Assuming Michelle skips Nationals and Worlds.....

[originalQA]

.....who will win?
I am assuming that she would win Nationals but not Worlds necessarily.

I am going to go out on a limb and say Nationals will look like this:

1) Sasha
2) Sarah
3) AP
4) Beatrisa
5) Jenny

And Worlds:

1) Sarah
2) Irina
3) Sasha
4) Fumie
5) Julia S.

What are your ideas/thoughts?

And I know these types of Posts are done all the time, but I was not able to find this specific Topic in the recent past..... :D

[Dustin]

I would say Nationals would look like:

1. Sasha
2. Sarah
3. Jenny
4. Angela
5. Ann Patrice

I don't think anyone can predict worlds at this point. There are too many things that could happen next season.

[AxelAnnie22]

[color=blue:0f6d0837f5]NATIONALS:

Sasha
Sarah
Angela
Jenny
AP

I would reverse Angela and Sarah, but I think the USFSA would be hard pressed to sent the Olympic Champion off to Worlds in third place.

WORLDS

Sasha
Irina
Angela/Sarah

As you can see, I think Angela and Sasha are going to have break-away years!
[/color:0f6d0837f5]

[duane]

Nationals:

1. Sasha/Sarah
2. Sarah/Sasha
3. Angela

(i think both sasha and sarah would skate cleanly, but IMO the National judges--who have already shown their preference for sasha over sarah--would give sasha the gold. but at the same time, with sarah being the reigning Olympic champion, perhaps they'd give sarah the nod).

Worlds:

1. Sarah (i see her being HUNGRY to win her 1st World gold. also, as the reigning Olympic champion, she'll get "brownie" points from the international judges).
2. Sasha (she'll be equally hungry to win her first World medal, but sarah's consistency and reputation would win out)
3. irina (?) (next season, i dont see irina being as hungry as sarah and sasha, especially since she's now won the elusive World gold)

[Debbie S]

Not to sound totally cynical here, but Worlds depends on who's on the judging panel - and of course, we won't even know which judges' scores are counted w/the new system. If the scores that end up counting are from former E. bloc judges, than I suspect Irina will win unless she has a couple mistakes or at least one fall. Sarah's scores will probably depend on whether she can land 2 3/3s again and/or how much "credit" the judges will give her being Oly champ. And of course, there are the flutz and underrrotation issues, assuming she still has them. We've seen that Sasha tends to get the nod from both U.S. and int'l judges (Nats this year and Oly SP), but Sasha NEEDS to get some consistency to be able to win. If Sarah can land 2 3/3s again, she'll likely win, assuming a balanced judging panel, but if Sarah and Sasha each land one 3/3, and Sarah still has some tech problems, I'll put my money (figuratively speaking) on Sasha.

I would love for Angela to have a great year and win Nats and Worlds (if MK's not competing), but I think the others would each have to make major mistakes for that to happen. A post on MKF the other day said that she's been practicing really well, looks very happy and will have her programs done by Lori Nichol (and if Lori turns her into a Michelle clone, I'll scream), so it seems like she's in for a great season. I would love to see her win some big titles.

[rack]

I know the premise for this discussion is that Michelle skips Nationals, but I'm not convinced she'd win if she did compete there.

The US judges clearly love Sasha, who is coached by highly respected John Nicks. Sarah enters Nationals as Olympic gold medalist (and media darling); her coach just won Coach of the Year. And if Angela really improves under Frank Carroll's tutelege, I think it quite possible the US judges would want to reward him and her for sticking it out and getting better.

Michelle deserved to win Nationals in 2002; nothing was handed to her. But she has yet to commit to a coach, is apparently not going to skate in the Grand Prix events, and failed to win either Olympics or Worlds in what was for her a lackluster season. That doesn't put her in a particularly strong position going into Nationals in 2003.

If Sasha, Sarah, Angela, and Michelle all skate their best, or if all four of them make major errors, I suspect the judging panel will be all over the place and any one of the four could win.

[RoseAugust]

I won't predict, because I can't. However, I'm thinking that Angela will be in the top three at Nationals, along with Sasha and Sarah. It's hard to predict because Angela and Sasha haven't been as consistent as Sarah, but Sarah has some technique problems. All are wonderful and worthy of the title.

I'm surprised that Fumie hasn't been mentioned yet in the World's predictions. She was one of my highlights at the Sacramento COI. She doesn't skate with the power of Michelle or Irina, or with the flair of Sasha, but she skated an ambitious program very well, with good speed and beautiful spins. She could very well make the podium again.

[loveskating]

I can't predict either...but I think the top U.S. skaters are Sasha, Sarah, Angela and MK if she stays in...and I'm real interested in seeing how A.P. McDonaugh and Jenny Kirk have progressed. I don't think anyone has a lock, but as to accomplishment on the ice, I think its Sasha Cohen who has accomplished the most so I'd like to see her be rewarded.

