How will Michelle fare with CoP?

[Lark]

To my knowledge, Michelle has never competed under the new code of points.
How, in others opinions, will she fare?
Will she be unbeatable, like Plushenko, or will she be struggling?
I am very curious what others think.

[Barinade]

I think she will do amazing. It seems to be realllllllly rewarding good programs, and she definitely has those. Also I think her elements are really good quality and she'll be able to score high on them.

[Lark]

I agree Barinade.
I think Michelle has verrryyy good, solid footwork.
But, to play both sides, she is very slow.
How will her lack of speed be judged?
Will her occasional superb performances (ie: 2004 Nats LP) keep her ahead of quicker, more technically advanced competitors?

[vanillalatte]

I agree Barinade.
I think Michelle has verrryyy good, solid footwork.
But, to play both sides, she is very slow.
How will her lack of speed be judged?
Will her occasional superb performances (ie: 2004 Nats LP) keep her ahead of quicker, more technically advanced competitors?


I would disagree that Michelle is generally slow in her overall skating. Her spins are slow, yes, but they are also very well controlled and centered and her positions are good. She may not get many bonuses her spins, but she shouldn't get deductions.

But, Michelle's overall skating is very fast. She doesn't stroke very quickly, but because her technique is so good, she flies across the ice. Her strokes are very efficient. So I don't see her being deducted for this.

[Artemis]

I don't see her getting any "deductions" either. However I also don't see her getting any bonus points for interesting and difficult entries into elements. Her overall skating skills, choreography, and interpretation will likely continue to score high, but not necessarily any higher than other skaters ... and those other skaters are willing to do what it takes to create programs that take advantage of the CoP system.

[Lark]

Oh, vanilla, I always thought her skating was rather slow, compared to someone like Sasha, Sarah, Tara, etc.
Maybe it is my perception.
Will she keep her place in the Top 3 rather easily?

[Schmeck]

Having seen Tara and Michelle live, on the ice together (COI) and Sarah and Michelle live, on the ice together (Boston Nationals and COI) there is no way that Michelle can be called slow - she was much faster than Sarah, that's for sure...

[doubletoe]

I would disagree that Michelle is generally slow in her overall skating. Her spins are slow, yes, but they are also very well controlled and centered and her positions are good. She may not get many bonuses her spins, but she shouldn't get deductions.

But, Michelle's overall skating is very fast. She doesn't stroke very quickly, but because her technique is so good, she flies across the ice. Her strokes are very efficient. So I don't see her being deducted for this.

Yep, Michelle Kwan skates fast! I skated just a few feet away from her on several FS sessions, and although I was under-impressed with the height of her jumps, I will never forget the sound her blades make on the ice: Rrriipp! Rrriiip! It only took her about 6 strokes to get from one end of the rink to the other because she got such power out of each stroke! She is a very fast skater, but I will be interested in seeing if she gets lower artistic marks under the CoP due to the lack of content in-between jumps. She spends most of her program setting up for jumps, and she just does straight skating and crossovers, no creative jump entrances like Shizuka's Ina Bauer or spread eagle.

[Barinade]

I agree, I think Michelle is quite fast as well. I actually really enjoy Michelle's plain crossovers throughout her program. She does them nicely, so it doesn't bore me at all or anything. :P

[Sk8n Mama]

She'll be rewarded for the choreography and artistry. She doesn't front-end load her programs so she'll get credit for that. The jumps are usually clean, too. I don't think she's the strongest spinner so she should be working on that to maximize the point value on her spins. She does need the triple, triple, IMO for the extra points value on the technical. I think one thing really in her favour will be that last year a lot of those triple-triple combos were cheated on the second jump but the skaters seemed to get credit for them (both of Arakawa's wre cheated badly). This time, they'll only get credit for a T-D if they do that.

[fadedstardust]

Yep, Michelle Kwan skates fast! I skated just a few feet away from her on several FS sessions, and although I was under-impressed with the height of her jumps, I will never forget the sound her blades make on the ice: Rrriipp! Rrriiip! It only took her about 6 strokes to get from one end of the rink to the other because she got such power out of each stroke! She is a very fast skater, but I will be interested in seeing if she gets lower artistic marks under the CoP due to the lack of content in-between jumps. She spends most of her program setting up for jumps, and she just does straight skating and crossovers, no creative jump entrances like Shizuka's Ina Bauer or spread eagle.

Well, 6 strokes is actually a lot- most higher level skaters do it in 4 (myself included, and I'm not even the fastest one at my rink). But no Michelle isn't particularly slow (or fast), she just takes her time with each stroke/movement which is why it looks slow compared to choppy crossovers done by some of her competitors. I think she'll do alright under COP. Just alright. The great thing about Michelle is that she does everything by the book- pretty much all her moves are textbook perfect and consistent. But none of them are great- no interesting positions, no difficult variations, no great jump height...so she won't do GREAT, but she'll do fine. But when you see how geared towards the COP some of her competition's programs are, and how much hers really isn't (it's nice and all, but there's no difficult jump entries, no change of edge spins, nothing like that except the reverse camel which won't give her that many points if she drops her hip like she did at Campbell's), I don't think this is going to be particularly good for her placings. I may be way wrong, but I predict her worst placement at Worlds ever this year, unless there happens to be a complete splatfesh with all of her competition.

PS: I haven't slow-moed them or anything, but I don't remember Shizuka cheating her jumps. And even if she did, there's plenty of other girls out there that can do them and that won't cheat them, so it really doesn't make a difference. Meanwhile I don't think that under COP you need a 3/3 to win. I really do not think it would do anything for Michelle at this point. It only gives you so many extra points, and it isn't enough to make up the difference.

[3ggi3]

I hope Michelle does wonderful. But it is so important to get those Level 3s. I am training under the CoP and It is really difficult, ie.. Jeff Buttle recieved Level 1 for his footwork.

