View Full Version : A Sarah Short Program Strategy Question
Let's suppose that Sarah and Robin decide Sarah's lutz will never be cleaned up and that it is costing her in the short program. Also suppose that they are comfortable with the quality and consistency of both Sarah's triple sal/triple loop and her triple toe/triple loop.
Now all of Sarah's top competitors (Michelle, Irina, Sasha, Fumie, etc.) are doing either triple lutz/double loop or triple lutz/double toe combos in their short programs, and all of them (Sarah included) are doing triple flips and double axels.
Would Sarah's start value be comparable to the other skaters? Would one of her two triple/triple combinations have a higher start value than the other? And would the fraction of decimal points she would gain for clean jumps be greater than the fraction of decimal points she would lose for no lutz (assuming all the competitors' jumps are approximately the same quality)?
These are the sorts of questions that keep me up at night. :P
trixie
08-08-2002, 09:07 AM
Good questions. Very important coaching considerations.
Because I have the highest regard for the Hughes family I suspect that they continue to have the greatest faith in Ms.Wagner, otherwise she would not have remained the coach of record.
A great coach who is secure will request consults. The obvious move would be to have someone else help Sarah with the lutz. This may already be happening this summer; I don't know.
Sarah is a feisty competitor with both guts and finesse. I do not see her throwing in the towel on the lutz. She wants to work to become a complete skater, if one can consider the Olympic Ladies champion a masterpiece in the making.
They want no weak elements and sometimes perception overtakes reality. I do not see that lutz as any more glaring than some others. Where I look for her to improve is in the upper torso-stroking, etc., keeping the head up an still, less telegraphing.
As far as the short program in Salt Lake goes, I loved it and thought there were some brilliant moments in it. Of couse ,I admit, I was blown away by the dress.How I wish she had worn it in the long...perfect backdrop for that medal. Sorry, off topic.
hoptoad
08-08-2002, 10:23 AM
rack, I love the what ifs too.
Concerning doing a triple-triple instead of a 3lutz-double, haven't judges in the past given less credit in the short for a 3toe-3toe than for a lutz combo? I think that strategy might work only with a harder combination, maybe a 3flip-3jump. But then, if she avoids the lutz, she be left with an easier triple for the single jump. What if she did a 3-3 lutz combination, still with imperfect technique, but at least as well as she's done it to date?
I don't see Sarah giving up on the lutz and think we'll see at least some improvement this season.
Debbie S
08-08-2002, 11:05 AM
The problem with doing a 3 sal/3 loop instead of the lutz combo is that Sarah will have to land it. Olympics aside, she's struggled with it at times during the last few seasons, most recently popping it at Nats (and if she'd landed it, would have easily finished second ahead of Sasha). And b/c it's the short program, the judges will be looking at the completed rotations very carefully, with mandatory deductions coming for any cheats.
I also think that judges expect to see a 3 lutz, as it is the hardest triple the women are currently doing. I remember hearing that a 3 toe/3 toe was considered easier than a 3 lutz/2 toe, which is why I never understood Amber Corwin's using the 3/3 in her SP. But a 3 sal/3 loop would have more value than a 3 toe/3 toe.
The most likely scenario is that Robin and Sarah will keep the lutz in the SP. I did read at the beginning of last season that Robin and Sarah had discussed a tech overhaul and decided to put it off until this summer. So we may see improvement, although to be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Sarah's lutz technique remained the same come Skate America.
trixie
08-08-2002, 05:38 PM
Learning and teaching a lutz is not brain surgery. Millions of kids with less than the fraction of ability of Sarah have learned them on crowded sessions in group lessons. Sarah, no doubt has, at one time done clean, text book lutzes and will do them again. It is not a weakness in the coaching or strategizing skills of the skater nor the coach.
Most of the time it is mental. Bad habits are amplified or magnified under stress. Good coaches do make an effort to re-teach elements or have someone else do it. Fresh eyes help, too.
It would be difficult for them to explain to us what is going on with the lutz and even more difficult to set the elements in the program, based on a mind set of thinking she can can never nail one element.
People who criticize, theorize or endlessly debate the elements like calling next move on a snooker table must have their reasons for doing so.
The factors regarding what goes in a program, beyond the required elements, are complicated and personal. What if all skaters were the same ? No fun there. For the skater to explain to us why they do what they do is akin to them trying to engage in a book discussion with someone who has not read the book, but merely sat and watched the other person read it. Most futile and pointless, really.