Internationally, I just don't know other than Irina. Fumie is really good, but leaves something to be desired in the sureness of movement aspect of presentation... and her program did not seem "fully loaded" to me (lots connecting elements and footwork woven in), seemed to glide around a lot, but that is just not as hard, although an argument could be made that its prettier, I suppose.

[Intensity20]

I agree with many of you that it's really hard to predict - none of us have seen Sasha, Sarah, Angela or Irina's (for that matter) new programs for 2002-2003. Based on last season and training reports, however, I'll make some early guesses:

*U.S. Nationals*

1. Sasha/Sarah
2. Sarah/Sasha
3. Angela
4. Ann Patrice
5. Jennifer

*World Championships*

1. Sasha/Sarah
2. Sarah/Sasha
3. Irina
4. Fumie
5. Vanessa?/Julia S./Angela/Yelena S./Elena L.

[originalQA]

I did not mention Angela in my Top 5 at Nationals because I do not think she will be going. Call it intuition.
Plus, isn't 2003 Worlds in D.C.?
If what Maria says is true (see "Maria B. Interview" Topic), Irina may as well stay home.
We all know that the Host country is given the Gold..... (slight sarcasm) :wink:
All sarcasm aside, I think with Worlds being in the U.S., and we have seen that the International judges favor Sarah over Sasha, I think that Sarah has it sewed up, with a decent skate.....

[Dustin]

[quote:86742c4962="originalQA"]All sarcasm aside, I think with Worlds being in the U.S., and we have seen that the International judges favor Sarah over Sasha, I think that Sarah has it sewed up, with a decent skate.....[/quote:86742c4962]

What would that be based on? I believe they have only done comparable programs twice (2000 Nations Cup and 2002 Olympics short programs), and once Sarah came out on top and once Sasha came out on top. However, with Sarah winning the Olympic gold, we will have to see...

[speedy]

I didn't realize Worlds were in Russia last year. ;)

[loveskating]

[quote:e447471612="Debbie S"]If Sarah can land 2 3/3s again, she'll likely win, assuming a balanced judging panel, but if Sarah and Sasha each land one 3/3, and Sarah still has some tech problems, I'll put my money (figuratively speaking) on Sasha.[/quote:e447471612]

I'm thinking just adding it up broadly that it will take 2 3/3s in the LP for Sarah (unless the underlying issues in her skating have been resolved) to beat Irina, Sasha, Angela (assuming clean skates by all).

IMHO, in the field, Sarah is a 5th or 6th (6th if MK is around) place SP skater if the mandatory deductions were actually applied (which it seems, sometimes they are, sometimes they are not)....which makes it very hard for her to win the LP without two 3/3s. And what does one 3/3 add up to without a lutz combination?

It will be interesting to see how it goes.

Of course, if skating is not about skating, but about global politics, then the politics this season are little different than they were last season.

[Yazmeen]

My bet would be:

1. Sarah
2. Sasha
3. Ann Patrice

One and two could easily be reversed: I 'm giving Sarah the "Olympic benefit of the doubt" but if Sasha is "on," Sarah will have to be her absolute best. I don't know why, but I think AP is going to have a good year. I like Jenny Kirk, but AP has better technique and more overall, natural grace.

As for Angela--she could be a spoiler if she skates well. I would just LOVE to see her win a National Championship!!!

[AxelAnnie22]

[quote:2467b93b7f="Yazmeen"]
I like Jenny Kirk, but AP has better technique and more overall, natural grace. [/quote:2467b93b7f]

[color=darkblue:2467b93b7f]I quite agree. I think that the two, side by side, with equal content, leaves AP way ahead. She has a lovely elegance on the ice, as well as the natural grace you mention.[/color:2467b93b7f]


[quote:2467b93b7f]
As for Angela--she could be a spoiler if she skates well. I would just LOVE to see her win a National Championship!!![/quote:2467b93b7f][color=blue:2467b93b7f]Be still my heart! That would make my day!![/color:2467b93b7f] :lol: :lol:

[Show 42]

It would make my day to see Angela on top of the podium, but sorry to say my faith in her has faltered. She's a gorgeous skater and one of my favorites, but her inconsistancy leaves me frustrated. My next hope would be Sasha on the top step followed by Jenny, Sarah, or A.P.

[NancyNC]

I read an article recently (that I will try to find the link for) that said Frank Carroll had determined that the reason Angela always "fizzles out" (my term not his) was that she starts her long program really fast and basically runs out of steam. He was working on her pacing and thought that could really make a difference. If that is the problem and they can fix the pacing, then I have great hopes she could really make a breakthrough.

[ILoveAllSkaters]

If Michelle isn't there, I'd like to see Sasha win nationals. :) And Irina could be a two-time world champion also.

That's what I'd like. :)

*Edited to add: My original post is on topic. But as I also like Michelle, this isn't meant to be a bash. :)