[lilwish]

anyone at all who can explain the cop to me email me at lilwish.ltlwish@verizon.net

[Lark]

Any idea how 2004 Worlds would have turned out in the Top 5 with CoP?

[AxelAnnie22]

Well, 6 strokes is actually a lot- most higher level skaters do it in 4 (myself included, and I'm not even the fastest one at my rink). But no Michelle isn't particularly slow (or fast), she just takes her time with each stroke/movement which is why it looks slow compared to choppy crossovers done by some of her competitors. I think she'll do alright under COP. Just alright. The great thing about Michelle is that she does everything by the book- pretty much all her moves are textbook perfect and consistent. But none of them are great- no interesting positions, no difficult variations, no great jump height...so she won't do GREAT, but she'll do fine. But when you see how geared towards the COP some of her competition's programs are, and how much hers really isn't (it's nice and all, but there's no difficult jump entries, no change of edge spins, nothing like that except the reverse camel which won't give her that many points if she drops her hip like she did at Campbell's), I don't think this is going to be particularly good for her placings. I may be way wrong, but I predict her worst placement at Worlds ever this year, unless there happens to be a complete splatfesh with all of her competition.

PS: I haven't slow-moed them or anything, but I don't remember Shizuka cheating her jumps. And even if she did, there's plenty of other girls out there that can do them and that won't cheat them, so it really doesn't make a difference. Meanwhile I don't think that under COP you need a 3/3 to win. I really do not think it would do anything for Michelle at this point. It only gives you so many extra points, and it isn't enough to make up the difference.
Great analysis IMHO.

I have seen Michelle on the same competition ice with Irina and Fumie. Michelle may skate fast, but not nearly as fast as Irina and Fumie.

As to CoP....Michelle will not fare as well IMO as she did under 6.0. Michelle's strength (technically) has been her ability to be consistent (not spectacular) on each element. CoP awards difficulty, as well as consistency, and there Michelle will come out on the shorter end. Aside from her spiral, her falling leaf (which is the most beautiful thing I have ever seen), her moves are safe and secure...which is great, but they are neither inventive nor do they add aspects of added difficulty.

I have one other take on the whole thing. I don't think we will ever see Michelle skate in a CoP competition. Yep - and I mean Worlds. I think this is a large part of why she pulled out of the GP, and I don't think she is at all interested in changing her skating to match the new judging system.

Begin the slings and arrows now! (I am wearing my kevlar vest)
:bow:

[Samskate]

I think you may have a point, Axel Annie! Much as I like Michelle, I'm not sure she's really interested in competing under COP. OTOH, she may be working like mad on upping her entry difficulty, etc. in prep for Worlds. It should be interesting to see what happens. 8-)

:lol: at your kevlar vest comment.

[Schmeck]

There's a quote by Michelle in IFS, pg 10 if you have it, about not wanting to change her skating just because of CoP. Sounds to me like she's just going to skate her way because she loves to compete, loves to skate, and probably feels comfortable enough with her own talent and skill to do well. Wish we didn't have to wait until Worlds to see how she does with CoP though.

[prunes89]

I think Michelle will do well with COP. She is a good overall skater and this should prove to be beneficial for her. I know there are many people that aren't fans of hers, but it amazes me that they don't think she'll do well with COP. I have heard, but not seen, that her speed has improved greatly, as well as height of her jumps. I know when she had her 3/3 is was text book, so if she gets this back she should do very well. I think one of the reasons Michelle didn't do "well" at Worlds (bronze medal is a "bad thing" for Michelle, but many skaters would've loved to have that 3rd place finish), is because the QR obviously hurt her, but the time deduction in the SP cost her alot. Her SP would've easily gotten her 2nd place that night. Sasha was on fire in the SP though and nobody could've touched her that night. My question, do they take deductions for going over the time in COP? I saw Cynthia Phaneuf skate after the music ended at Skate America, and I wonder if she was deducted for this?
Talking speed though. We're comparing Michelle to Irina and Fumie. How do the other skaters compare to Irina and Fumie in terms of speed? Everyone knows Irina and Fumie are two of the fastest, so saying Michelle is slower than them doesn't surprise me. But what about Irina NOW vs. the Irina before her illness? Is Irina STILL that fast? And what about Fumie? I see COP hasn't rewarded her just because she is "fast."
I dont know. I think Michelle will do just as good as Sasha. It's all about strategy, and considering that Sasha is starting to use the same strategy as Michelle, I think that says alot about Michelle.

[fadedstardust]

Prunes89- Cynthia may have gone over the music but the thing is that her music may not have been cut right AT the mark. If your music is, say, 2:25 seconds, then you do have the luxury to end 5 seconds after your music and still be within the time limit. Most skaters do this, just to be safe, whichi s why I (along with others) were bewildered that after all her years of skating, Michelle didn't know better than to not do this. Just because a skater ends after the music does not mean they are over the time limit.

Meanwhile, Michelle won't get sent to the Olys if she doesn't compete at Worlds, so I'm sure she'll go. She won't like it, but she'll go.

[prunes89]

Michelle doesn't want to go to Worlds? I dont understand why she wouldn't want to go!! So many skaters would love the chance to go. Will Michelle be a Nationals? This makes me :evil:

[NoVa Sk8r]

Oh, Michelle will be at Nationals. USFSA will be using the 6.0 system for the last time.
Hopefully, there will be CoP experts there to give unofficial CoP marks?

Michelle doesn't want to go to Worlds? I dont understand why she wouldn't want to go!! So many skaters would love the chance to go. Will Michelle be a Nationals? This makes me :evil:

[shadymc]

I have a different take on the Michelle situation. I don't think the truth is that she doesn't want to up the technical ante and doesn't want to compete under COP. I think she's maxed. I don't think she can do any more difficult 3/3's and I think she is getting too old to compete for a full season in the GP. She practiced difficult 3/3's and she hurt her back. She attempted more difficult spins and other moves for COP and she hurt her back. She's not going to come out and say this, of course. But I don't think her body can take it. I also don't think Sasha can do a 3/3 or a quad in a program and still skate well. But she is not going to state that either. Sorry, I may be wrong, of course, but that's my honest opinion on both ladies.