I can't guess how this particular skater and coach will make these decisions but I contend that omitting the lutz will not be an option.
Marco
08-09-2002, 01:40 AM
What about her solo triple? Her 3flip hasn't always been the most full rotated as well. If say she goes for 3toe3loop as her combo, then the logical thing to do would be to do only a 3sal off steps since the toe, sal and loop are her only more fully rotated triples.
AxelAnnie22
08-09-2002, 02:00 PM
[quote:f627647d32="trixie"]Learning and teaching a lutz is not brain surgery. Millions of kids with less than the fraction of ability of Sarah have learned them on crowded sessions in group lessons. Sarah, no doubt has, at one time done clean, text book lutzes and will do them again. It is not a weakness in the coaching or strategizing skills of the skater nor the coach.
[/quote:f627647d32]
[color=darkblue:f627647d32]I agree with all of that, except the bit about Sarah having a clean, text book lutz at one time. I doubt that. The problem that Sarah has with her lutz and flip is seen by the height with which she has to use with that free leg when she picks in. She has VERY poor technique on those jumps, and always has had. It is not rocket science to fix. I suspect Robin has left it alone because it has not been costly enough to Sarah's scores to go through the adjustment of fixing it.
I suspect that all that will change. Sarah has been dinged, internationally, for that lutz in the short. I suspect that Sarah will not be cut a lot of slack as OLY Champ anywhere but here at SA. Also, I don't think that Robin and Sarah have exhibited a realistic assessment of Sarah's abilities and problems in the last two year (with the exception of Robin fixing her LP prior to the OLYS). I form this opinion as a result of comments they have made regarding Sarah's scores and placements.
Back to strategy. If they can sub a loop or sal combo, that would probably be a good plan. Sarah should be able to place consistently in the top three after the short, placing her in good stead for the long.
Sarah has a lot of work to do on her upper body and stroking, as well as on those toe assisted jumps. Unfortunately, changing jump technique can lead to a period of adjustment resulting in missed triples, falls, etc. One has to know and be willing to take the hit for a season, to come out on the other end of it. Ask Tim Goebel - he had a difficult year when he went back to work on his artistry. It will be interesting to see if Robin wants to take the hit now. I suspect not. I suspect she would rather not have Sarah's first year as reigning champ tarnished with problems with her jumps. But, we shall see.
BTW, I saw Sarah a few weeks ago, at COI, and her lutz was no better. Sasha's, however was true and correct. [/color:f627647d32]
In the last two years Sarah has twice taken bronze at the Grand Prix final, won one gold and at least two silvers at various Grand Prix events, taken silver and bronze at Nationals, bronze at Worlds, and won the Olympics. She is currently the number two skater in the world (and the number one American) in the ISU rankings. A realistic assessment of her abilities and problems is that she has been extraordinarily successful, especially when you realize she has five years less international experience than her two primary competitors. And fixing her long program between Nationals and the Olympics was no small thing; it was the reason why she was able to win.
When I posed my questions, it was to find out about start values in short programs, and how much room to maneuver a skater has. I appreciate the fact that threads have minds of their own, but it truly wasn't intended as a let's analyze Sarah's lutz, which, imperfect though it is, hasn't held her back in the eyes of international judges nearly so much as people assume.
Just a question? How did Sarah become the number 2 skater in the World? IIRC, Michelle has come out on top more times these past 4 years than Sarah....so how does Sarah become #2? She has only beaten Michelle and Irina twice? (when both have made mistakes no less..)
I hope nobody gets offended and starts PMing me, but I am just curious as to h0w Sarah is ranked #2?!
I don't know what formula the ISU uses for its rankings, but I just went back and checked, and as of June 2002 Irina is number one with 3380 points, Sarah is number two with 3225 points, and Michelle is number three with 3161 points. Maria is number four with 2643 points and Viktoria is number five with 2303 points.
AxelAnnie22
08-09-2002, 04:53 PM
[quote:58e065cd4e="rack"]
When I posed my questions, it was to find out about start values in short programs, and how much room to maneuver a skater has. I appreciate the fact that threads have minds of their own, but it truly wasn't intended as a let's analyze Sarah's lutz, which, imperfect though it is, hasn't held her back in the eyes of international judges nearly so much as people assume.[/quote:58e065cd4e]
With all due respect, I believe Sarah's lutz has held her back in the SP, both of which are the point of the discussion. I didn't realize that the element required was a combo jump, I thought it was a lutz combo.
