut to plush New York apartment and back to the beach house all under the tutelage of 3 elite Olympian coaches, and still can't climb to the top step. It doesn't matter how well or badly everyone else is skating at any given time, as long as Sasha doesn't change her mentality, she's not going to win. The only difference between a champion and every other elite skater is what is in their heads, and hearts. If I'm not mistaken you're the one who likened Irina's life-threatening illness to Sasha's mild reoccuring back injury, so I won't expect you to understand the differences between these two competitors, or even with Michelle, who has more strength of mind in one finger than Sasha has in her entire body. This isn't to say Sasha isn't the most pleasing skater to watch, because she is, but she's not the strongest, and that's all that matters come Worlds. I expect her to get 3rd, if she stands up. A clean Irina, considering her jump difficulty and level 3 spins and spirals, will beat a clean Sasha. A clean Michelle wouldn't, however, but there's a much better chance of a clean Michelle than a clean Sasha.

Brilliant reply!!

It's that "Heart of a champion" - thing -- like Sarah Hughes at the 2002 Olympics. It didn't matter to me that she flutzed her lutz or whatever, she skated her heart out, she got excited about it, and just lifted the audience and television viewers into another stratosphere.

This is what I like to see, and you're right -- we have never really seen this from Sasha -- will we ever??

Stay tuned, folks...

[prunes89]

Irina won Europeans with a disasterous LP and she basically sucked there. I din't care what anyone says. She should not have won the LP. If Irina can win skating like a junior skater and a worse program than Sasha skated at Marshall's, then Sasha can easily win Gold at Worlds. Sasha is improving, and Irina is getting worse as the season progresses. No excuses this time for Irina. She skated a good exhibition so she wasn't sick or injured. She was just not up to par, and Sasha will be. :bow:

[Tapper]

So, basically, you guys don't think Michelle has much of a chance of winning worlds this year? Is that what you are saying? Even if she ups the point values of her programs?

[fadedstardust]

Irina sucked and still won. Sasha merely faltered (she didn't suck) and still lost. And yet Irina's competition was tougher than Sasha's. Therein lies the difference. At least Irina had a great exhibition- even Sasha's exhibition was flawed.

Either way I'll tell you what I told you about Nationals- let's just wait and see. I wish we were betting on something though, it's kind of a bummer to always be right and have nothing to show for it. It's a thankless job...I wish you would at least be learning the lesson as to why Sasha is losing, and why that is the only thing about her that will be consistent until she changes her outlook (which I suspect she might actually do after Worlds, so she still has time to be ready for the OLYS, don't worry...). But then again I don't know why it bothers me so much that you don't get it. I guess it's frustrating because it's so obvious, I can't grasp how some people just can't see it. I can always see on her face whether she'll fall or not- it's just written right there. For such a headstrong person, the truth is that as much as I like her and think she's a sweet girl and great skater, she's mentally weak, and that's the story of every great skater that never got gold.

[edit: Tapper, I saw your post after I'd replied. I think all Michelle's got going for her these days over the other competitors is amazing consistency. So basically, to me, the only way Michelle will win has nothing to do with whether she ups the difficulty or not (cause she won't), the only way Michelle will win Worlds is if everybody else falls and she doesn't. First of all because there will totally be bias against her from the ISU because of Grand Prix (you can read in some article that he's pissed off that the U.S. doesn't send its best skaters out for GP anymore...) and also simplu because no matter how hard she tries she will not put in the stuff needed to score well with COP. I may totally be wrong, but I just don't think so. Here's what I do think though: there's a better chance of Michelle winning Worlds, than there is of Sasha winning Worlds. Of course, prunes would not agree with me, but when was the last time prunes was right? ;) We could be talking about the next election and prunes would say Sasha's got a shot.

[Buzzing84]

I wish some of you posters would take a little time to educate yourselves on the new system. I read up on all the aspects, and was merely stating what I had gathered. Go and read the section on Levels of Difficulty, and it's all right there. Match up the descriptions with what any skater is doing, and it's pretty easy to get an idea as to what the level will be. I have no doubt in my mind that Michelle's spiral is a level 3. Maybe I am misinterpreting.

I guess I just don't get it. Michelle's spiral isn't a level three, even though according to the document on levels it qualifies as such. And while the impetus for this new, more fair, judging system was the scandal at SLC, Michelle is still going to get marked down because of bias against her caused by her bypassing of the GP Series.

I didn't even start this thread to say Michelle is going to do great under CoP, but was just trying to generally point out what I thought were her strengths and weaknesses. I think she'll need to do a lot of work to get back to the placements she used to have, but I still think she will be one of the top skaters. The fact is, it's all speculation at this point, because only the judges can say whether Michelle's elements, even the simple ones, should have minus 3 GOE or even plus 3 GOE.

Another thing I don't get (and this can be assumed not to be full of sarcasm) is how the skaters will be grouped after the qualifying now. Before it was with FP, but that's out. You could have the top 3 in one half all with higher scores than even the winner of the other half. In the old system the winners of each half would go into the short tied for first. Now we clearly cant have one skater with 120 points being tied with a skater with 102 points. Will the top three from both groups be the last 6 to skate in the short as usual, or will it now simply be the top 6 point getters from the combined qualifying rounds?

[shadymc]

Worlds are Sasha's for the taking???? Now, I like Sasha's skating, but come on. Her program as skated at nationals was not ready for COP and she still had problems. How is she going to skate when she has all the more complex COP moves? They are going to take more of her energy.

With that being said, what MK and SC did at nationals is no barometer of anything. They both said they will up the COP content by worlds. I have no reason to disbelieve them. As for Michelle, she has already shown much more difficult footwork than she's done in years and more varied spin positions. She is never going to be a fast spinner, but she can make up for that with her other elements. Her spiral and footwork can get to a level 3 with a little more work.

I have no doubts that either of them will be in contention for the gold.