As for the original question, I think Michelle will be fine under COP. If Shizuka skates like she did at worlds, I don't think anyone can beat her. She has everything but spins-- she has the jumps, the choreography the edges and the coach. But if Michelle skates to the best of her ability and even gets back the 3 toe/3 toe (so she can have 7 triples), there are only 2 or 3 skaters that can beat her, and they would have to have one of the best performances of their lives to do it.

By the way, someone mentioned that Sasha seems to be following Michelle's strategy. I have noticed this more and more in the last few years. So, who thinks that if Sasha has a great season and wins either nat's or worlds, she will stay out of the GP series next season?

[fadedstardust]

I have a different take on the Michelle situation. I don't think the truth is that she doesn't want to up the technical ante and doesn't want to compete under COP. I think she's maxed. I don't think she can do any more difficult 3/3's and I think she is getting too old to compete for a full season in the GP. She practiced difficult 3/3's and she hurt her back. She attempted more difficult spins and other moves for COP and she hurt her back. She's not going to come out and say this, of course. But I don't think her body can take it. I also don't think Sasha can do a 3/3 or a quad in a program and still skate well. But she is not going to state that either. Sorry, I may be wrong, of course, but that's my honest opinion on both ladies.

As for the original question, I think Michelle will be fine under COP. If Shizuka skates like she did at worlds, I don't think anyone can beat her. She has everything but spins-- she has the jumps, the choreography the edges and the coach. But if Michelle skates to the best of her ability and even gets back the 3 toe/3 toe (so she can have 7 triples), there are only 2 or 3 skaters that can beat her, and they would have to have one of the best performances of their lives to do it.

By the way, someone mentioned that Sasha seems to be following Michelle's strategy. I have noticed this more and more in the last few years. So, who thinks that if Sasha has a great season and wins either nat's or worlds, she will stay out of the GP series next season?


Age, at 24 anyway, has little to do with it. The men are older and do much harder stuff and most are still standing up. Elena Liashenko, Maria Butyrskaia, Irina Slutskaia (before she hurt herself with something that had nothing to do with age), and many others are still competing just fine. Michelle's never had major injuries and is doing fine, she could have hurt herself at 12 as much as at 24...this IS a dangerous sport after all. She's one of the few who's never had to have surgery, and all that shebang. Perhaps she can't do triple/triple, but there are manyyyyy people in the world who just can't do them, or who can and then lose them, and that has little to do with age, either. Look at Timmy Goebel- lost everything, got it back by working his *** off. At 24 you really can't say Michelle is "too old" to do a full grand prix, or "too old" to do 3/3 when she is one of the best trained skaters out there. One of the healthiest ones. That's a good excuse, though. But one even Michelle wouldn't use. The closest thing to mentioned age she's ever said is that she has finally realized that an athlete "peaks" and cannot be at top speed all the time. Sasha also realized that this year, and she's 19. Age, schmage. Perhaps when she turns 30 you can say that and have it hold some truth. In the meantime, I haven't heard any reports of her shopping for a wheelchair.

[bridgeport]

TWO POINTS

1 - SPEED / POWER / SPEED / POWER / SPEED / POWER / SPEED / POWER
They are not the same thing and I think some confuse the two.

2 - Over competing will break anyone down. I applaude anyone with enough sense to skip competitions if (in their opinion) it might adversely affect their year-end goal of achievement (worlds, olympics, etc.). I'd rather see less of a skater (and appreciate it when I do) than have them injured, miss training and/or competition (when I will get to see nothing of them).

[AxelAnnie22]

Age, at 24 anyway, has little to do with it. The men are older and do much harder stuff and most are still standing up. Elena Liashenko, Maria Butyrskaia, Irina Slutskaia (before she hurt herself with something that had nothing to do with age), and many others are still competing just fine. Michelle's never had major injuries and is doing fine, she could have hurt herself at 12 as much as at 24...this IS a dangerous sport after all. She's one of the few who's never had to have surgery, and all that shebang. Perhaps she can't do triple/triple, but there are manyyyyy people in the world who just can't do them, or who can and then lose them, and that has little to do with age, either. Look at Timmy Goebel- lost everything, got it back by working his *** off. At 24 you really can't say Michelle is "too old" to do a full grand prix, or "too old" to do 3/3 when she is one of the best trained skaters out there. One of the healthiest ones. That's a good excuse, though. But one even Michelle wouldn't use. The closest thing to mentioned age she's ever said is that she has finally realized that an athlete "peaks" and cannot be at top speed all the time. Sasha also realized that this year, and she's 19. Age, schmage. Perhaps when she turns 30 you can say that and have it hold some truth. In the meantime, I haven't heard any reports of her shopping for a wheelchair.
Wheelchair remark aside.....it is much more difficult to up the tech anti as one gets older. Think Quad and Todd. Also, it is more difficult to find the motivation to continue to put in the time and effort as you get older, and discover that you COULD hav a life LOL! I think both those things weigh heavily in Michelle's skating in the last few years.

And, a question to the people who keep saying "Michelle loves to compete". If that is so, how come she isn't competing more often? Michelle has been a very smart competitor, but she has also been a minimalist. When I think of people who have demonstrated their love to compete, I think of people who, year after year, keep throwing themselves back into the fray.....with very little of what Michelle has garnered in the way of fame, money and medals. I think of Amber, Jennifer R., Angela, Michael W., Elena, Irina, Maria B.and the list goes on. These people not only keep skating, keep competing, but also work to up the ante of what they do out there. Those people earn my admiration.........(even if I don't like all of their skating).