[color=indigo:58e065cd4e]
If it is simply a combo, I don't know why more skaters don't do something else. I would think that a correct 3 Loop, 2 Toe, for example, would have the same value (at the end of the day) as a 3Flutz/2toe. Also, I would think that a person with a real flutz problem and some reliable 3/3's (like Sarah) would be better served doing a 3/3 in the short, rather than a lutz combo.
I hope someone weighs in on the start value issue[/color:58e065cd4e]
Originally posted by nits
Just a question? How did Sarah become the number 2 skater in the World? IIRC, Michelle has come out on top more times these past 4 years than Sarah....so how does Sarah become #2? She has only beaten Michelle and Irina twice? (when both have made mistakes no less..)
I hope nobody gets offended and starts PMing me, but I am just curious as to h0w Sarah is ranked #2?!
Just a question--Is your name nits for a reason?
Originally posted by AxelAnnie22
Sarah has a lot of work to do on her upper body and stroking, as well as on those toe assisted jumps. Unfortunately, changing jump technique can lead to a period of adjustment resulting in missed triples, falls, etc. One has to know and be willing to take the hit for a season, to come out on the other end of it. Ask Tim Goebel - he had a difficult year when he went back to work on his artistry. It will be interesting to see if Robin wants to take the hit now. I suspect not. I suspect she would rather not have Sarah's first year as reigning champ tarnished with problems with her jumps. But, we shall see. BTW, I saw Sarah a few weeks ago, at COI, and her lutz was no better. Sasha's, however was true and correct.
Boy, you folks do get restless during the off-season! ;)
I guess you guys could just PM me when you're done critiquing every little thing Sarah does.
You know what? Say what you want right now about Sarah's lutz because it's time you just got it out of your systems. Like trixie said, she may be working on it as we speak. Why don't you just take their word for it?
There is nothing wrong with Sarah's upper-body and stroking. This, perhaps the most subjective thing about skating, is what I always liked about Sarah, even before the Olys, and that's the one thing I would absolutely leave be. She's got more musicality than anybody I've been watching. The lutz, sure, it's a technical thing, and anybody could see it when it happens and say yes, it should be fixed, and I hope it will be myself, but expression is something that is purely in the eye of the beholder.
CMc,
I have every right to ask how Sarah is ranked #2, which is a valid question, without a snotty response from you. I think your response is a bit uncalled for. I thought that there were certain posting rules that needed to be followed on this board? Your post towards me was very sarcastic and I didn't appreciate it.
I do not understand how Sarah could be ranked #2, so I asked. What is the problem with that?
Well, you know, nits, MY question was a simple question as well, but I am sorry for offending you.
I just thought I'd post it since you said you didn't want to be PM'ed.
Originally posted by nits
Just a question? How did Sarah become the number 2 skater in the World? IIRC, Michelle has come out on top more times these past 4 years than Sarah....so how does Sarah become #2? She has only beaten Michelle and Irina twice?
OK, I'll respond to you in a much nicer tone, nits.
First of all, why are you counting the past 4 years when Sarah didn't even reach the senior ranks until 1999? Of course Michelle came out on top 4 years ago, because she wasn't up against Sarah at that time.
Second of all, I don't think her being ranked #2 for this fiscal year means she's better than those 2 ladies. I, of course, have my own humble opinions, but it's just #2. Plus that whole gold medal thing probably had lots to do with it.
Hope that helps you a little, nits.
I'll ask you about your name in the off-topic forum, deal?
8)
adrianchew
08-10-2002, 08:57 PM
CMc - please tone it down. Luckily you smartly chose to edit your post before I read what was actually said, but I don't want to hear trouble and your name in the future. Whether it be said publically or via PM - if I continue getting complains from others... :evil:
~adrianchew~
Actually, adrian, I didn't edit anything out, I just edited the jumbled stuff that didn't transfer from the old forum, and that's why it's edited--The words are as they were written.
I already apologized to nits. Why can't he just accept it?
I'm sorry that you had to step in though.
Hannahclear
08-11-2002, 03:04 PM
I disagree that Sarah does not need to work on stroking. She has a very strong tendency to pump her strokes and her shoulders are often quite rounded.
I wouldn't be surprised if the lutz got a tech overhaul by the beginning of next season, but I'd also be surprised if tooling with technique put the stopper on those 3/3's for a bit.
loveskating
08-12-2002, 08:10 AM
Well, all I know is that no matter who the skater, a flutz and underotating a flip and being off center on most of your turns, and pumping on your strokes, having your head and shoulders forward all the time, things like that, are all supposed to get deductions in the SP either on the tech or presentation marks.