Kevlar vest back in place. :evil:

[ARTIQUE]

Wheelchair remark aside.....it is much more difficult to up the tech anti as one gets older. Think Quad and Todd. Also, it is more difficult to find the motivation to continue to put in the time and effort as you get older, and discover that you COULD hav a life LOL! I think both those things weigh heavily in Michelle's skating in the last few years.

And, a question to the people who keep saying "Michelle loves to compete". If that is so, how come she isn't competing more often? Michelle has been a very smart competitor, but she has also been a minimalist. When I think of people who have demonstrated their love to compete, I think of people who, year after year, keep throwing themselves back into the fray.....with very little of what Michelle has garnered in the way of fame, money and medals. I think of Amber, Jennifer R., Angela, Michael W., Elena, Irina, Maria B.and the list goes on. These people not only keep skating, keep competing, but also work to up the ante of what they do out there. Those people earn my admiration.........(even if I don't like all of their skating).

Kevlar vest back in place. :evil:

Todd & his quad attempts does not in anyway compare to Michelle & 3/3. I believe Michelle was landing 3/3 before she was 15yrs old, and continued to land them periodically from 1995 to 2002. Todd quad stats do not compare. Personally I think there could be physical reasons why Michelle has not even attempted a 3/3 in any recent competitions.

I have noticed that people try to apply THEIR concept of "I love to compete" to Michelle's ideas on her love of competition. It is very clear that both concepts of competing are not the same. Maybe if you consider that Michelle's life & competitive experiences from the age of 7 have uniquely formed her ideas on what her love of competing involves and how her perspectives on life influence her skating decisions. It is not mandatory for Michellle to "love competition" in the EXACT same way that a skating fan or skater does. When you entertain the possibility that Michelle's competitive history and experiences gives her an outlook that neither of us have, then perhaps you may be able to accept the fact that Michelle CAN love to compete but not in the same way you may imagine.

Michelle & COP should do fine because in COP quality does count whether you complete an element of basic or very high technical difficulty. Michelle's skating skills speak for themselves in that she was schooled in excellence and continues to fine tune them. Since Michelle & Raphael are aware of the COP system, have access to GP data, and also have the USFSA and the ISU judges to consult on any areas which are ambiguous, I feel that they have the neccessary tools to create COP friendly programs. It's a matter of choice what COP changes they have/will implement.

[AxelAnnie22]

Todd & his quad attempts does not in anyway compare to Michelle & 3/3. I believe Michelle was landing 3/3 before she was 15yrs old, and continued to land them periodically from 1995 to 2002. Todd quad stats do not compare. Personally I think there could be physical reasons why Michelle has not even attempted a 3/3 in any recent competitions.


Thanks for the thought-filled response. I was not trying to compare a specific element of one skater to a specific element of another.....I merely was pointing out that learning new and more difficult elements is in and of itself more difficult as the skaters get older.

[hiliairyh]

I have one other take on the whole thing. I don't think we will ever see Michelle skate in a CoP competition. Yep

Hmm.. there is a chance you are right, I wonder what the odds makers at Las Vegas will give to your prediction. So if you are right, you can brag about we heard it here first. If you are not, i.e. if Michelle competes at worlds 2005, even if she comes in dead last, then you can choose the kind of eggs you want to apply on your face, (no one will throw darts at you, no need for the kevlar vest), it a self monitor honor system. I am too timid to make predictions, I never know what the skate gods will do.

Michelle has been a very smart competitor, but she has also been a minimalist. When I think of people who have demonstrated their love to compete, I think of people who, year after year, keep throwing themselves back into the fray..... I think of Amber, Jennifer R., Angela, Michael W., Elena, Irina, Maria B.and the list goes on. These people not only keep skating, keep competing, but also work to up the ante of what they do out there. Those people earn my admiration.........(even if I don't like all of their skating).



BTW, when did Amber up her ante? She has a 3t/3t (under rotated in the second jump most of the time for years) I think she keeps up with herself. 4 - 5 years ago, she talked about a 4t, but if she under rotates her 3t, that 4t likely will not happen. Jennifer Robinson, tried some 3/3 (way underrotated) but she had not improved much or up the ante on her basic skating skills. I love her skating, and I wonder why with a clean program, her short was placed behind Sasha's flawed sp at SA 2001, and people were telling me, "Jennifer was so SLOW" Angela, kept competing, when did she up her ante? Michael Weiss, is doing OK to keep up with himself. That quad lutz is as elusive as the quad sal some lady skaters keep talking about. BTW, I find nothing wrong with them talking about the difficult quads. When was the last time Weiss completed a clean 4t both in the sp, and lp? Maria, bless her heart, she peaked at 1999 worlds, 7 triples and beautiful artistry, then she stayed on which is fine with me, but between 2000 and her retirement, did she up her ante?

Jennifer was Canadian national champions for years, I am very sure she has tons of fame with the Canadian folks. Maria kept competing to prove a point to the Russian federations. I wonder if she made more money as eligible or as a pro? Weiss is one of the top US male skaters, I won't say he is not famous here. Amber and Angela unfortunately have to compete in a deep USA field, I agree they must love to compete. OTOH if a skaters has fame and $$ and still chooses to compete, I can't say she does not love to compete.

I don't see Tiger Woods competes too often either, he chooses the tournaments. Since golf and figure skating is an individual sport, yes the fortunate ones who are famous and has $$$ maybe able to choose. So some of their detractors lose "allegedly" respect for them, but honestly, even if they compete more, I don't think their detractors will really change their minds

[fadedstardust]

Yes that is my point exactl Axel Annie- Michelle will never have a quad, but she used to land 3/3's, so I think she could still land them if she really wanted to- she's used to landing them, and in competition, too. :D

[loveskating]

Well, in any case, I don't think you will ever see Michelle Kwan do anything remotely like say a 3 turn into a loop (Irina and others), or an Ina Baur into a Salchow (Sasha), or serpentine footwork into a 2 axel or a 3 flip jump (Sasha) or a spiral right into a 3 jump (Sarah Hughes) etc. etc.