Sasha Cohen is by far my favorite skater, but I can admit that she flutzes slightly, and so its seems fair to me that she is dinged for it...but ONLY if others are as well!! The rules need to be applied fairly.
I would think a difficult 3/3 combination would be worth as much or more than the 3 lutz/2 toe loop or 3 lutz/2 loop in the SP. The problem is that the 3/3s are not all that consistent for any of the ladies (say, as compared to the men, who very consistently do 3/3s) so doing a 3/3 in the SP can either put you up there, or it can really take you right out of all the running.
bcskater
08-12-2002, 09:14 PM
i dont think that a 3sow/3loop would compare to a 3lutz/2toe *especially sarahs, because of her slight cheated landing* but i remember seeing her complete a 3loop/3loop when she was younger. if she was to remove the lutz, they should replace it with a 3loop/3loop then. i think that is the only one that would contend with a lutz combo.
RobinA
08-13-2002, 11:52 AM
CMc - I'll agree that Sarah has more musicality than anybody out there right now, but you gotta admit the upper body (posture) needs work. She's easily got the worst posture this side of Goebel, although it has improved over the years.
As for the lutz....I'd be real surprised if that ever gets fixed. She's come too far with the problem and getting it fixed now will require her to take too much of a hit when it comes to consistancy. While she has been dinged for the flutz, she's the Olympic gold medalist. She has no real reason to go through what it would take to fix it now.
duane
08-13-2002, 01:42 PM
i still dont think people take one important thing into account when it comes to sarah's jumps: her height. i think more than anything, physics just wont not allow a female of sarah's height (last i heard, she was 5'6", and i wouldnt be surprised if she is now 5'7") to ever have a "perfect" jump technique. already, sarah is probably the tallest female skater ever to consistently land triples as she does, and as she continues to grow up (and out), landing them will be even more difficult.
regarding the lutz, i dont really think it has held sarah back. for years, in the SPs, usually the only two skaters who consistently placed ahead of her were those with more established reputations (maria, michelle, irina, and later, as sarah continued to rise in the standings, she started placing over maria). after SLC, i remember many voicing the opinion that sarah's 4th place standing was actually too high--that other skaters (mainly fumie) should have placed over her (i only saw the top 4 performances, so i cant voice an opinion on that).
also, perhaps sarah's lutz hasnt been severely penalized because very few of the top eligible female skaters have perfect lutzes (and with maria no longer eligible, we've lost one of those who had).
allegria
08-13-2002, 10:15 PM
Originally posted by duane
regarding the lutz, i dont really think it has held sarah back. for years, in the SPs, usually the only two skaters who consistently placed ahead of her were those with more established reputations (maria, michelle, irina, and later, as sarah continued to rise in the standings, she started placing over maria).
I disagree. Sarah has been placed behind not only the three skaters you mentioned, she's been placed behind a clean Nikodinov (01 worlds) Gusemeroli (00 worlds, though Sarah placed above her at the olympics) and a clean Cohen (00 and 02 nationals, 02 olys). In a well-skated competition, the errors on her lutz and flip could easily leave her buried in 4th or 5th place. From that position, it would be easy to medal, but I suspect Sarah is looking to win, not just medal.
Re: whether Sarah should just drop the lutz in the short. IMO, since her 3 sal/3 loop is both less consistent than her lutz and tends to be pretty cheated, I'm not sure the higher start value would overcome the technical flaws enough to warrant the risk. Of course, all of this is just idle speculation until fall, when we find out whether Wagner has decided that the flutz is more than just "a visual error..." :roll:
I think this is a valid topic and there is no need to get "pro Sarah" or "anti Sarah". I think it's too late to fix her flutz totally but my guess is Robin could work on how extreme it is so the deduction would be lower, her flip has certainly gotten better so it's not out of the realm of reason. She most certainly rounds her shoulders, hyper extends her arm and has a break in her leg during her spiral however, she also has quick feet, excellent speed and really gorgeous spins. She really is a very talented skater and even though she's not my favorite I think (most) of her weaknesses are balanced out by strenghts. It will be intersting to see if she and Robin are able to "fix" some of her problems, clearly the judges see them or she wouldn't get 4th place in the Olys in the short and 3rd in the LP at Nats when she had 7 triples.
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