She does steps into her second lutz and her flip. That's it. She may win at times, but the rise in level of difficulty that so far characterizes the COP will not be seen...IMHO...because if she could have done these things, I suspect she would have against Irina and Sarah to more comfortably compete with them. She never did.

She is still good enough to win some, is always a threat, but I doubt she can do what COP competitors these days require, and COP recognizes.

[Tamwheel]

The COP rewards attempts and not really falls. which is weird. You could fall on every jump and still get credit for your 8 falls. Then if your other points are high enought, you could still win over a person who didn't fall. Unlikely but possible. Skaters like Kwan and Cohen who get bonus points for all their other elements could do this. But it really won't enhance the idea that this is a sport. It beomes like ice dance where they are awarding gold to "overall quality" rather than actual performance. You'll see a lot less changes in the final standing( that is when all the points from both phases are counted) of skaters from competition to competition because theoreticallyif this system works consistently, a skater should get the SAME SCORE at every event with the same program. Maybe 3 or 4 points knocked off at most. Maybe even a lock-step system will develop as it had in dance.

[Tamwheel]

I think Sasha would have won because she would have built a lead up in the first two sections. She was better in the Qual and SP compared to the others than Michelle and Shizuka were better than her in the FS.



I agree that Sasha would have won because they wouldn't have had huge deductions for her obvious jump errors, and her bonus points for the charlotte and stuff would have been huge, but then, if the freeskate performance doesn't count this sport will be ever so much more predictable because falls won't determine the winner. it will be based on "overall quality" and style and those DON'T change significantly from performance to performance.

BUT IF COP is implemented correctly, they should be looking at her Lutz/flip more closely.

[3ggi3]

I have a different take on the Michelle situation. I don't think the truth is that she doesn't want to up the technical ante and doesn't want to compete under COP. I think she's maxed. I don't think she can do any more difficult 3/3's and I think she is getting too old to compete for a full season in the GP. She practiced difficult 3/3's and she hurt her back. She attempted more difficult spins and other moves for COP and she hurt her back. She's not going to come out and say this, of course. But I don't think her body can take it. I also don't think Sasha can do a 3/3 or a quad in a program and still skate well. But she is not going to state that either. Sorry, I may be wrong, of course, but that's my honest opinion on both ladies.

As for the original question, I think Michelle will be fine under COP. If Shizuka skates like she did at worlds, I don't think anyone can beat her. She has everything but spins-- she has the jumps, the choreography the edges and the coach. But if Michelle skates to the best of her ability and even gets back the 3 toe/3 toe (so she can have 7 triples), there are only 2 or 3 skaters that can beat her, and they would have to have one of the best performances of their lives to do it.

By the way, someone mentioned that Sasha seems to be following Michelle's strategy. I have noticed this more and more in the last few years. So, who thinks that if Sasha has a great season and wins either nat's or worlds, she will stay out of the GP series next season?



I like your second paragraph, and I agree that MK could use the 3/3 again.
Hopefully she gets it back! I would rather see Fumie win than Shizuka, though (or MK of course!)!

[AxelAnnie22]

Hmm.. there is a chance you are right, I wonder what the odds makers at Las Vegas will give to your prediction. So if you are right, you can brag about we heard it here first. If you are not, i.e. if Michelle competes at worlds 2005, even if she comes in dead last, then you can choose the kind of eggs you want to apply on your face, (no one will throw darts at you, no need for the kevlar vest), it a self monitor honor system. I am too timid to make predictions, I never know what the skate gods will do.


That's pretty funny. I choose eggs from free range chickens. (I do live in Petaluma, you know, and we are known -or used to be) as the Chicken Capitol of the World---so we are very particular about our eggs.)


BTW, when did Amber up her ante?

Has Amber always had the 3/3 in her short? I did not think so. My point re Amber is not that she does a good job, just that she keeps putting herself out there, year after year, with very few props.

Jennifer Robinson, tried some 3/3 (way underrotated) but she had not improved much or up the ante on her basic skating skills. I love her skating, and I wonder why with a clean program, her short was placed behind Sasha's flawed sp at SA 2001, and people were telling me, "Jennifer was so SLOW"
It was my understanding that in the buildup to SLC, JR worked very hard on her speed and consistency, and had made some nice strides


Angela, kept competing, when did she up her ante?
Angela completely re-invented her skating three years ago, (as did Irina before that),and I consider that "upping the ante". Angela had her best skates during that time, and until her beloved coach died. For some skaters, upping the ante is not just the technical arsenal (as it would be for Michelle) but the presentation mark (as it was with Irina).


Jennifer was Canadian national champions for years, I am very sure she has tons of fame with the Canadian folks. Maria kept competing to prove a point to the Russian federations. I wonder if she made more money as eligible or as a pro? Weiss is one of the top US male skaters, I won't say he is not famous here. Amber and Angela unfortunately have to compete in a deep USA field, I agree they must love to compete. OTOH if a skaters has fame and $$ and still chooses to compete, I can't say she does not love to compete.
I don't see Tiger Woods competes too often either, he chooses the tournaments. Since golf and figure skating is an individual sport, yes the fortunate ones who are famous and has $$$ maybe able to choose. So some of their detractors lose "allegedly" respect for them, but honestly, even if they compete more, I don't think their detractors will really change their minds
Let me clarify my point. IMO, skaters who keep on putting themselves out there, regardless of the money, medals or fame, a la Maria, Andrea, Jennifer, demonstrate (through their actions) their love to compete.

Again, IMO, Michelle likes to compete...at her pace, on her terms, and where she is fairly certain she will be atop the podium, which is why I think she just might not show up at a CoP event. I am not saying that is bad (or good). The fact that she does not compete in the GP, IMO, belies the "loves to compete" label. (Again, not bad or good). Very similar to Tiger Woods...the difference is, you don't hear Tiger saying (as many skaters do) that "I am just out here competing for myself" or his fans saying that "he just loves to compete." LOL! Tiger competes to win, and to maintain his first place standing (which he just lost), and to keep the $$$ coming in. And, it is his job, and he likes his job.

[doris]

Has Amber always had the 3/3 in her short? I did not think so. My point re Amber is not that she does a good job, just that she keeps putting herself out there, year after year, with very few props.

Corwin had the 3toe-3toe in the long since 1996; 3-3 combinations weren't allowed in the short until the 1997 season, and since then she has used it as her SP combination more often than not.

She did try 3lutz-3toe at Nebelhorn a few years ago, so that was "upping the ante," but she hasn't attempted it consistently as with the toe-toe.

As for Robinson, didn't she add 3sal-3toe and/or 3sal-3loop attempts in the last few years of her career?

[Kemy]

As to your concern about attempts being counted...you have to remember that without full rotation of a jump, it will be counted as a poorly executed jump of the lower level. No skater at the senior level could win with -3 GOE double jump falls, especially since each fall causes an automatic deduction from Components, thus hurting their ability to use components to catch up. Unless everyone is equally bad, it is essentially impossible for anyone to win with more than 1 fall unless you take leads from one program to another into account.

Not necessarily. There have been falls this year that were given full credit for being fully-rotated, so more than one fall is possible...especially if you make it up in other areas. The COP does not penalize the falls on jumps as much as the 6.0 system did. Also, you would only get the 1.00 deduction IF your butt was on the ice and both feet are not.

[likes2skate]

I'm picking up an anti-Sasha trend in your posting, you exaggerate her flaws greatly, from the way you speak one would not get that Sasha is one of the greatest skaters in history. And I do think the judges have tended to mark Sasha's lutz lower on GOE for the edge issues, so it isn't going unpunished, it just isn't THAT big of a deal, it is only one part of a jump. And I'd really like to know what other jump she has obvious jump errors on.

As to your concern about attempts being counted...you have to remember that without full rotation of a jump, it will be counted as a poorly executed jump of the lower level. No skater at the senior level could win with -3 GOE double jump falls, especially since each fall causes an automatic deduction from Components, thus hurting their ability to use components to catch up. Unless everyone is equally bad, it is essentially impossible for anyone to win with more than 1 fall unless you take leads from one program to another into account.

I think the "obvious errors" Tamwheel is talking about would be she did not do the second part of the 3/2 combo because of the very wonky landing on the lutz (I think), and also she messed up and almost fell on her sal. They were pretty obvious mistakes.

In COP, I don't think these errors would have cost her the championship.

[hiliairyh]

That's pretty funny. I choose eggs from free range chickens. (I do live in Petaluma, you know, and we are known -or used to be) as the Chicken Capitol of the World---so we are very particular about our eggs.)

There you go, actually I hope you won't end up applying eggs on your face, if you prove to be a good predictor, I may even consult you next time I go to Vegas.

We will have to agree to disagree whether Jennifer, Weiss, Maria, Angela really made an effort to up their ante. Sorry, at least for Robinson, I watched her compete in a GP event prior to SLC, I did not see any strides or effort in upping the ante of basic skating. She was beautiful beyond belief in the dream of love program wearing a white wedding dress with pearls. She tried some 3s/3l in practice, so did Michelle Kwan in that competition practice, both landed their triple loop under rotated. Actually Kwan even landed a triple lutz/ triple loop in practice standing up. Kwan attempted triple lutz/ triple loop at skate canada long program leading up to SLC, and she fell

Very similar to Tiger Woods...the difference is, you don't hear Tiger saying (as many skaters do) that "I am just out here competing for myself" or his fans saying that "he just loves to compete." LOL! Tiger competes to win, and to maintain his first place standing (which he just lost), and to keep the $$$ coming in. And, it is his job, and he likes his job.

I don't watch Tiger enough to know what he said. I think all skaters say I compete for myself. I don't know what Tiger fans say either. Maybe you have kept up with his fans.

[hiliairyh]

I'm picking up an anti-Sasha trend in your posting, you exaggerate her flaws greatly, from the way you speak one would not get that Sasha is one of the greatest skaters in history.


:lol: :lol: Posters who exagerate skaters flaws, and do not give enough credit and respect for some of the greatest skaters in history. What an amazing insight. Ya know, some posters do have a habit of grossly exagerating their least favorite skater's flaws, nit picking every turn, holding a grudge to every mark, e.g. 6.0 etc ;)

[AxelAnnie22]

I don't watch Tiger enough to know what he said. I think all skaters say I compete for myself. I don't know what Tiger fans say either. Maybe you have kept up with his fans.
Has anyone, in any other sport (except maybe gymnastics) heard the athelete say "Oh I don't care about the score, the medal, or the win"?

Can you just hear Jerry Rice say in his after game interview, regarding his fumbled catch - "Oh, I just came today to put my game out there, and see what the people thought. The score is really not important to me. I just came to do my best". :roll:

[fadedstardust]

Just because you compete for yourself doesn't mean you don't hope that your personal best is good enough for a medal. But no, if you've been well trained mentally, you don't think about the medal. You just think about doing your absolute personal best. If you don't, this sport will break you.

[Rachel]

Has anyone, in any other sport (except maybe gymnastics) heard the athelete say "Oh I don't care about the score, the medal, or the win"? :roll:

Maybe not that, but I don't hear skaters say that much, either. Skaters like the infamous "I'm just here to do my best" and "I only really compete against myself, trying to do better every time."

And yeah, I've heard athletes say things like that. I always suspect it gives them something to say beside the crass "I wanna kick some butt!" and the egocentric (and potentially crow-creating) "I am going to win!"

[Tamwheel]

I'm picking up an anti-Sasha trend in your posting, you exaggerate her flaws greatly, from the way you speak one would not get that Sasha is one of the greatest skaters in history. And I do think the judges have tended to mark Sasha's lutz lower on GOE for the edge issues, so it isn't going unpunished, it just isn't THAT big of a deal, it is only one part of a jump. And I'd really like to know what other jump she has obvious jump errors on.


You really shouldn't accuse people of an "anti-Sasha trend" when you reveal your own Pro-Sasha whitewash. Anyone who paid any attention to Worlds would realize that Sasha's jumps were NOT welll executed. Her first "lutz" was landed on an outside edge...that's not correct technique and yes it's a deductible error. These are the kind of quality points that COP is SPECIFIALLY supposed to pick up on. Let's not even get into the takeoff edges on her Lutz.

You also have no proof that "judges have tended to mark Sasha's lutz lower on GOE for the edge issues" if so I would like to hear it. Sasha has been winning short programs with a mere Triple Lutz-double over skaters who are doing triple Lutz-triples. How anyone could justify a first-place 2004 worlds placement over a 5 triple program and obvious errors over what Arakawa did is simply incomprehesible.



I think the "obvious errors" Tamwheel is talking about would be she did not do the second part of the 3/2 combo because of the very wonky landing on the lutz (I think), and also she messed up and almost fell on her sal. They were pretty obvious mistakes.

In COP, I don't think these errors would have cost her the championship.

You must also have an "anti-Sasha trend" like me because we are apparently the only ones who can see her obvious mistakes. And no, it wouldn't have cost her much as her bonus points would have have more than made up for any little deductions.

Unless everyone is equally bad, it is essentially impossible for anyone to win with more than 1 fall unless you take leads from one program to another into account.

No it's not impossible at all. There are many OTHER elements where COP will easily allow you to pick up the 3 points per fall in BONUS. It's clearly not impossible at all!




Not necessarily. There have been falls this year that were given full credit for being fully-rotated, so more than one fall is possible...especially if you make it up in other areas. The COP does not penalize the falls on jumps as much as the 6.0 system did. Also, you would only get the 1.00 deduction IF your butt was on the ice and both feet are not.

EXACTLY.

[AxelAnnie22]

Maybe not that, but I don't hear skaters say that much, either. Skaters like the infamous "I'm just here to do my best" and "I only really compete against myself, trying to do better every time."

And yeah, I've heard athletes say things like that. I always suspect it gives them something to say beside the crass "I wanna kick some butt!" and the egocentric (and potentially crow-creating) "I am going to win!"

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Or, the very popular "I am the greatest!" :bow:

[loveskating]

Sasha tends to dig her toepick in when she slightly overrotates a jump to stabillize herself...not exactly landing on the wrong edge, just a little woggle. I saw her close up do this at Campbells last year with the 2 axel, and it was HUGE, so she got some credit for that, even if a slight drag on the landing with the toepick.

I don't mind anyone pointing out Sasha's flutz...but at the same time, if you look at the COP standards there are several parts to any jump being evaluated, and Sasha's air position is usually stellar, among the best, as to "proper backspin position" in the air; furthermore, she enters both lutzs with steps; she also has had difficult jump entries in the past, like serpentine footwork into flip and 2 axel, this program showed Ina Bauer into 3 sal, whereas, Kwan, for instance, only has steps into lutzes and flip.

Also, others flutz...Kwan flutzes most of the time on both lutzes, and Irina, even sometimes flutzes.

I think Arakawa beat Sasha at last Worlds, but without Sasha's mistakes, its not impossible that Sasha could have beat her because element for element, Sasha was considerably better than Arakawa (spirals, spins, like the layback, duh) or anyone else, for that matter. Still, I'd feel better if Sasha had a 3/3...she can do it. Arakawa is not nearly as fluid as Sasha, although she is fluid.

Sasha won the SP at Worlds precisely because she skated to almost perfection and her overall quality per elements was very clear, despite some 3/3s in the SP by others. Except for that darned flutz, Sasha has a remarkably high level of quality on all her elements, including a really stellar flip jump and salchow, not to mention a great, totally pure 2 axel.

ISU Web SIte:
"Jumps
Four Phases:
(a) preparation
(b) take-off
(c) rotation (flight)
(d) landing

Minor problems in three or more phases described in (-1) or majorproblems in two or more phases described in (-2) or any of the following individual errors:
- fall;
- severe change of edge on take-off of flip or lutz;
- lesser rotation than required

Minor problems in two phases described in (- 1) or major problem in one phase of the jump eg.
- slightly underrotated either on take-off or landing (1/4 turn or less);
- moderate change of edge on take-off of flip or lutz;
- touch with two hands;
- step out of landing;
- land on two feet

Minor problem in one phase of the
jump eg. - touch down with one foot or one hand;
- long preparation phase (telegraphed);
- short change of edge in take-off of flip or lutz;
- weak landing I saw
(land on wrong edge or toe, etc.)

All jump phases completed satisfactorily; ie. average length preparation phase;
-adequate height and distance;
-organized/ vertical air position, completed revolution;
-clean landing; sufficient flow in and out

Good technique on at least three phases of the jump described in base value or
- a jump of base value with varied position in the air or delay in rotation
- good flow in and acceptable flow out of the jump

Good or very good technique and execution in all phases of the jump
- consistent flow in and out of the jump

- Superior in all jump phases (eg. unexpected or difficult entry phase, great height/distance, strong flow in and out and superior extension on landing)

[hiliairyh]

Has anyone, in any other sport (except maybe gymnastics) heard the athelete say "Oh I don't care about the score, the medal, or the win"?

Can you just hear Jerry Rice say in his after game interview, regarding his fumbled catch - "Oh, I just came today to put my game out there, and see what the people thought. The score is really not important to me. I just came to do my best". :roll:

I don't know about Woods, but Mickelson mentioned many times that he just does his own game, etc.

Rice plays in a team sport, I think that is very different from individual sports like skating, golf or gymnastics.

Woods was at Lenos show last night, he said he is #2, still top 10, he wants to win. I believe Tiger is still picking and choosing the tournaments he wants to participate, I bet those are majors. Individual sports allow athletes to do that, team sports do not

[Kemy]

You also have no proof that "judges have tended to mark Sasha's lutz lower on GOE for the edge issues" if so I would like to hear it. Sasha has been winning short programs with a mere Triple Lutz-double over skaters who are doing triple Lutz-triples. How anyone could justify a first-place 2004 worlds placement over a 5 triple program and obvious errors over what Arakawa did is simply incomprehesible.

She was consistently getting GOE's of -1, 0 and 1 from the judges on the lutz combo in the short (and I think the long), with the majority being -1 and 0. I believe that Sasha won those short programs because Shizuka was not getting credit for them because of the underrotation, which is seen as much worse than a wrong edge and actually downgraded.

Skate America Detailed SP Score (http://www.isufs.org/results/sa2003/sa03_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf)
Skate America Detailed LP Score (http://www.isufs.org/results/sa2003/sa03_Ladies_FP_Scores.pdf)
Skate Canada Detailed SP Score (http://www.isufs.org/results/sc2003/sc03_Ladies_SP_Scores.pdf)
Skate Canada Detailed LP Score (http://www.isufs.org/results/sc2003/sc03_Ladies_FP_Scores.pdf)
Trophee Lalique Detailed SP Score (http://www.isufs.org/results/tll2003/tll03_ladies_sp_scores.pdf)
Trophee Lalique Detailed LP Score (http://www.isufs.org/results/tll2003/tll03_ladies_fp_scores.pdf)
GPF Detailed SP Score (http://www.isufs.org/results/gpf0304/gpf0304_ladies_sp_scores.pdf)
GPF Detailed LP Score (http://www.isufs.org/results/gpf0304/gpf0304_ladies_fp_scores.pdf)


No it's not impossible at all. There are many OTHER elements where COP will easily allow you to pick up the 3 points per fall in BONUS. It's clearly not impossible at all!
It's a lot more than just 3 points though, but you can still make up in other elements. Sasha got -3's on three elements (SP and LP) last year and still only lost by 4.5 points to Fumie who had the skates of her life to win it.

[Kemy]

I don't know where this idea came from, but I do not think Sasha should have beaten Shizuka in the Worlds' FREE. I'm the first to admit that Shizuka won that section. My claim was that between the Qual and the SP, Sasha would have had a lead of more than Shizuka won the FS by thus making Sasha the champion. So I think you are overreacting Tamwheel.

I'll have to disagree here. Shizuka's program at World's was far more COP friendly than Sasha's Swan Lake makeover. We'll never know the outcome if Sasha had kept her COP program.

[Tamwheel]

I don't know where this idea came from, but I do not think Sasha should have beaten Shizuka in the Worlds' FREE. I'm the first to admit that Shizuka won that section. My claim was that between the Qual and the SP, Sasha would have had a lead of more than Shizuka won the FS by thus making Sasha the champion. So I think you are overreacting Tamwheel.

I think 2 of the judges at worlds thought that Sasha's free was better than Shizuka even under the 6.0 system (!?) That is completely ridiculous and undermines the idea of skating as a sport. Now under the COP system, I could easily see Sasha winning the free section if you told a monkey on the streets to rank the elements and they added it up according to their point system. Sasha would easily gain bonus points on her spins, spiral, probably footwork and should take it.

I think COP will bring up the overall quality of skating and programs we see from skater as everyone seeks to maximize their points in the details, but now the results SHOULD BE as predictable as ice dance because we know the elements and most elements are routinely performed with NO TROUBLE AT ALL except the jumps and that's a small percentage of the total with relatively small fall deductions. How many times has a skater messed up their spiral or footwork versus jumps? no comparison where the risk is.

[Mariadonna]

Since the original thread topic was how Michelle will do under the CoP, I think she will not do well and has been avoiding it pretty much. Her spins and laybacks are not top level, her in-betweens are sparse and of course, she hasn't done a 3/3 in years. Presentation and edging were fine under the 6.0 but nobody can save her a spot now so it will be really interesting to see if she even goes to Worlds. She will do Nat's of course because it is her 6.0 domain. I love the CoP. :bow:

[hiliairyh]

I don't know where this idea came from, but I do not think Sasha should have beaten Shizuka in the Worlds' FREE. I'm the first to admit that Shizuka won that section. My claim was that between the Qual and the SP, Sasha would have had a lead of more than Shizuka won the FS by thus making Sasha the champion.

Since both Shizuka and Sasha won their qual, Sasha beat Shizuka in the sp, and Shizuka beat Sasha at the free. The free is a lot longer than the sp. Where on earth can you come up with the idea that Sasha should beat Shizuka overall. You weren't even there to watch the quali.

[Kemy]

Ummm...Back to the topic again,

I heard that in an interview she stated that Alexander Lakernik, Chairman of the ISU's Technical Committee, spent a week with Michelle to evaluate the levels of her spins and such...so at least she's trying.

[hiliairyh]

Qualifying under CoP isn't done in groups with equally assigned values by placement. Sasha was better than Shizuka in the Qualifying thus she would have scored higher than Shizuka and carried that lead into the SP where she would increase it and have a big enough lead to cover the difference in the FS.



Where did you ge the idea that Sasha was better than Shizuka at quali, they did not skate head to head. Were you there, did you watch the quali on tv? Oh wait if you were there, I am sure as expected you will come to the same conclusion that Sasha was better,. ;) Since they did not skate head to head in the quali, then I will have to disagree with your assessment that Sasha was better. It is a big we don't know. Maybe Sasha was better, maybe she was not